The Cardinals started 2-0, and it’s only gotten weird after that.
Of Arizona’s five straight losses, none have been by more than four points, despite matching up with playoff contenders in the Packers, Colts, Seahawks and 49ers. The apex of bizarre came in their Week 5 loss to the Titans, which was infamous when it happened, and might be even more so if it’s the lone win Tennessee gets this season.
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If you want “weird”, the Cowboys have a tie on their 3-4-1 record and that wasn’t even their Week 2 overtime game with the Giants, where Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards — still the wackiest single-game stat line of the season.
As strange as both teams’ season has been on the field, the Cardinals – off a bye – come to Dallas not entirely sure whether they’re any better with their franchise QB Kyler Murray, at the helm for the game, or with journeyman Jacoby Brissett taking the snaps. Since, despite the questionable tag for Murray this past week, the point spread barely flinched off a key number in the opening line, only to come back again.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 53.5)
Here’s what the betting market thinks of the Cardinals quarterback room:
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After opening at Cowboys -3, the line dropped to -2.5 on the hope that Kyler Murray would start for Arizona. When it was announced that Murray wasn’t quite ready for full-time duty, the line ticked back up to -3. That establishes the implied win probability difference between having Murray (+115 money line) or Brissett (+145 money line) at about 6%.
Since being forced into action in Week 6, Brissett has completed 64% of his passes, for four touchdowns to just one interception, and an average of 7.4 yards per attempt. That’s compared to Murray’s 6.0 YPA, and 6:3 TD:INT ratio. PFF has Brissett graded as the 14th-best quarterback in the NFL from this small sample size, compared to 17th for Murray, even giving Brissett the nod in rush efficiency. That’s likely because Murray is more apt to miss a big play because of a quick exit from the pocket, while also being more likely to take a sack or turn it over.
Essentially, outside of the future projections due to age and measurable physical talents, there isn’t any hard data to suggest that the downgrade to Brissett should be worth even 6%. In this case, that means we’re capturing a full field goal with an underdog who’s done nothing but play close games all season long.
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Even if their record suggests they might be a worse team than the Cowboys, we all know how vulnerable the Dallas defense is to any remotely-healthy offense, and Brissett has all his weapons in the passing game. Meanwhile, Jonathan Gannon’s defense is seventh in opponent’s EPA/play during neutral game state (with neither team having a win probability of 70-plus percent) and after filtering for high-leverage turnover plays.
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This means that while the Cardinals aren’t going to shut the Cowboys down, they can slow them enough so that their own offense can go to work in what should be a coin-flip game.
Finally, Dallas is a 3-point favorite because their rating in the market is still at a high point for a team that came into the season with a regular win total of 7.5, but is now considered an above-average team. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (8.5 wins) were considered an above-average team, but, between the close losses and the quarterback change, the market has sold Arizona to the bottom-end of their range. That’s a buy signal on the Cards for Monday night.
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Pick: Cardinals +3
Player propsJacoby Brissett over 23.5 pass completions (-105)
With most teams finding the Dallas secondary more like a wide-open range, why do anything but throw?
The Cardinals’ running back injuries are well-documented, and since Brissett took over he’s completed 25 and 27 passes in games against good offensive teams — the Colts and Packers. In both instances, the Cardinals were underdogs, but actually had the lead going into the fourth quarter, and were still compelled to throw it as much as they did. In a game that carries such a high total, we’ll expect more of the same, worried only about the Cardinals scoring on drives with too few plays against the porous Cowboys defense.
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Dak Prescott longest pass completion under 37.5 yards (-115)
We might have to dodge a late bullet on this one, as the Cardinals have given up a few long pass completions late. Fourth quarter back-breakers to Calvin Ridley and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in single-coverage come to mind, but Arizona’s actually only allowed a reception of more than 37 yards once this season (Tetairoa McMillan in Week 2).
That may be due to a veteran safety combo of Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker, but the reason this line is so high is because of the Cowboys’ duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. They’re intimidating, but they’ve combined for four long receptions in 12 combined games played this season. Gannon’s familiar with Prescott and Lamb from his Eagles’ days, and coming out of the bye week, Arizona should have a plan to limit the big play.
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Jake Ferguson over 39.5 receiving yards (-110)
We haven’t seen the Cardinals in prime time since a Week 4 loss to the Seahawks, where backing the opposing tight end was profitable, as both AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo went over their receiving yard prop totals. Not exactly household names, they were able to take advantage of a Cardinals defense that has allowed the fourth-most receptions and yards to opposing tight ends.
Anytime touchdownZonovan Knight (+115)
It’s pretty simple: If a team’s No. 1 running back is plus-money to score, and he’s facing a vulnerable defense that could put the ball on the 1-yard due to a desperation penalty in coverage in the end zone, then even if you didn’t know “Bam” Knight’s given name, Zonovan’s still worth a bet to score.
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Michael Wilson (+260)
He doesn’t jump off the depth chart with a famous name, or have a particularly memorable handle, but third-year receiver Michael Wilson plays just as much as Harrison – and has just one fewer red zone target and one less touchdown.
Wilson is likely priced this long because he has the third-most targets on the Cardinals, but his chances to score increase because Murray isn’t in there to try his hand at running nearing the goal line. Plus, he seems to be a favorite of Brissett, as seven of his 15 receptions this season have come in the two games started by the vet.
Jake Ferguson (+130)
In keeping with the theory that the Cardinals struggle to defend the tight end, leaving the middle of the field open, we might as well back a player who seems to score every game anyway, at plus-money. Before the Broncos kept Ferguson out of the end zone last week in a game he missed some time due to a minor injury, the Dallas tight end had six touchdowns, scoring in four consecutive games.
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Kavontae Turpin (+425)
Turpin started the season as an added element to this offense, with 17 touches (including a touchdown) in the first four games before missing two with an injury. Since returning, he hasn’t been in the mix as much, going from 20 to 30 snaps, instead of getting on the field 40-plus times before the injury.
Turpin’s ability to run the back of the end zone with unusual quickness makes him a good target for Dak Prescott, especially against a defense whose corners will have their hands full with CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and Ferguson.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.