As the NFL’s trade deadline approaches, let’s seek out some tasty trade targets around the fantasy landscape. More to the point, let’s showcase a way to maximize your trade value by getting ahead of some potential player performance trends.
By looking at a player’s rest-of-season (ROS) strength of schedule — including the fantasy playoffs — we can anticipate how players project over future weeks. So whether you’re looking to plug holes from losing players like Travis Hunter, Tucker Kraft and Jayden Daniels to injury, or just looking to bolster your roster’s strength, this type of analysis can help you get ahead of the curve to either buy low or sell high.
As with my weekly schedule strength series, my matchup points system uses various fantasy points and points-allowed metrics as a base. Then it factors in variables such as the likelihood of a team getting into a high-scoring game and pass blocking/pass rush strength. These combined grades are then placed on a curve and given a 1-100 score, with 1 being the least favorable and 100 being the most favorable.
Keep in mind that these grades are all based on fantasy-scoring relevance. For example, as detailed in my soft secondaries and the receivers who’ll benefit most from them in fantasy football article, a defensive back who has a strong yards per attempt (YPA) allowed but a low PPR fantasy points per game (FPPG) allowed will be graded as a favorable matchup in this system.
Unless otherwise mentioned, the statistics below are from TruMedia/PFF, NFL Next Gen Stats or Stathead; PPR scoring is used for point totals.
Players with most favorable ROS schedulesJared Goff, QB, DET
ROS grade: 100
Goff has been hit-or-miss this year, but he does have three games of 19+ points. He could have many more, with a schedule that has three favorable vertical pass coverage matchups, zero unfavorable vertical matchups and five potential scoreboard shootouts.
Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, RBs, NE
ROS grade: 100
Even with Stevenson out in Week 9, Henderson didn’t get bell-cow work. Filling in, Terrell Jennings got 11 carries to Henderson’s 14, though the latter was targeted six times in the passing game. New England’s backfield situation is unclear, but after an unfavorable Week 10 matchup, the Pats have four favorable and no unfavorable matchups. Given the disappointing Week 9 performance, you might even be able to add Henderson off waivers if his managers cut him loose.
Puka Nacua, WR, LAR
ROS grade: 100
Nacua’s elite scoring pace this year should continue against a schedule including six favorable cornerback matchups in Weeks 11-17. He suffered a rib injury in the Week 9 win over New Orleans, but that could make him attainable, since no savvy fantasy manager would likely part with him unless they’re scared he misses time. Even if he does, there is more than enough value through the rest of the season and playoffs to make up for it. If a manager in your league is willing to deal Nacua, be sure to make a fair offer that can close the deal.
Drake London, WR, ATL
ROS grade: 100
Considering trading high on London after his third game with 25+ points in six weeks may be very tempting. Don’t fall for that temptation. London has five favorable cornerback matchups over the next six weeks. Atlanta also has only two cornerbacks with shutdown coverage potential on the schedule in Weeks 11-17. Turn down any London trade offers and look for more games with 25+ points. If someone in your league makes the mistake of offering London in a trade, don’t hesitate.
Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
ROS grade: 100
If you are one of those managers who lost Kraft, Andrews should be very high on your trade priority list.
Andrews caught only three passes against Miami Thursday night, but two receptions were touchdowns. He’ll need more catches on a typical week to return value, but his ROS schedule indicates he will. Andrews has three favorable tight end coverage matchups and none that are unfavorable. He is one of five tight starting tight ends with zero unfavorable matchups and one of only three with three favorable matchups. Moreover, two of the favorable matchups are against a Cincinnati defense that has allowed a ridiculously high 28.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends since Week 6. Make a strong offer for him this week.
Players with least favorable ROS schedulesMatthew Stafford, QB, LAR
ROS grade: 1
While Nacua has great cornerback matchups ahead, Stafford’s ROS schedule isn’t so comforting, as the Rams have five unfavorable vertical pass matchups in Weeks 11-16. Los Angeles also has four unfavorable pass rush matchups in the next six weeks and only two games with a high potential for scoreboard shootouts. Those factors are more than enough to put Stafford on the trading block as a sell-high candidate after he’s posted 25 or more points in four of his last five games.
Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, RBs, TEN
ROS grade: 1
There won’t be much direct trade interest in Pollard and Spears following a Week 9 game where they combined for 17 fantasy points. The Titans are also headed into a Week 10 bye and have five negative rush defense matchups in Weeks 11-16. You don’t want any part of these two, even as add-ons in a trade. Do consider sending them away as add-ons to unsuspecting managers who need healthy RBs.
Kyren Williams, RB, LAR
ROS grade: 12
Williams just set a season high in carries and rush yards and it might be time to cash in on that superb performance. The Rams have five unfavorable rush defense matchups in Weeks 11-16 and zero favorable rush defense matchups the rest of the year. Move Williams, even if it doesn’t seem a noticeable improvement.
J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey, RBs, DEN
ROS grade: 12
Fantasy managers with playoff-caliber teams often start stacking rosters with players who have great postseason matchups. If you are one of those managers, take Dobbins and Harvey off your trade list. The Broncos have unfavorable rush defense matchups in Weeks 15-17 and won’t be much help for your playoff push.
Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS
ROS grade: 1
This may seem obvious given all McLaurin’s surrounding factors but the Commanders’ schedule makes him even less appealing, even as an add-on in a bigger trade package. Washington’s No. 1 WR is dealing with a quadriceps injury that has caused him to miss five games. He also won’t have Jayden Daniels for a while and possibly the rest of the season due to a left elbow injury in Sunday night’s game. If those aren’t reasons enough, McLaurin has four unfavorable cornerback matchups and a bye on his future schedule. Even beyond unloading him via trade, he’s someone you may even want to consider dropping in shallow leagues.