Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 10’s game between the Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders.

Mile High will glow under November primetime, breath turning silver as a rivalry stretches tight across thin air. Denver arrives 7–2 with nine straight home wins and a building that crackles when third downs clamp. Las Vegas limps in 2–6 after a one-point fall, roster trimmed and nerves tested by Tuesday’s trade. Brock Bowers returns roaring, Geno Smith leans on him, and Pete Carroll’s reboot hunts identity against Sean Payton’s cohesion. Altitude meets urgency as Bo Nix’s rise, Denver’s defensive steel, and a chippy history promise a bruising, consequential night. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 10’s game between the Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The Broncos average 25.9 points and 357.0 yards while allowing only 18.9 and 281.0. They pair 133.6 rushing yards per game with a quick-rhythm passing tree that bleeds stress into the flats and seams. Bo Nix has stacked 1,976 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions and a 58.1 QBR. His air-yard average sits at 3.4, and his time to throw hovers at 2.4 seconds, which erases hits before they land. Denver has surrendered only nine sacks in nine games and just 16 over its last 16. Garett Bolles has allowed pressure on 4.9% of pass snaps, Quinn Meinerz sits at 3.5%, and Mike McGlinchey at 7.0%. That lattice cancels chaos and lets yards after catch breathe; over 1,000 have come after the grab through nine weeks.

Ground rhythm gives this offense its heartbeat. J.K. Dobbins has 695 rushing yards at 5.1 per carry with four scores and at least 60 in eight of nine. RJ Harvey adds 205 rushing yards, 166 receiving yards, and six total touchdowns, with five coming since Week 7. Courtland Sutton leads with 566 yards and four touchdowns on 38 receptions, while Troy Franklin has 385 yards and four more across 37 catches. Nine different Broncos own 10-plus receptions, which spreads leverage and keeps tells off tape. Red-zone designs often tilt to Sutton and Harvey, which complements the line’s protection edge and Payton’s tempo toggles.

Las Vegas fights with effort but yields in structure. The Raiders score 14.7 per game and gain 276.0, ranking bottom three by overall offensive efficiency and last in rushing efficiency. Geno Smith owns 1,701 yards with 11 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, a 67.2% completion rate, and an 83.1 rating. He averages 7.1 yards per attempt but has taken 21 sacks and lost 156 yards to them. The bright flare returned last week when Brock Bowers detonated for 12 catches, 127 yards, and three touchdowns as Smith completed 74.4% for 284 and four scores. Ashton Jeanty offers dual-threat menace with 487 rushing yards, a 64-yard long, and three rushing scores plus 20 grabs and three more touchdowns, yet the ground game swings feast-or-famine. He has been stopped for no gain or loss on 38 carries, the most in the league, even while forcing 42 misses.

Denver’s defense sharpens near pay dirt. The group ranks first in red-zone touchdown rate allowed at 34.8% and graded first in defensive EPA per play early this season. The front mixes speed and length and stacks pressure without selling out. Nik Bonitto owns eight sacks, Jonathon Cooper seven, Zach Allen five, and John Franklin-Myers four, part of 28 total. Linebacker Alex Singleton has compiled 80 tackles that steady the middle. Even without Pat Surtain II, the secondary constrains explosives and forces patient throws that bend time of possession. Ja’Quan McMillian has already logged double-digit pass breakups. Talanoa Hufanga brings range and strike, and Brandon Jones returns with fresh legs. That unit also sits top-five by run-defense efficiency and allows roughly 90 rushing yards per game.

Maxx Crosby remains the Raiders’ singular terror. He holds five sacks, 13 tackles for loss, and six batted balls and has 15.5 career sacks against Denver. The history thunders, but context matters. Denver’s line blanked him in their last meeting of 2024 and now boasts elite pressure rates. Vegas owns 15 sacks as a team, with Crosby a third of that production, which narrows the havoc channel. If Bolles and help chips mute the star, the rest rarely tilts a game.

Raiders vs. Broncos pick, best bet

The counterpunch lives in Bowers and sudden strikes. His Week 9 rampage changed the math and Denver lacks Surtain’s shadow this time. Smith’s Week 9 line sings, and Jeanty’s 64-yard gear can flip field position. That’s the case for a live dog keeping this sticky. I push back with Denver’s red-zone choke rate at 34.8%, twenty-eight sacks by committee, and a run front ranked top-five by efficiency. Smith still carries eleven interceptions and twenty-one sacks across eight games. Las Vegas just traded a 352-yard possession receiver and now relies on Tre Tucker’s 427 yards to anchor a thin room. The margins still lean orange.

Denver stands 4–0 at home and rides nine straight in this building, while Las Vegas sits 1–3 on the road. The Broncos own a +59 point differential; the Raiders sit −88. Denver scores 25.9 per game and allows 18.9, while Las Vegas scores 14.7 and allows 25.7. That arithmetic lands near a two-score spread and a total shaded under.

Script sharpens the edge. Denver should lean early into duo and mid-zone to tug fronts sideways, then uncork quick game at 2.4 seconds. The aDOT at 3.4 keeps Crosby chasing ghosts while screens punish aggression. Harvey can stress linebackers horizontally, while Sutton and Franklin work in-breaking windows against safeties stretched by action. Altitude chips away at pursuit in the third quarter, and the Broncos’ nine-man distribution keeps legs fresh. On the other side, Denver should bracket Bowers with leverage and collision, using Hufanga over the top and bodies at the stem. That lets outside corners sit on verticals versus a receiver room reset midweek. If Jeanty meets a wall near ninety allowed rushing yards per game, Smith faces third-and-long into a rush that wins without blitz volume. Field position tilts, and the fourth quarter becomes a drain of snaps and hope.

I hear the objection about variance. Bowers can torch any coverage, and Smith just aired four touchdowns. Crosby haunts this rivalry with those 15.5 sacks. Still, Denver’s infrastructure beats volatility over sixty minutes. The home run threat shrinks inside the 20 where Denver allows touchdowns on only 34.8% of trips. The Broncos own the trenches on both sides and carry cleaner quarterback play, faster processing, and better protection.

I’ll lay the points. Denver −9.5 captures the structural gap, the altitude edge, and the red-zone gulf. The total likely creeps under 42.5 if Denver squeezes possessions, but the side owns clearer value given Las Vegas’s 14.7 scoring baseline.

Final score: Denver 27, Las Vegas 13.

Best bet: Broncos -9.5 (-110) vs. Las Vegas

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For a prop lean, Courtland Sutton at +150 to score fits Denver’s red-zone script and the rivalry’s leverage. He carries 4 touchdowns on 38 receptions and leads this room with 566 yards, a trusted boundary finisher. Bo Nix delivers at 2.4 seconds with a 3.4 aDOT, which isolates Sutton’s frames against hurried zones. Las Vegas allows 25.7 points per game, and Isaiah Pola-Mao, who leads with two interceptions, is questionable. Marvin Mims sits out, which nudges red-zone targets toward Sutton and RJ Harvey in condensed space. Denver owns nine straight home wins and sustains drives; altitude punishes coverage busts late. I expect one designed iso to hit paydirt through contact or leverage trickery inside the numbers.

Best prop lean: Courtland Sutton to score a touchdown (+150)

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