Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 10’s game between the New York Giants and Chicago Bears on Sunday.

We’re past the halfway point of the NFL regular season and tiers of contenders and rebuilders are largely sorted. While the New York Giants won’t make a play for the Super Bowl this year, the franchise continues to build around a growing star in quarterback Jaxson Dart. In Week 10, they face Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears, an NFC playoff hopeful with room to grow of their own.

Here’s a Giants vs. Bears prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Week 10.

Giants vs. Bears prediction, preview

Entering this season, the expectations for the Giants felt low as ever. The first couple weeks of the campaign played out as expected, but Jaxson Dart injected some competitiveness into this team despite one of the league’s toughest schedules and looks capable of serving as a franchise signal-caller. New York’s offense averages 21.9 points and 322.0 yards per contest, though the run game looks far less exciting with Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy Jr. leading the way following the injury to Cam Skattebo a couple weeks ago. Dart’s scrambling threat adds plenty to the passing attack, and while the weapons are far from elite, Theo Johnson is in the midst of a breakout alongside Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton. Defensively though, the woes continue as New York allows 27.7 points and 382.1 yards per contest with the second-worst front seven against the run. The Giants don’t make up for it with splash plays as they rank 19th in takeaways per game and 23rd in sack percentage, so for now, the offense has to show up.

The Bears enter with a 5-3 record after a shootout victory over the Bengals last week. The offense only improves on a weekly basis under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, who’s led his team to 26.9 points and 378.4 yards per contest — both top-six marks in the NFL. The rushing scheme here seems built for success as backup Kyle Monangai slotted in as the RB1 last week and posted an incredible game, and D’Andre Swift (Q, groin) could return after playing some of his best football prior to injury. While Caleb Williams’ play under center has been inconsistent at times, all of his many weapons survived the trade deadline. Rome Odunze should get more involved after a down week, Colston Loveland comes off a breakout game, DJ Moore remains a playmaker, and Luther Burden also comes back from a concussion-related absence. The defense, however, is one of the NFL’s worst with 28.4 points and 368.8 yards conceded per game. The Bears are 25th against both the run and the pass, and while they’re just 18th in sack percentage, they do sit tops in the league with 2.4 takeaways per contest.

Giants vs. Bears pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Bears as -4.5 home favorites with -218 odds on the Moneyline. The Giants are listed at +180 odds to win on the Moneyline with the game total set at 46.5 combined points.

Admittedly, seeing Chicago -4.5 felt a bit surprising given the gap in talent between these two teams. While yes, the Bears’ defense absolutely stinks right now, this week’s foe doesn’t have any real standout talent on offense aside from Dart. The weapons the Giants have can put up points on occasion, but they’re much less reliable than injured options like Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo. In comparison, Chicago’s group of weapons looks like an entire arsenal that can and will take advantage of a weak defense. The Giants struggle to stop the run in particular, but if they sell out to do so, the odds of getting torched on the back end increase exponentially.

The gap in skill-position talent will make a massive difference here. Sure, New York could possibly keep it competitive against a bad Bears defense; however, they’ll still give up those points and more on the other end. Watch for the home team to light up the scoreboard and dominate the time-of-possession battle. With that in mind, the Bears should cover comfortably (and I actually like alt lines here). If they create a turnover or two as they do so well, this quickly approaches blowout territory, too.

Best bet: CHI Bears -6.5 alt line (+112)