Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 10’s game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Baltimore Ravens.

U.S. Bank will rage under the lid as Baltimore arrives revived and Minnesota defends belief born in Detroit. Week 10 carries tiebreakers and reputations, tightening every sequence like knuckles on a frozen rail. Harbaugh’s group brings health, tempo, and a wider script crafted from early scars. O’Connell trusts structure and disguise, while Brian Flores readies mind games that test cadence and poise. The crowd will swallow breath on thirds, and sideline choices will echo long after the horn. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 10’s game between the Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Baltimore sits at +0.02 EPA per play with a 44% success rate, which turns dangerous when pockets stay clean. Minnesota allows −0.03 EPA per play and tightens windows with late rotation and coverage rules. Brian Flores heats about 39% of snaps, yet Lamar Jackson holds an 85.4 QBR versus blitz, which flips pressure into explosives. Minnesota allows touchdowns on 47% of red-zone trips, which nudges drives toward Justin Tucker and a field-goal script. Baltimore’s defense shows two faces: +0.09 EPA per play allowed across the season, yet only one passing touchdown surrendered across the last three. That blend signals bend between the twenties, then a late clamp when space compresses and mistakes cost possessions.

Derrick Henry changes Baltimore’s geometry. He averages 4.9 yards per carry with six touchdowns and just stacked 119 on 19 totes. Minnesota’s front sits at 122.3 rushing yards allowed per game and grades 20th by volume, which invites duo and gap to punish light boxes. When Minnesota squeezes interior lanes, under-center play-action opens seams and glance routes for Mark Andrews and resets leverage without risking hits on Jackson. Jeff Okudah’s absence stretches corner depth and pushes Andrew Booth Jr. or Mekhi Blackmon into leveraged snaps against motion, stacks, and layered releases. The dome track sharpens Baltimore’s motion timing and also accelerates Minnesota’s rush get-off, which heightens the premium on first-down efficiency and keeps the call sheet in phase.

Minnesota’s underdog case stays credible. The profile sits sticky: five covers in eight and every loss by four or fewer. Justin Jefferson has cleared 71.5 yards in six of seven and manipulates leverage through motion and condensed splits, which turns routine spacing into first downs. J.J. McCarthy has stayed under 209 passing yards in every start, yet Minnesota concentrates the tree to Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson to sustain chains. That concentration trims variance, drains clock, and tilts field position while limiting turnover exposure. Screens, draws, and simulated cadence can blunt pressure and slow edges on long downs. Hidden yards will matter in a dome, where clean punts, touchbacks, and return choices shift expected points snap by snap.

The counter still leans Baltimore. Marlon Humphrey is up, and Baltimore has tightened explosives while allowing one passing score across three games. Henry plus Jackson stress light boxes and simulated pressure without inviting free hits, because quick game and keepers tax rules rather than bravery. Indoors removes wind variance and preserves timing on motion-snap throws. Minnesota must force second-and-long, win disguise late, and hold the red zone to threes again and again. That path exists, but it asks for perfection over four quarters against an offense that layers stress at every level.

Ravens vs. Vikings pick, best bet

Jackson stands 24–3 against NFC opponents, which fits the unfamiliar-opponent problem his structure creates. Harbaugh’s fourth-down aggression banks hidden points over a season and pressures conservative math. Baltimore has exceeded its team total in 14 of the last 21, which reflects week-to-week scoring sturdiness rather than one-off spikes. Jackson has thrown two or more touchdowns in four of five starts, which pairs with Andrews’ leverage role and a sharpened red-zone menu.

I expect Baltimore to script with tempo and clarity. Henry’s downhill pace will force nickel personnel and pull safeties into run fits, which unlocks quick glance, seam, and sail into vacated grass. Andrews will test mid-field landmarks and option leverage rather than chase static spots. Z-motion and stacks will generate free access for boundary slants and crossers while punishing press. When Minnesota simulates pressure, Jackson will beat creepers with quick answers and scramble rules that turn covered into chunk. Minnesota will answer with drop-eight on longs, spin late on early downs, and accept Tucker if drives stall. That exchange concedes threes, not sevens, and protects cover equity, but it also seeds possession count to the side with greater creation.

Recent form sharpens the stance. Baltimore “smacked” Miami 41–16 when Jackson returned sharp and the offense uncorked four passing scores on 18 completions. Minnesota’s upset at Detroit showed resilience and plan fidelity, but the offense still lived under 209 passing and leaned on concentration rather than spread efficiency. Baltimore’s seasonal defensive EPA profile remains noisy, yet the recent passing-touchdown squeeze fits Humphrey’s return and a healthier back end. Add Henry’s new gravity and the Ravens’ play-action looks heavier than September numbers suggest. Indoors, the timing on jet, orbit, and split-flow play-action should hold fine edge discipline hostage.

The bet respects Minnesota’s stickiness while trusting Baltimore’s ceiling and sequencing. Red-zone math tilts toward field goals early, which keeps the total near market but doesn’t erase the side. If Minnesota owns plus-one turnovers and steals a fourth-down, the cover flips tense, yet Baltimore protects the ball and stacks first-down wins with motion and duo. If the Vikings spend resources to erase Andrews, boundary access for secondary targets expands, and Henry receives lighter boxes late. If Minnesota sits two-high and refuses explosives, Jackson will bank 8–10 easy completions that pull the structure apart by the fourth quarter.

Baltimore’s advanced baseline already edges Minnesota’s defense, and Jackson’s blitz answers erase Flores’ favorite lever. Henry’s attrition plus Andrews’ leverage should accumulate value as the game breathes. The dome environment preserves timing and raises the probability that Baltimore’s plan survives adjustment, which keeps the runway clear after halftime. Baltimore −4.5.

Final: Ravens 27, Vikings 20. Baltimore continues their great climb from the depths.

Best bet: Ravens -3.5 (-115) at Vikings

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For a prop lean, Derrick Henry 90+ rushing yards at +125 fits the shape. Minnesota allows 122.3 rushing yards per game and sits 20th by volume, a speed front that duo and gap punish. Henry averages 4.9 yards per carry and just rolled 119 on 19, which signals form and workload. Flores blitzes 39%, and Lamar’s threat loosens box counts, so sift action and split-flow keepers widen the C-gaps. The dome preserves footing and pace, while Minnesota’s 47% red-zone rate extends drive volume rather than killing carries. I expect 18–22 attempts with early-down success holding schedule, which turns four-yard dents into late chunk runs. I’m on 90+ at +125 because structure, environment, and volume converge on a century push.

Best prop lean: Derrick Henry 90+ total rushing yards (+125)

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