Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 10’s game between the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.

Lambeau’s lights will glint off cold air as Green Bay guards home pride and Philadelphia angles for seeding leverage. The board reads Packers 5–2–1 and Eagles 6–2, both stalking January home games with razor-thin margin. Last season’s sweep still echoes, and the rematch arrives with playoff gravity that tightens every decision. The NFC bye hangs within reach, and tiebreakers sharpen fourth-down math before the first whistle. The crowd will buzz on thirds, then hold its breath on reviews and spots. Nick Sirianni brings bye-week polish and a red-zone hammer that finishes around 85% of trips. Matt LaFleur counters with money-down efficiency near 49% and a defense that mutes explosives on schedule. Micah Parsons now wears green and gold and turns pass sets into tests of nerve. Jordan Mailata has allowed sixteen pressures and one sack, and that duel sets Jalen Hurts’s depth. A.J. Brown returns with fresh legs, and DeVonta Smith owns the zone answers Green Bay invites. Philadelphia retooled coverage during the layoff and arrives with fresher rush and cleaner rotations. Green Bay plays disciplined shells, caps chunk plays, and dares you to finish drives in the frost. One sneak at the line, one spot overturned on replay, and the seeding math tilts before midnight. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 10’s game between the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Jalen Hurts walks into a coverage profile that invites precision and punishes impatience. Green Bay plays about 22.5% man and close to 72% zone, and they sit top-ten in first-down plus touchdown rate allowed in both looks at 36.7% and 31.9%. The rule stays simple: finish drives or settle. A.J. Brown devours man with 14 catches for 243 yards on 57 routes and a 0.99 points-per-route clip, the exact antidote when the Packers tilt single. DeVonta Smith slices zone with 34 for 466 on 193 routes and a 0.48 points-per-route rhythm, the metronome Sirianni leans on when shells stay high. Dallas Goedert rests on a modest 29.5-yard bar in the notes, and that zone shell opens pivot windows when safeties widen. Sirianni’s teams sit 4-0 off the bye, so sequencing should sharpen and early-down calls should land. The cold trims deep-ball hit rates a hair, but Philadelphia’s 47.6% rush rate and RPO menu force downhill fits, then snap to slant-flat and glance. If the Eagles reach the fringe at tempo, the “tush push” still threatens the chains even with interior juggling, and the red-zone hammer swings.

Jordan Love, on the other sideline, faces an Eagles defense that reworked itself during the layoff and lives heavy zone near 68%, with man around 26%. Green Bay’s receivers split neatly by coverage. Romeo Doubs lives in the 0.59 range versus man and handles chain work when leverage softens. Christian Watson sits around 0.48 versus man, the vertical outlet when Philadelphia spins single and squeezes crossers. With Tucker Kraft out, Green Bay must replace middle-field security on third downs and in the red area, which nudges targets to flats and seams rather than pure sit routes. The Packers have allowed only 46 explosive plays through nine weeks, which tells you this defense lives on disciplined eyes and capped shots; that identity echoes on offense as LaFleur embraces method and possession, especially in freezing air.

The leverage still lives on money downs and inside the 20. Philadelphia’s red-zone touchdown rate sits around 85%, the best hammer in the league, and it travels because structure beats weather. Green Bay’s defense is excellent at choking off first downs and touchdowns early, but goal-to-go wins nights like this. If Philadelphia reaches five red-zone trips and cashes three, the math leans midnight green. If Green Bay holds two to field goals, the number stays in Lambeau’s grasp. Third down is the other crank. The Packers live at roughly 49% conversions, which is a real extender that steals snaps and oxygen. The Eagles will try to force third-and-seven instead of third-and-three by winning first-down structure with fresher rush and tighter fits after the bye. Dictate those distances and you dictate possession; dictate possession and you decide whose breath hangs longest in the cold.

Eagles vs. Packers pick, best bet

Green Bay’s case is still sturdy. Lambeau takes a piece of every visiting timing game, and the cold trims some deep-ball success. The Packers just took a 16–13 home sting from Carolina where they went one for five in the red zone, so Monday becomes a response night. Their defense has spent the year capping air damage, and that 46-explosive figure says they make you earn all of it. Love can distribute underneath and trust Reed and Doubs to work leverage over volume, not fireworks. If Zach Tom is active and the line holds up, Green Bay can lean on tempo, shifts, and backs in protection to push this into the fourth within a field goal.

The answer, though, keeps pulling toward finishers. Philadelphia converts red-area chances at an elite clip, and Hurts handles zone contours without panic. Brown overwhelms man whenever Green Bay sprinkles pressure, and Smith keeps finding the little daylight pockets when linebackers widen. The bye historically tightens the Eagles’ motion timing and RPO decisions. If the Eagles win the middle eight by four or more, the Packers’ third-down engine has to be almost perfect, and that rarely stretches across 60 minutes against a rested, better-heeled roster.

Weather sits around freezing with light wind, so the full playbook stays available; it just dials up the value of short yardage. The push play still exists, and Philadelphia is the best in football at turning inches into fresh sets. Two of those in high-leverage spots can be worth more than any explosive the Packers suppress.

The edge belongs to the team that turns drives into sevens. Philadelphia has the more reliable red-zone tool belt, the healthier perimeter, and the off-bye advantage. Green Bay’s explosive governor buys time, but the Eagles’ finish steals it back. Take the gamble on the better closer.

Final: Eagles 23, Packers 20.

Best bet: Eagles (+100) at Packers

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For a prop lean, DeVonta Smith 70+ receiving yards (+165) fits the coverage math and the moment. Green Bay lives in zone at roughly 72%, and Smith’s zone ledger sits at 34 for 466 on 193 routes—about 2.4 yards per route. That shell concedes timing throws, and Smith’s pacing through glance, dig, and pivot routes punishes widened safeties. Nick Sirianni’s off-bye sequencing will motion him into stacks and the slot, where Green Bay’s first-down+TD rate allowed in zone (31.9%) invites efficient churn. A.J. Brown’s gravity tugs the extra defender, so Smith inherits the clean mid-range. Micah Parsons tilts Jalen Hurts toward rhythm drops, which accelerates Smith’s volume. Lambeau’s chill trims pure bombs, but it rewards precise intermediate work. The path is clear: eight to nine targets, one 18–22 yard strike, and steady 10–12 yard wins. I’m on 70+ at +165 because the structure feeds him and the script sustains him.

Best prop lean: DeVonta Smith 70+ receiving yards (+165)

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