Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (3-7) and Washington Commanders (3-7) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 11 game at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid (9:30 a.m. eastern time, NFL Network, CBS Miami):
When the Dolphins run: Miami just had a 174-yard rushing performance from running back De’Von Achane in last Sunday’s impressive 30-13 win over the Buffalo Bills, and the Commanders just surrendered 226 yards on the ground to Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and the Detroit Lions run game. As Achane is now fourth in the NFL in rushing yards, this seems to be a good formula for the Dolphins that could electrify the international aficionados in Madrid.
Further hurting Washington’s No. 23-ranked run defense is that they will be without former Pro Bowl defensive tackle Daron Payne, who serves his one-game suspension after punching Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Commanders have Bobby Wagner roaming the middle of the defense, and the 10-time Pro Bowler is too prideful to have teams running all over his defense. But as he’s second in the NFL in tackles (99) to the Dolphins’ Jordyn Brooks (105), he needs help and may not get it from defensive tackles Eddie Goldman and Javon Kinlaw in front of him.
Achane, even at his size (5-9, 191 pounds), seems to handle a heavy workload just fine. We’ll see if he has another game of 20-plus touches, and if rookie Ollie Gordon II gets back into the mix another week removed from his ankle injury or if Jaylen Wright is second tailback up again. Right tackle Austin Jackson returned to practice this week. It’s unknown if he can be cleared from injured reserve in time to play Sunday, but he would provide a huge boost to Miami’s run-blocking if and when he does return, while left tackle Patrick Paul has been dominant in this facet. Even if tight end Julian Hill is back, Daniel Brunskill should continue getting snaps as a sixth offensive lineman, as the Dolphins found something with that. Edge: Dolphins
When the Commanders run: It may not feel this way, because Washington doesn’t have big names in the backfield, especially with Austin Ekeler out for the season, but the Commanders have the league’s No. 7 rushing offense. As opposed to the Dolphins, who do it nearly exclusively with Achane, it’s a combination of Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez. Croskey-Merritt leads the team with 470 rushing yards. A blow for them comes in that they’ll be without the scrambling threat of starting quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel also knows the threat veteran wide receiver Deebo Samuel can be as a runner, once utilizing him extensively carrying the football as his offensive coordinator with the San Francisco 49ers in 2022. Brooks and Miami’s young defensive line around Zach Sieler will duke it out against an offensive line featuring former Dolphins stalwart Laremy Tunsil at left tackle, right guard Sam Cosmi and left guard Chris Paul, the brother of Miami’s left tackle. Edge: Commanders
When the Dolphins pass: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa added to his league lead in interceptions (13) with another two against the Bills, but they weren’t nearly detrimental. Both came on deep shots on third-and-long and essentially fast-forwarded the game script to the punt that would follow had Miami merely thrown incomplete on third.
Tagovailoa’s top target, Jaylen Waddle, has 29 receptions for 485 yards and three touchdowns in the six games since Tyreek Hill went down with his season-ending knee injury. He caught another long score against Buffalo. He’ll face a banged-up Commanders secondary, which now has former Dolphins cornerback Noah Igbinoghene getting back into the action after cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos landed on IR in back-to-back weeks. Tagovailoa will have to be mindful of Mike Sainristil, who leads the team with three interceptions.
Washington’s pass defense is 31st in the league but can get after the quarterback some between edge rushers Von Miller, Dorance Armstrong and Jacob Martin, but Payne won’t be there to bring the interior pass rush. Paul should be reliable to hold down his side. If Jackson isn’t quite game-ready yet, it’ll again be Larry Borom at right tackle. Tagovailoa gets the ball out fast, regardless. Edge: Dolphins
When the Commanders pass: With Daniels out, Marcus Mariota is in line to make his fifth start this season. He’s 1-3 as a starter, completing 65.5 percent of passes for 852 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions. The 32-year-old who preceded Tagovailoa at Saint Louis High in Honolulu will have a tough task in front of him against a hot Dolphins defense that just held Bills quarterback Josh Allen scoreless through three quarters.
That’s especially true as he’s not expected to have the services of top target Terry McLaurin due to his ailing quadriceps. Beyond that, fellow wide receiver Treylon Burks has already been ruled out. The Dolphins will have to account for Samuel and veteran tight end Zach Ertz, given Miami’s struggles covering tight ends. The Miami secondary has cornerback Rasul Douglas’ status in doubt again, but last game, uncovered JuJu Brents as a potential lockdown corner on his side after being claimed off waivers from the Colts to start the year. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is coming off probably his best game this season. Rookie Dante Trader is coming into his own deep into the season, and Ifeatu Melifonwu, coming in for nickel packages, had an interception in the end zone vs. the Bills.
Pressuring Mariota from the blind side will be challenging for Bradley Chubb, with Tunsil protecting him at left tackle. As Chop Robinson is coming back from concussion protocol, he may start for the first time this season in the Dolphins’ second game without Jaelan Phillips. He’ll look to add to his one sack on the year, as Sieler finally got on the board himself from the interior last time out against Buffalo. Edge: Dolphins
Special teams: Dolphins punter Jake Bailey is tied for second in the league in net punting average with the Commanders’ Tress Way. With gunner Elijah Campbell back, that tandem with Bailey is working effectively in unison. Miami’s Malik Washington has returned a punt for a touchdown this season, and so has the Commanders’ Jaylin Lane.
Dolphins kicker Riley Patterson must recover from a bad missed extra point and impress the European audience that knows what it looks like when a player miskicks a ball. Washington kicker Matt Gay has missed four field goals but three are from beyond 50 yards. Edge: Even
Intangibles: The Commanders seem to have a broken-down roster at this stage of the season. Sure, the Dolphins have issues of their own, but it feels like this team is hitting its stride with two ultra-impressive wins its past three times out, especially going abroad coming off a beatdown of the Bills. Miami could have found a spark going into its final game before its bye week. Edge: Dolphins
PREDICTION: Dolphins 24, Commanders 16
Dolphins Deep Dive: Prediction time — will Miami defeat Commanders in Madrid? | VIDEO