For the first time in more than two years, Gillette Stadium will host a prime time game again. On Thursday night, the New England Patriots will welcome the New York Jets to their home arena — a chance to improve to 3-0 against the AFC East, to add an eighth straight win, and to give the new Rivalry alternate uniforms a proper introduction.

Obviously, none of that is a given considering that the Patriots will be playing on a short week and without several starters. Also, division games tend to follow their own rules.

That being said, anything other than a Patriots victory would be a major disappointment when looking at the two teams’ records — 8-2 versus 2-7 — as well as our head-to-head comparison.

Patriots pass offense vs. Jets pass defense: When the Jets moved on from Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner ahead of the NFL trade deadline last week, they also parted ways with their most disruptive pass rusher and their No. 1 cornerback. There is no way to sugarcoat it either: the drop-off from them to the next men on the depth chart is immense. Needless to say, so will be the unit’s challenge against a Patriots passing game that is ranked third in the NFL in EPA per dropback (0.277) and is led by current MVP frontrunner Drake Maye. While the unit will be without wide receiver Kayshon Boutte and tight end Austin Hooper, it has shown the ability to spread the ball around regardless of personnel. | Edge: Patriots

Patriots pass defense vs. Jets pass offense: If you’re looking for the Jets passing offense on that EPA list mentioned above, you have to scroll down all the way to No. 27 (-0.051). And that ranking seems generous when looking at the team’s passing output recently: starting quarterback Justin Fields has done a decent job limiting turnovers, but he has thrown for only 389 yards over his last four games combined while attempting only 72 throws over that span. It seems clear that the team is not fully trusting him, and that could prove problematic against a Patriots pass defense that has started to hit its stride recently. Add the fact that No. 1 wide receiver Garrett Wilson is out with a knee injury and that matchup is not looking rosy for a Jets that might have to rely on its running back and tight end groups to move the ball. | Edge: Patriots

Patriots rushing offense vs. Jets run defense: Speaking of hitting its stride, the Patriots run game has shown some clear improvement over the last few weeks. After ranking 32nd in the NFL in EPA per run over the month of September (-0.313), it ranked 25th in October (-0.177), and sixth since the calendar turned to November (0.128). The Jets’ run defense, meanwhile, has had its issues throughout the season and removing the aforementioned Quinnen Williams from the equation does also not make things any easier for the team. Even with RB1 Rhamondre Stevenson still out and Terrell Jennings questionable, New England is holding the edge in this matchup. | Edge: Patriots

Patriots run defense vs. Jets rushing offense: The Patriots run defense showed some weaknesses against the Buccaneers last Sunday, allowing its first 50-yard rusher of the season as well as surrendering 5.4 yards and 0.09 EPA per carry. Now going up against one of the most dynamic backs in the league, the test will not be any easier: Breece Hall, who is entering Thursday ranked 10th in the league with 664 rushing yards, has the potential to be a definitive problem. That being said, for as good as a player he is, his supporting cast has not always been able to put him in the best position. That is why New York’s run game is ranked only 22nd in the NFL in EPA (-0.072) and why, by a hair, we are still giving this battle to the home team. | Edge: Patriots

The Jets did not play a very good game against the Cleveland Browns in Week 10, and yet they were able to celebrate a 27-20 victory in the end. Why? Because their return game produced two touchdowns within a span of a minute in the opening quarter. First, it was Kene Nwangwu running a kickoff back 99 yards — he did the same from 97 yards out as a member of the Vikings against the Patriots in 2022 — followed by a 74-yard Isaiah Williams punt return TD. New England has had big returns this season as well, including a couple of scores, but the Jets’ return and coverage games as a whole have been more consistent. Also falling in that category are kicker Nick Folk, who has made all 19 of his field goals and all 12 of his extra points, as well as punter Austin McNamara. | Edge: Jets

Even though there have been some hiccups in all three phases, the coaching as a whole has been encouraging in Year 1 under Mike Vrabel. That is particularly true on offense, where coordinator Josh McDaniels has put forward a masterclass this season when it comes to maximizing your quarterback’s skillset and making up for some growing pains elsewhere. The Patriots will need more of the same on Sunday, especially with three starter-level contributors — RB Rhamondre Stevenson, WR Kayshon Boutte, TE Austin Hooper — out. So far, however, there has been no indication that McDaniels, Vrabel and the rest of the staff will not be up for the challenge. | Edge: Patriots

The Patriots are listed as 12.5-point favorites over the Jets as of Thursday morning, and it is not hard to see why. With special teams being the lone exception, they have the edge over their division rivals across the board. That naturally does not mean that they will run away with the contest, but that multiple things would have to go wrong for New England’s win streak to meet its end in front of a natural audience. It can happen, of course, because the old “any given Sunday” saying also applies on Thursdays, but the Jets emerging victoriously would be a massive upset.