It’s a huge Week 11 of NFL action, and the Yahoo Sports crew has broken down all four of the most high-stakes games in the race for playoff and conference supremacy.
Here’s the best of the week from “Football 301” crew of Nate Tice, Charles McDonald and Matt Harmon, the “Inside Coverage” crew of Andrew Siciliano, Charles Robinson, Jori Epstein and Frank Schwab, senior national columnist Jay Busbee and senior sports betting analyst Ben Fawkes.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo BillsWatch: Can Bills or Bucs be trusted?
When the Bills lost to the Patriots earlier this season … they got blown out by the Falcons the following week. The Bucs’ defense has been much better since Week 6 … just as their offense has taken a nosedive. What does this mean for this weekend and beyond?
Tampa Bay’s fatal flaw as contender might be injuries
Running back Bucky Irving and wide receiver Chris Godwin have both been ruled out this week with injuries, and that’s been a common theme with the Bucs’ whole roster this season. There’s enough talent here, especially on offense, to compete for a Super Bowl berth. But can they overcome a ridiculous rash of injuries? Sunday at Buffalo is a good place to make a statement in that regard.
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Watch: Are Bills putting too much on Josh Allen?
Josh Allen may be the reigning NFL MVP, and he may be awesome, but he might be feeling the weight of all the responsibility on his shoulders right now. As good as the Bills’ run game is, the defense isn’t good enough to play that kind of complementary style. Who’s creating separation in the passing game for Allen? Someone needs to start, and start soon, or else Buffalo won’t be able to play from behind at any point, which could spell trouble.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles RamsNate Tice mega preview
This is set to be one of the games of the year in the NFL. When the Rams have the ball in particular, it’s a juggernaut matchup. Will Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald dare play man coverage again, like he did against Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay — but not with Davante Adams — last season? Can the Rams cook in empty against a Seahawks defense that’s mid against that formation? As for when the Seahawks have the ball, keep your eye on how well the offensive line holds up against the Rams’ pass rush, and whether Sam Darnold can sort out all those Rams dime looks with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the newly acquired Rashid Shaheed and more weapons. This is gonna be a great one.
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Sam Darnold isn’t seeing ghosts, not anymore. A season after his remarkable career resurrection, Darnold has proven to even the most skeptical eyes that his landmark 2024 season with the Minnesota Vikings wasn’t a one-off fluke. Now comes the real challenge: Proving that the ugly way his 2024 ended was.
Watch: Could Seahawks’ explosives doom Rams?
Seattle leads the NFL with a 21.1% explosive pass play rate. That’s not only good — 14% is the barometer for a true explosive passing game — it’s the best mark for any team since at least 2002. That’s, well, that’s something the Rams will have to limit!
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Watch: Rams’ Quentin Lake talks ‘scary’ Seahawks
Veteran safety Quentin Lake sat down with Yahoo Sports to discuss this matchup, including how Sam Darnold has improved from last season, why the Seahawks’ offense has been rolling, and more.
Watch: Will Seahawks finish season ahead of Rams?
Our first playoff projections have the Seahawks as the NFC’s No. 2 seed, and thus the NFC West champion, while the Rams are the top wild-card team. It’s a tough call for who will win the division.
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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver BroncosChiefs’ streak of AFC West titles might be on the line at Denver
A loss on Sunday would drop the Chiefs to 5-5, and the Broncos would be 9-2 with just seven games left. That’s … a lot of ground to make up. Kansas City has won nine straight division titles, and still might be the AFC’s best bet to reach the Super Bowl. But that AFC West streak is already on the ropes.
Watch: Is Bo Nix good enough to lead Broncos deep into playoffs?
The Broncos are off to a great start at 8-2, but over time the dropback passing game might become a hindrance. Bo Nix’s footwork leaves a lot to be desired, and his limitations also hamstring head coach Sean Payton’s playbook at times. That could be a fatal flaw if the Broncos hope to contend for a Super Bowl title. Nix has a chance to make a big statement against the Chiefs on Sunday.
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Watch: Broncos cannot afford mistakes vs. Chiefs
Sacks and turnovers could have an outsized impact for the Broncos on offense, so they’ll need to limit both. Also, Denver can have success by forcing the Chiefs’ defense into base personnel — which they match 82% of the time on early downs. Finding those advantageous situations and not turning the ball over will work hand in hand.
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia EaglesWatch: Eagles need big plays to beat Lions
After a rough start to the season, the Lions’ defense under Kelvin Sheppard has adjusted to its personnel. Detroit is fourth in success rate, fifth in dropback success rate, and hovering around the top 10 in EPA per play allowed. The Eagles’ offense has struggled to move the ball consistently, and relies on chunk plays from the weapons they have. Will it be enough against the Lions?
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A.J. Brown says Eagles offense must improve, and Saquon agrees
Philadelphia’s star wide receiver has been very vocal this season about, among other things, the team’s offensive struggles. Here’s the thing: A big-name teammate agrees. “Whether it’s we score 10 or whether we score 40, A.J.’s not saying anything wrong,” Saquon Barkley said this week. “We always looking for room to improve.” They’ll need it against Detroit.
Watch: How much patience do Eagles have left for A.J. Brown?
A closer look at Brown’s season-long disgruntled comments indicates it’s not a contract thing, it’s a numbers thing. As long as Brown keeps putting it out there, he and the Eagles are going to keep being asked about it. How does the drama end? It might take Jalen Hurts or Nick Sirianni or another leader in the locker room sitting down with him and telling him enough is enough. Either the way, the Eagles are winning — and it might take some losing to push toward a resolution.
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Lions’ Dan Campbell defends tush push
Before the season, the Lions were one of 10 teams to vote against banning the tush push. Their head coach backed up that sentiment ahead of Detroit’s huge Week 11 game against the Eagles. “I’m a purist,” Campbell said. “You take something out of the game, then we’re taking the next thing out of the game and pretty soon we don’t have pads anymore. Then pretty soon you’re only playing 30 minutes.”
More NFL Week 11Frank Schwab picks against the spreadBen Fawkes’ betting trends to knowInjury tracker