Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Sunday’s game between the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans in Week 11.

In Week 11, the Houston Texans look to claw their way back to the .500 mark for the first time this season. With a soft matchup against the Tennessee Titans, these AFC South rivals are each positioned to continue their goals — the playoff hunt on one side and the quest for draft position on the other. However, anything can happen in the NFL though and with backup quarterback Davis Mills once again under center for Houston, could an upset be on the way?

Read on for a Texans vs. Titans prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 11 divisional clash.

Texans vs. Titans prediction, preview

Houston Texans

At 4-5, the Texans seek to keep their postseason hopes alive as they continue to salvage a very poor start to the campaign. Houston will work without C.J. Stroud (concussion) this week as Davis Mills starts once again, but the backup tallied 292 passing yards and three total touchdowns last week as he led the offense to a 26-point fourth-quarter comeback. It was an incredible effort that also saw Nico Collins post one of his best games of the year with seven catches for 136 yards, while rookie wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel got more involved. The defense continues to keep the Texans in competitive games with the fewest points (16.7) and yards (261.3) allowed per game in the NFL. The unit also forces 1.7 takeaways per outing, fourth-best. Offensively, Houston’s numbers have begun to tick upward to 19th in points (22.7) and 15th in yards (331.2) per contest, though the team’s still third-worst at securing points when in the red zone.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans have experienced a miserable 1-8 campaign that resulted in the firing of head coach Brian Callahan a couple of weeks ago. bright spots are extremely tough to come by as even No. 1 pick Cam Ward hasn’t shown as many flashes as expected. Tennessee ranks dead-last in both points (14.4) and yards (244.0) per game, as well as last in third-down conversion rate and second-worst in red-zone scoring percentage. With a poor offensive line, the run game doesn’t see lanes develop and Ward takes plenty of sacks as the team falls 31st in sack percentage. Calvin Ridley was back at practice this week, but he can only do so much in the midst of his own disappointing season. The Titans are only marginally more encouraging on defense, sitting 30th in opponent scoring (28.6) and 25th in opponent yardage (356.7) per outing. They’re particularly vulnerable to the run with an average of 141.3 rushing yards allowed.

Texans vs. Titans pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Texans come into this contest as -5.5 favorites on the road with -278 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Titans are listed at +225 to win outright with a game total of 37.5 points.

On one hand, Houston’s offense has been inconsistent at best this season and sees a backup quarterback at the helm. However, the competition Mills and his teammates face doesn’t exactly strike fear into opponents, and that’s putting it lightly. This Tennessee team is certainly trying its best, but it’s clear the unit remains hopelessly outmanned across the board with the talent on the roster and morale surely low given how the year’s played out to this point. The Texans’ defense should dominate this game in all phases as one of the league’s best and deepest pass rushes pressures this shoddy offensive line, while in the back end the secondary can clamp the few weapons they face with ease. Ward’s rough rookie campaign will continue, and it’s tough to see the NFL’s worst offense scoring much — if at all — on this group of players,

While Mills’ play remains an X-factor here and could range from replacement-level to star like last week, Woody Marks and Nick Chubb should grind the clock on the ground with some chunk gains against this soft run defense. As long as the Texans keep Mills in a game manager role rather than forcing him to play hero ball, they should easily cruise to a comfortable win on Sunday. Houston’s offense may struggle at times, but against this Titans unit, the red-zone woes may end up ironed out after all. We saw the attack come to life back in September with 28 points in a shutout win, so I’m taking Houston -5.5 without so much as a second thought and considering several bigger alt lines as well.

Best bet: HOU Texans -5.5 (-112)