Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 11’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Acrisure will feel claustrophobic before kickoff. Pittsburgh sits 5–4, clinging to a one-game AFC North lead despite dropping three of the last four. Cincinnati comes in 3–6, off a bye and a 47-point defensive faceplant against Chicago, staring at single-digit playoff odds. This rivalry still carries Burfict-era scars and Burrow–Roethlisberger echoes, every late shove and hit remembered in both locker rooms. They already played a 33–31 shootout in October, Joe Flacco’s late rally stealing it for Cincinnati. That duel of forty-year-old quarterbacks exposed both defenses. The board now hangs a spread around 5.5 and a total near 48.5. It dares you to decide whether structure or chaos wins the rematch. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 11’s game between the the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Cincinnati’s offense is still the loudest force in the matchup. The Bengals are scoring about 32.8 points per game while allowing 33.3, living in a world where every week feels like arena ball. They sit dead last in yards allowed, yet their net yards per play stay elite because the offense constantly rips explosives. Pittsburgh’s defense allows 23.6 points and 280.7 yards per game at 5.1 yards per snap, but it leans on disguise and timely havoc, not a smothering lid. That is dangerous against these receivers. Against man, Tee Higgins has 14 catches for 205 yards on 81 routes, a 29.6% target rate and 0.72 fantasy points per route, graded as a top-ten option in that split. Ja’Marr Chase murders zone: 59 catches, 690 yards, and a 31.0% target rate on 258 zone routes at 0.57 points per route. Pittsburgh’s coverage mix (about 23.4% man, nearly 70% zone) and middling man metrics give Higgins leverage on isolated downs while Chase owns the high-volume underneath and intermediate work.

Pittsburgh’s offense, ugly as it feels, walks into an environment built for a bounce. The Steelers pass on 58.4% of snaps even when leading by more than four, and they stay pass-leaning in neutral script. Cincinnati’s defense is an everything-leaks profile: 33.3 points allowed, 426.6 yards per game, and 6.4 yards per play, worst in the league. Opponents convert 49.1% on third down, and the Bengals give up first downs or touchdowns on 51.6% of man snaps and 39.2% of zone snaps. Red zone is equally loud: both offenses sit at 65.4% touchdown rate, but Pittsburgh’s defense allows 54.6% while Cincinnati’s defense bleeds at 69.8%. D.K. Metcalf’s production spikes against zone—27 catches for 441 yards on 213 zone routes at 0.42 points per route—and Cincinnati still lives mostly in zone despite a 35.1% man rate. Calvin Austin and Roman Wilson offer just enough man and zone juice to punish loose underneath windows.

And then there is Jaylen Warren. He owns 58.0% of Pittsburgh’s running-back carries on 113 attempts, with touch share climbing from 36.6% in Week eight to 50.0% in Week ten, and carries a 73.9 PFF offensive grade. The Bengals have allowed 29.8 half-PPR points per game to running backs, 5.1 more than the next-worst defense, with 390 receiving yards and 45 catches already, plus the second-most tight end receiving yards at 722 while Pittsburgh sits top two in three-tight-end usage. That is how sustained drives turn into full-blown eruptions.

Bengals vs. Steelers pick, best bet

Gut check on this one might feel, at first, like a runway toward the plus points and the under. Pittsburgh’s offense has been miserable in stretches. Over the last three games, they stayed under 300 yards, went seven-for-33 on third down, and managed only 10 points against the Chargers. Aaron Rodgers has hovered around the low-fifties in completion percentage in black and gold, and Tomlin has actually backed him publicly, emphasizing trust while begging for better situational ball. Cincinnati’s pass rush and turnover juice can tilt any game, and the Bengals’ rushing offense being dead last at 78.8 yards per game encourages a pass-heavy script that could stall against a disguised Flores-style plan from Teryl Austin. Steelers grabbing the points taps into turnover margin and home divisional dog gravity; the under leans on both red-zone units regressing and Pittsburgh refusing to play with its hair on fire. If this bogs into field goals and Tomlin punts on fourth-and-manageable, those tickets suddenly look live.

I still land on the total going north because the most stable features here pull the game into the fifties, not down toward forty. Cincinnati’s defense is bad in ways that travel: explosives allowed, third-down failures, red-zone leaks. That does not suddenly become “bend, don’t break” because the logo on the other sideline changed from the Bears to the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s pass rate when ahead, Warren’s expanding role against a defense that bleeds running-back and tight end receiving production, and a Bengals coverage profile that loses both against man and zone all lean toward sustained drives ending in touchdowns. On the other side, the Bengals understand the stakes. With playoff odds scraping the bottom, they are not flying to Pittsburgh to call draw–draw–punt. Higgins versus man, Chase versus zone, and deep red-zone roles for Chase, Higgins, Andrei Iosivas, and Chase Brown all scream aggressiveness whenever they cross midfield.

The script I see should keep both sides honest but never truly clamp down. Pittsburgh should lean into three-receiver and three-tight-end sets, using motion to pry mismatches for Metcalf and underneath outlets for Warren, living in that sweet spot where third-and-five stays convertible because Cincinnati simply cannot cover everything. The Bengals, forced by necessity, should respond with tempo and early-down throwing, letting Higgins hammer man looks on the boundary while Chase hunts crossers and digs against zone. Red-zone trips should skew toward touchdowns rather than chip shots, and one or two short fields from turnovers or failed fourth downs only add oxygen. I do not trust either defense enough to attach my money to a side or to a sweat-heavy under.

Over 48.5 is the play, with a projected 30–24 Steelers win that keeps the division pressure on Baltimore and pushes Cincinnati’s season right to the brink.

Best bet: Steelers vs. Bengals o48.5 (-110)

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For a prop lean, Jaylen Warren 3+ receptions at -110 is the cleanest way to ride this script. His carry share sits at 58% on 113 attempts, but the passing role is where the matchup breaks. His touch share climbed from 36.6% in Week eight to 50.0% in Week ten, with the staff openly saying he will touch the ball even more. Cincinnati has already allowed 45 receptions and 390 receiving yards to running backs and nearly 30 half-PPR points per game to the position, worst in the league by more than five. Pittsburgh should stay pass-leaning, using three-tight-end looks to stress coverage rules and freeing Warren on swings, angles, and checkdowns when the Bengals’ man coverage carries verticals. In a game that should live in the high 40s or low 50s, short targets to Warren are the easiest on-ramp for sustained Steelers drives, and that usage makes three or more catches feel like the safer way to monetize his role than chasing an alt ladder.

Best prop lean: Jaylen Warren 3+ receptions (-110)

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