Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 11’s game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Los Angeles Chargers.
This one’s more like a team audit more than a celebration. Jacksonville sits 5–4, fresh off blowing a nineteen–point fourth-quarter lead to Houston and staring at a season that alternates signature wins with maddening collapses. Los Angeles arrives 7–3 on a three-game win streak, 6–1 against AFC opponents, already talking seeding while the Jaguars are still fighting just to stay in the bracket. The last month hardened both identities: the Chargers as a high-volume, pass-first machine with quietly surging defense; the Jaguars as a volatile roster that can punch up but rarely play clean for four quarters. This feels less like a random interconference game and more like a referendum on which team actually belongs in the AFC’s top tier. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 11’s game between the the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
The Chargers bring a clean, repeatable shape. Offensively they sit in that top-six EPA neighborhood at +0.52, with a +0.58 net rating that lands seventh in the league and about 368.5 yards per game. Justin Herbert is already at 2,610 passing yards and 19 touchdowns, and Los Angeles converts 47.55% of third downs while allowing only 34.17% on defense, the league’s only top-five, top-five split on money downs. They leaned all the way into that identity last week: roughly a 70% neutral pass rate, low time to throw, heavy motion, and screens to protect a line missing both tackles. That approach lands directly on Jacksonville’s soft tissue. Liam Coen’s defense lives in zone on about 80.5% of snaps, with just 12.3% man, and has been tagged repeatedly for explosive plays even while holding up fine against the run. Thomas being out lets the Chargers sit in those shells more comfortably, because the outside speed downgrades and the primary threats become Jakobi Meyers and a cluster of solid, mid-depth targets rather than a true lid-lifter.
Jacksonville’s offense still has teeth, just more blunt without Thomas. Trevor Lawrence sits at 1,998 passing yards and ten passing touchdowns and leads the team with four rushing scores, which underscores how often he has to finish drives himself. With Thomas expected out, the target tree compresses toward Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington, both carrying zone target rates between roughly 18% and 21% but none matching Thomas’s 324 yards on 241 zone routes or his ability to tilt safety depth. Last week’s neutral pass rate at 36% without the top three pass catchers already hinted at Liam Coen’s instinct here: lean Travis Etienne, lean shorter concepts, try to win a field-position game. Etienne owns 60.0% of Jaguars running-back carries on 135 attempts, with the run game still choppy behind a line that just got gashed by a Texans offense posting +0.25 EPA per rush. The Chargers defense is technically light in the box and has allowed 4.9 yards per carry to backs, but it has played as a top-ten EPA unit overall at –0.057 and has been the best defense in football over the last three games at –0.333 EPA per play, with Tuli Tuipulotu already at eight sacks and eleven tackles for loss. That is not an automatic eruption spot for a short-handed passing game and an inconsistent offensive line..
Chargers vs. Jaguars pick, best bet
The Jags do have real counterpunches. Their overall profile still grades as top-tenish by net efficiency. The red-zone defense is legitimate: only 82 red-zone plays faced, with a league-best 22.4% pass success rate allowed and a middle-tier mark versus the run. That aligns nicely with a Chargers offense that loves to throw in tight and could be forced into more runs or shorter throws near the goal line. Lawrence’s legs and Etienne’s burst give them answers when plays break down, and the zone-beating core of Meyers and Washington can live on crossers and option routes if Herbert’s offense hits early turbulence behind that injured line. The post-meltdown psychology also matters. First game after the worst blown lead in franchise history often comes with max focus and hyper-aggression, especially at home, and the Jags know a win swings their playoff odds from “eh” to legitimately live.
For me, the Thomas news breaks the tie and tilts it back toward Los Angeles. Without him, Jacksonville loses its cleanest way to punish the Chargers if they squeeze windows underneath. You can crowd Meyers, trust your zone rules, and rally to tackle without living in fear of a true lid-lifter. On the other side, nothing about the Chargers’ core advantages changes. Herbert still pilots a top-tier passing game. Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey still carry strong target shares and points-per-route numbers against zone. The third-down gap still favors Los Angeles on both sides. And that defensive surge the last three weeks—plus Tuipulotu’s emergence up front—fits perfectly against a Jaguars line that just got bullied by a Texans front which posted a ridiculous rushing EPA line.
The script I expect has the Chargers dictating shape while the Jags chase angles. Los Angeles should lean into 11 personnel, motioning Allen into stacks and inside leverage against zone, using McConkey as a timing engine and Johnston to clear out space, with quick game blunting Jacksonville’s pass rush. Jacksonville should answer with Etienne into light boxes and a spread passing tree built around Meyers and Washington, trying to string together ten-play drives rather than landing haymakers. Red-zone trips should be competitive because of the Jags’ pass defense there, but the Chargers’ third-down edge, healthier pass game, and Thomas’s absence on the other sideline tilt the sum of those possessions toward Los Angeles by more than one kick.
I’m off the total and onto the side. Chargers –3 is the bet, with a projected 24–17 Los Angeles win that keeps their seeding push intact and nudges Jacksonville another step toward that talented-but-not-quite mediocrity once more.
Best bet: Chargers -3 (-105) at Jaguars
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For a prop lean, Justin Herbert 36+ pass attempts at +100 is the diversification play I want. He’s averaging 36.8 attempts this season, has cleared 36 in six of ten starts, and already sits at 2,610 yards with 19 touchdowns. The Chargers just pushed roughly a 70% neutral pass rate, and Jacksonville lives in zone about 80.5% of snaps with shaky explosive-pass numbers, which tilts the plan back to Herbert’s arm. With Los Angeles converting 47.55% on third down and a three-point spread projecting four full quarters of work, thirty-six or more attempts is a clean, numbers-backed path.
Best prop lean: Justin Herbert 36+ pass attempts (+100)
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