Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has finally looked human in his last two games after a blazing hot start. Jones is still leading one of the most efficient offenses this century, evidenced by the Colts averaging a league-high 3.17 points per drive, which is the fourth-highest mark through a team’s first 10 games in the last 25 years. However, one fatal flaw Jones has worked so hard to correct has returned: turnovers. Jones was one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks in the league in his six seasons with the New York Giants, throwing 47 interceptions and losing 26 fumbles in 70 games.
In his first eight games as a Colt, however, Jones threw only three interceptions and fumbled twice (running back Jonathan Taylor dropped a toss, which was credited as Jones’ fumble, though it wasn’t his fault). But in his last two starts, Jones has been intercepted four times and fumbled six times, losing three. That’s seven turnovers in the last eight quarters, though it’s also worth noting that Jones has been under siege. He’s been sacked 12 times in his last two starts compared to nine through the first eight games.
“I think it’s everything working together with that stuff,” Jones said of his team’s offensive miscues. “Obviously, a lot on me, and I’ve gotta do a good job of protecting the ball in those situations — in the pocket, wherever on the field. I’ve gotta protect the ball and make sure that’s always paramount. I think we all work to help each other. I’ve gotta get the ball out on time and get the ball to the open guy. But we’re confident. We’ve done a really good job of that all season, so we’ll continue to do that.”
To be clear, the Colts have expressed full confidence in Jones and for good reason: He’s led them to an 8-2 start with a chance to stay in the race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed as they prepare to face the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. But considering Jones’ turnover history, and the incessant chatter around Indy’s new franchise QB, I phoned a friend, The Athletic’s in-house film expert Ted Nguyen, to ask this question: Is Jones turning back into the QB the Giants kicked to the curb (for the record, I don’t believe that) or are his recent mishaps just a blip on the radar for the resurgent Colts?
Nguyen looked at all of Jones’ turnovers. Here’s what he saw on the tape and how it can be fixed.
INTReasonRoutePressured
7
Tried to fit ball in tight downfield window
Deep Crosser
No
6
Didn’t see underneath defender
Whip
No
5
Tipped pass at LOS
Bubble
Yes
4
2 receivers near each other
Curl
Yes
3
Tried to throw over defender
Medium Crosser
No
2
Tried to throw over defender
Deep Crosser
No
1
Tried to hit honey hole
Fade
No
Film review
On three of Jones’ interceptions, he tried to force a ball into windows that he simply does not have the arm strength to do. On his first interception of the season against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 4, he tried to fit the ball into the Cover 2 honey hole, which wasn’t necessarily a bad decision, but he didn’t have enough velocity on the ball. His second pick against the Rams and seventh interception against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10 were similar. Jones tried to throw to deep crossers, but the ball floated and a defender was able to undercut it.
Week 4, 12:58 remaining in the third quarter, first-and-10
On this play, the Colts had two intersecting crossing routes on a play-action concept.
Two Rams defensive backs clamped down on the intermediate crosser, leaving former Colts receiver AD Mitchell with a void to run toward the sideline.
Jones made the right read and threw to Mitchell. Free safety Kam Curl was behind Mitchell when the ball was in the air.
However, the ball floated, giving Curl time to get underneath the pass for the interception.
Week 10, 0:48 remaining in the second quarter, third-and-11
Against the Falcons, the Colts had three receivers run breaking routes toward the left sideline. Deep ball specialist Alec Pierce ran the deepest route.
The Falcons’ defenders jumped the two shorter routes, so Pierce had room to run behind them as he was crossing through the free safety’s face.
The window was tight and it’s especially ill-advised to test two-time All-Pro safety Jessie Bates, who played for Colts DC Lou Anarumo in Cincinnati. Bates’ 26 interceptions are tied for the second-most in the NFL since he was drafted in 2018, but Jones tried to drive the ball anyway. The pass was severely underthrown, and Bates easily intercepted it.
DANNY DIMES DEEP BALL TO ALEC PIERCE.
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The Falcons did a good job of shutting down the intermediate middle of the field where Jones has been making a living, and they challenged him to beat them deep — and in some cases, he did. Jones connected with Pierce on a 37-yard touchdown in the first quarter of the Colts’ win over the Falcons. The QB made the right read as the Falcons safety drove up on an underneath route, and Jones responded by taking a shot to Pierce, who leads the league in yards per reception at 20.9. The pass may have been a little underthrown, but Pierce took full advantage with a spectacular catch in double coverage. Jones has praised Pierce’s ability to win 50/50 balls all year, and Colts wide receivers coach Reggie Wayne commended Jones for simply giving Pierce a chance.
“A lot of guys get opportunities on deep balls, but the thing with Alec is, just don’t overthrow him,” Wayne said. “If you give him an opportunity, he’ll high-point the ball and he’ll be able to bring it in nine times out of 10.”
The Colts ultimately outlasted the Falcons in overtime, with Jones making huge plays with his arm and his legs in the fourth quarter and the extra frame, but how Atlanta shut down the middle of the field against him could be a blueprint for other opponents like the Chiefs on Sunday. This year, Jones is 9-of-29 passing for 375 yards and two touchdowns against three picks on deep throws (passes of at least 20 air yards), per Next Gen Stats. His 31.0 completion percentage on deep throws ranks 23rd in the NFL. However, Jones is 48-of-76 passing on intermediate throws (passes between 10 and 19 air yards) for five touchdowns against two interceptions. He ranks fifth in the league with a 63.2 completion percentage on intermediate throws. So, in layman’s terms, defensive coordinators know where Jones’ comfort zone is, and moving forward, other teams may commit more resources to taking it away.
To counter that, Jones must understand the limitations of his arm, which is still plenty capable, and stop trying to force the deep throws. Additionally, he needs to be more aware in the pocket and keep two hands on the ball to avoid fumbling. Jones’ eight fumbles this year are tied for the league high (again, one was more on Taylor than him), and his 58 career fumbles are tied for the second-most in the NFL since he entered the league in 2019.
FumbleReasonLocation
8
Stripped while scrambling (one hand on ball)
Outside
7
Stripped while throwing
6
Stripped while holding ball with one hand
5
Stripped looking downfield
4
Stripped while scrambling (two hands on ball)
A-gap
3
Stripped while looking downfield
2
RB dropped toss
1
Stripped while look downfield
Final thought
To be fair to Jones, the solution to the Colts’ recent turnover issues isn’t all on him. He’s done his part and then some this year with a 69.9 completion percentage and 101.6 passer rating that rank first and fourth, respectively, in Colts single-season history. When he has had time, he’s delivered. Now, it’s up to his offensive line to rebound with him because they’re not blameless, either. Through the first eight games of the season, Jones’ average time to throw was 2.77 seconds, yet he was only sacked nine times. Over the last two games, Jones’ average time to throw has been even quicker at 2.66 seconds, but he’s been sacked 12 times. That’s not a recipe for success.
“I think every play has a different story to it,” coach Shane Steichen said when asked about the offensive line. “I could have done better on a lot of those things from a protection standpoint (and) some of the matchups we had. Other times, (Jones) scrambles out of the pocket, and if you run out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage, it counts as a sack. So, all those things play into it. But yeah, we want to get some stuff cleaned up. It starts with myself, and we look forward to that challenge.”
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will surely have some wrinkles dialed up in an effort to slow down Jones and Indianapolis’ high-powered offense, which is still averaging a league-high 32.1 points per game. But with an extra week to prepare as they return from the bye, the Colts’ offense has as good a chance as any to get back to its maximum operating level against a foe that needs no introduction. The three-time defending AFC champion Chiefs are ranked No. 4 in the league in scoring defense, allowing 18.1 points per game, and they’re trying to avoid their first three-game regular-season losing streak of the Patrick Mahomes era.
A statement will be made on Sunday, either by the hungry guests or the heralded hosts.
“It’s the NFL, they’re all big games,” Jones said of the matchup. “But this is an opponent we respect a lot and a team that’s had a lot of success. So, I’m excited, and we’ve got to play well on our side of the ball.”