Week 12 includes an NFC South showdown when the New Orleans Saints host their most bitter rival, the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints are coming off their bye and are at 2-8, beating the Carolina Panthers in Week 10 for the first victory in the career of rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. Atlanta comes in at 3-7 and riding a five-game losing streak after losing at home to the Panthers last week.

New Orleans has struggled offensively this season. They rank just 26th in total yardage and 30th in points scored, with their biggest issues being able to run the ball and a dead last ranking in red zone efficiency. Atlanta ranks around the middle of the pack defensively, but has had some major struggles against the run. It’s here that we focus our analysis of this matchup between these fierce rivals.

Falcons Run Defense138.5 yards per game (28th)4.7 per carry (26th)8 touchdowns (9th)

Atlanta held the Panthers to under 70 yards on the ground last week. However, their previous seven opponents had gained at least 110 yards rushing against them, with five running for at least 135 yards. That includes the Colts, who rolled over the Falcons for 323 yards on the ground and 244 alone from running back Jonathan Taylor. The Falcons have allowed two 100-yard rushers and three more to gain at least 60 yards rushing.

Atlanta employs an undersized defensive front with edge rushers that are built to rush the quarterback over defending the run. The Falcons inside linebackers are also beat up. Divine Deablo has been on injured reserve, while Troy Andersen remains on the PUP list. Former Saint Kaden Elliss leads the Falcons in total stops (65) and tackles for loss (8), but Atlanta has had a difficult time standing up at the point of attack and closing off running lanes on the back end.

Saints Running Game92.8 yards per game (28th)3.7 per carry (30th)3 touchdowns (31st)

New Orleans rushed for 122 yards two weeks ago against the Panthers, breaking a five-game streak where they were held to under 90 yards on the ground. Those 122 yards was their second highest output of the year, as this offense dwells at the bottom of the rankings in all significant rushing statistics.

Alvin Kamara leads the team in rushing, but has only 460 yards and a 3.6 per carry average. Kamara rushed for 83 yards against the Panthers and had 99 yards rushing in Week 2, but has been held to under 70 on the ground in seven of his other eight outings. With Kendre Miller (knee) out for the year, Taysom Hill is the next logical backfield threat. It hasn’t happened. Coach Kellen Moore has yet to figure out a way to utilize Hill’s versatility. He has only 22 attempts for 52 yards, averaging just 2.4 per carry. Rookie Devin Neal has had some flashes, but has 10 rushes for 43 yards.

Most of the Saints rushing attempts have come inside, where the team has struggled on the offensive line. Guard Cesar Ruiz is the only remaining opening day starter on the inside, and he’s the weakest link on the line. Center Luke Fortner and guard Dillon Radunz are replacements for Erik McCoy (injured) and Trevor Penning (traded) but are still jelling in the middle. On the outside, rookie left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. and second-year right tackle Taliese Fuaga are a terrific tandem. However, the Saints simply don’t run behind either often enough and have difficulty establishing cutback lanes when they do.

The fact that a team with Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill on the roster is tied for the fewest rushing scores in the NFL tells you how inept this offense has usually been. To reduce the pressure on rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, the Saints need to have success on the ground. This starts by establishing Kamara early on and with success up front, but also in Kellen Moore’s game plans and play-calling.