Griffin Wong analyzes New Orleans Saints running backs Devin Neal and Audric Estimé’s fantasy potential if Alvin Kamara (ankle) sits Week 12 vs. the Falcons.
This season was expected to be a slow and painful rebuilding process for the New Orleans Saints, who finished 5-12 last season, and so far, that’s exactly what it’s been. The Saints are just 2-8, even after beating the Carolina Panthers before their Week 11 bye, and they made a selling move at the trade deadline, dealing WR2 Rashid Shaheed to the Seattle Seahawks for a pair of mid-round draft picks. New Orleans’ incumbent star, running back Alvin Kamara, hasn’t been immune from the struggles, posting his fewest yards per carry and yards per reception of his nine-year career. He also injured his ankle in practice last month and has been listed as questionable for the third straight game entering Sunday’s clash against the Atlanta Falcons.
Kamara will most likely play, given that he’s had the same designation and ultimately suited up in each of the past two games, but with the Saints on the verge of elimination from playoff contention, there’s no reason for Kellen Moore to risk injury to arguably his best offensive player, especially given his age and the mediocre track record of dual-threat running backs past their 30th birthday. If he does end up sitting, the Saints are very thin at running back, given that Kamara’s backup Kendre Miller tore his ACL in the Week 7 loss to the Chicago Bears. New Orleans’ only other active running backs are sixth-round rookie Devin Neal and Audric Estimé, who hasn’t made a carry yet this season but was pretty effective in a limited role for the Denver Broncos last season.
Despite only being a sixth-round pick, the Saints have invested much more in Neal than Estimé, who they picked up from the waiver wire after he was released from the Philadelphia Eagles’ practice squad. That’s not to say that Estimé is awful — he had a 53-yard performance last season against a very strong Kansas City Chiefs run defense in Week 10 — but Neal will get the majority of opportunities in the offense if Kamara sits. The 22-year-old has earned only 10 carries this season, but he’s turned them into a solid 43 yards and had four carries for 22 yards and another three catches for nine yards in Week 10, so he’s trending in the right direction. He has somewhat more versatility than Estimé, who’s never been much of a receiving threat.
Neal could be a value play in the absence of Kamara against a very weak rushing defense in Atlanta’s. This season, the Falcons have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs while giving up the fifth-most rushing yards per game on the sixth-most yards per attempt. While they’ve been better at keeping running backs out of the end zone, Neal had a knack for paydirt in college, finding the end zone 17 teams in both his junior and senior seasons. Plus, Atlanta’s secondary is pretty good, allowing the eighth-fewest yards per attempt and posting the seventh-highest interception rate, so handing the ball off to Neal could be more appealing to Tyler Shough than throwing it.