The Texans are currently at 6-5, have only six games remaining and are right now only half of a game out of the 7th seed in the AFC (Jaguars, 6-5). They also sit a full game out of the 5th and/or 6th seed, behind the Chargers (7-4) and Bills (7-4).

They have won their last three straight, and will be receiving quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive back Jalen Pitre both back from injuries to boot (concussions). The first test for those returning comes at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts next Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium, where the home team stands as one of the league’s best at 8-2.

After them come three more AFC playoff contenders in the Chiefs (5-5), Chargers (7-4) and Colts (again). In the midst of those contests, Houston has the very beatable Cardinals (3-7) and Raiders (2-8) wedged right in the middle. Not to look too far ahead of things, but the AFC playoff race seems to have the makings of a dogfight the rest of the way through.

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Any team who is not a division winner might have to win 10+ games at least to have the best shot of getting into the dance. Looking for their third playoff appearance of the “Ryans and Stroud” era, the Texans would have to win four more times at minimum to meet that threshold.

Best case scenario, the Cardinals and Raiders could be penciled in as “more likely than not” victories for the Texans, bringing their regular season win total to projected floor of eight wins. Then, that just leaves another two wins between the Colts twice, Chiefs and Chargers.

The Chiefs and Chargers have looked more vulnerable recently than they have all season, which would make them prime candidates for an upset or two in the coming weeks. Kansas City has shown flashes of their normal dominance, but their five losses through the first 10 weeks of the regular season is the most in that timespan of the Patrick Mahomes era.

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The Chargers have been plagued with season-ending injuries and performance inconsistency all season long. Offensive linemen Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, and running back Najee Harris represent three of the largest blows to the playoff aspiration of Los Angeles, but the team has still managed a 7-4 record heading into today’s slate of games.

Even still, a compromised offensive line against the likes of defensive ends Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter spell certain disaster for quarterback Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense.

The more feasible of the two would be the Chargers because of the aforementioned problems, thus bringing the Texans to nine theoretical wins. They definitely could also beat the Chiefs and render the next section of this article moot, but credit will be given where it’s due to three-time Super Bowl winners (The Bills loss still makes beating the Chiefs very doable).

That just leaves the Colts as potentially the final boss of Houston’s playoff hopes in 2025. The Colts would rollout the best offense in the NFL (396.9 yards/game, 32.1 points/game), as well as a revamped defense with the addition of former Jets corner Ahmed “Sauce” Gardner.

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This matchup smells of the “win or go home” game of 2023-2024, where Stroud and co. stamped a prolific season by defeating the Colts 23-19, wrapping up a playoff spot and securing the first AFC South win of Demeco Ryans’ tenure.

Since then, Houston has swept Indy (2-0 in 2024) and has gone on to win the AFC South in back to back years (’23-’24).

That gives this final divisional series for the Texans much more juice, as the Colts have perhaps remembered all of what has transpired between the two franchises since 2023 and would most certainly love to play spoiler to any chance of a Texans playoff three-peat.

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If the Texans can find a way to split the series at least, that would give them 10 wins on the season and a great chance to lock up a Wildcard spot at worst. After that, it’s a brand new season and the chips will fall as they may.

In short, wins against the Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers and Colts would provide Houston with a strong chance to not only make the playoffs, but to also yet again be the team to erase an 0-3 record deficit and still make the postseason (also did it in 2018).

Do you think the Texans find a way to make the AFC playoffs? Could they even make a run at the division crown if things break their way? Let us know in the comment section below or on the official Texans Roundtable X account (@Texans_RTB)!