Blake Krass makes his straight-up picks for every Week 13 NFL game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
These are my picks to win every Week 13 NFL game straight-up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 13 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Chargers over Raiders
The Chargers need a win, and this is the perfect spot to get one. Los Angeles has been better at home this season, while the Raiders are on a miserable run of form, no matter where they play. Despite having Maxx Crosby, the Raiders shouldn’t be able to exploit the Chargers’ biggest weakness, the offensive line. The Raiders are one of the worst-coached teams in the NFL and their offensive issues will only get worse with Ashton Jeanty potentially out for this game.
Ravens over Bengals
The Ravens have won five straight games and look like Super Bowl contenders again. Joe Burrow is back for the Bengals, but this is a tough first game for him. It could take Burrow a couple of weeks to get back into the flow of things after such a long time away. Even if Burrow plays well, this Bengals defense is horrific. The Ravens should be able to just feed Derrick Henry and move the ball with ease.
Rams over Panthers
The Rams are the best team in football at the moment. The Panthers’ offense has been struggling the last few weeks and the Rams should be able to shut them down. The only concern for the Rams is the cross-country travel, but Sean McVay has been one of the NFL’s best coaches when it comes to traveling across multiple time zones. He knows how to structure the week to ensure his team is ready, despite the long travel. The Rams should keep rolling here against Bryce Young and Carolina.
Eagles over Bears
The Eagles are in a good spot to bounce back here. The Philadelphia pass defense has been broken all season, but this could be the chance for it to finally figure it out. This Bears defense can be attacked at every angle. They rank 22nd in defensive EPA/play and 25th in defensive success rate. Saquon Barkley should be able to run it efficiently, and if the Bears sell out to stop him, the Eagles’ wide receivers should win in single coverage. Chicago has been running well against bad teams, but this is a step up in class compared to its recent competition. The Eagles should get a much-needed win in this spot.
Jaguars over Titans
The Jaguars are an inconsistent team. The defense has major holes on the back end, and Trevor Lawrence continues to be unreliable. However, the Titans have been the worst team in the NFL this season. Tennessee’s lone win needed several miracles for the Titans to come out on top. The Jaguars are untrustworthy, so this is lower down my rankings despite the large spread. That being said, it’s hard to pick the Titans to win any game until they show some level of consistency on either side of the ball.
Medium Confidence
Seahawks over Vikings
The Seahawks are one of the biggest favorites of the week in the NFL. However, they are not even in my “High Confidence” tier against the Vikings. There are several red flags that could point toward a Vikings upset. Firstly, Brian Flores is an elite defensive coach, and he got to practice against Sam Darnold every day last season. He knows how to bait Darnold into mistakes, something he will still do despite how good he has been this season. The Vikings also made a quarterback change to Max Brosmer. He has never played an NFL game before, meaning Seattle has no tape on him. Seattle is the better team and should win, but it is lower down on my confidence list because of these variables.
Colts over Texans
The Colts are coming off a tough overtime loss against the Chiefs. With just a one-game lead over the Jaguars in the division, the Colts need to keep winning. C.J. Stroud is returning for the Texans, and there could be some rust after missing several weeks. The Colts can also take away Nico Collins by having Sauce Gardner shadow him all game. That hampers the Texans’ offense, which heavily relies on Collins. The Texans’ defense is always tough to beat, but the Colts should be able to run it some, doing enough to win at home.
Patriots over Giants
The Patriots have played an incredibly easy schedule, but they keep knocking the pins down. This is another easy matchup, and they should find a way to win. The Giants have struggled with giving up explosive passes, which is what Drake Maye does best. The Giants have been playing well, despite losing, with Jameis Winston at quarterback. This is a bit lower on my confidence list in case Jaxson Dart returns and sparks the team, but New England should find a way to win.
Dolphins over Saints
The Saints’ offense still has major issues. Tyler Shough cannot exploit the issues on the back end of the Dolphins’ defense like other teams have done this season. The Saints rank 24th in defensive EPA/dropback, so Tua Tagovailoa should be able to move it through the air in this game. Both defenses are flawed, but the Miami offense is much more capable.
Broncos over Commanders
There is a chance Jayden Daniels returns on Sunday, although it’s a long shot. Even that unlikely chance makes me slightly less confident in Denver here. The Broncos also lose their great home-field advantage, where they are always harder to beat, with this game being in Washington. The Broncos have cut it close in plenty of wins this season, making them harder to trust. However, the Denver defense should dominate if Daniels is sidelined another week.
49ers over Browns
The Browns’ defense is always tough to beat at home. The 49ers have plenty of weapons at their disposal, but Cleveland is allowing just 15.4 PPG at home this season. This should be a lower-scoring game in some potentially bad weather in Cleveland. However, I will back the 49ers due to the lack of trust in Shedeur Sanders. Sanders got a nice win in his first start, but he still did not play very well. Robert Saleh knows how to scheme things up defensively to force mistakes out of young quarterbacks. Due to the big advantage at quarterback, I’ll take the 49ers to win a tough one.
Coin-Flip Games
Chiefs over Cowboys
The Chiefs and Cowboys are set to play what could be the most-watched game in NFL history on Thanksgiving. The Chiefs kept their season alive with a comeback overtime win over the Colts. The Cowboys are also coming off an amazing comeback win over the Eagles. Both teams are riding high and should be up for this big game. This game could come down to the wire, but ultimately, the Chiefs’ tougher defense should get the win. Both of these offenses can score, but Steve Spagnuolo’s group should get the key stops needed in the fourth quarter.
Bills over Steelers
The Bills have not looked sharp the past few weeks. They are coming off extended rest and are facing either a hobbled Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph. For those reasons, Josh Allen should find a way to get his team the win. However, it’s hard to be confident in the Bills, especially on the road. The Steelers’ crowd should be rowdy for this game and no coach in NFL history is better as an underdog than Mike Tomlin. There is a massive quarterback advantage for the Bills, so I’ll back them, but with minimal confidence.
Buccaneers over Cardinals
The Buccaneers could be without Baker Mayfield this week. That would set up a battle between two of the league’s most experienced backups, Teddy Bridgewater and Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has been solid in relief of Kyler Murray, but his production has declined over the past couple of weeks. The Tampa Bay defense can take away the run and force this offense to be one-dimensional. Meanwhile, Bucky Irving is expected back for Tampa Bay. A real run game would make life much easier on Bridgewater. In a coin-flip game between backup quarterbacks, I’ll take the team with a better running game at home.
Jets over Falcons
The Jets are one of the two teams I’m picking to pull off an upset this week. The Falcons got a win over the Saints last week, but that is largely due to the inept offensive play from New Orleans. Kirk Cousins has been poor since taking over this season, and now he will have to play in cold outdoor conditions in New Jersey. The Jets can get after the quarterback, and Cousins has been awful under pressure. Tyrod Taylor is an upgrade at quarterback over Justin Fields and should be able to move it through the air for the Jets.
Packers over Lions
The other upset I’m picking is in the first game of the week, with the Packers over the Lions on Thanksgiving. These are two of the top teams in the NFC, but the Packers are my pick to sweep the Lions in the regular-season series. The Lions’ offense has been bailed out by Jahmyr Gibbs breaking amazing plays the last few weeks. When these teams faced off in Week 1, the Packers completely shut down Gibbs. If they game plan to stop Gibbs again, the Lions’ offense should struggle. Meanwhile, the Packers’ offense ranks top five in the NFL in EPA/play and success rate. In a great divisional battle, I’ll back the Packers to edge it out.