NFL player props for Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson on Thanksgiving Week 13

This year’s excellent Thanksgiving NFL schedule ends on a high note as the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Baltimore Ravens to renew their heated rivalry in Week 13. Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow will return from injury to lead the Bengals, setting up a classic showdown with counterpart Lamar Jackson. But which of the two stars present better value for NFL player props betting?

Here, we break down the top NFL player props for both Burrow and Jackson on Thanksgiving, with odds courtesy of DraftKings and projections and recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NFL game 10,000 times. For a full game forecast of Ravens vs. Bengals and more NFL player prop recommendations, visit SportsLine.

Passing yards props

Joe Burrow: 253.5 (Over -112, Under -112)
Lamar Jackson: 234.5 (Over -111, Under -113)

Top pick: Joe Burrow Under 254.5 passing yards (4 stars out of 5)

The model is fondest of Burrow’s Under, as it projects him to throw for 213.7 yards. The former LSU star hit four Unders in his last five outings before going down, and he’ll also be operating without No. 2 wide receiver Tee Higgins, who will miss the game after suffering a concussion in Week 12. This may be a more deliberately paced Burrow offense than we’re used to. 

Passing attempts props

Joe Burrow: 36.5 (Over -123, Under -104)
Lamar Jackson: 27.5 (Over -117, Under -109)

Top pick: Joe Burrow Under 36.5 passing attempts (4 stars)

In keeping with the first Burrow prop, the model doesn’t expect a massive aerial attack from Cincinnati on Thanksgiving. Burrow is projected to throw 31 times. He’s gone Under in three of his last five games, and again, he’ll be without Higgins. Running back Chase Brown could be in for some more work.

Passing touchdowns props

Joe Burrow: 1.5 (Over -146, Under +115)
Lamar Jackson: 1.5 (Over -238, Under +181)

Top pick: Lamar Jackson Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (3.5 stars)

The model’s lean isn’t overly strong here, as it projects 1.1 passing touchdowns for Jackson. But given the heavy plus money price here, there’s plenty of value to be had by taking Jackson’s Under. It also helps that Baltimore can score plenty with the ball on the ground with Jackson’s legs and Derrick Henry.