The No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (10-1, 6-1 SEC) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-6, 1-6) meet in the Egg Bowl Friday at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Ole Miss comes off a bye riding a 4-game win streak, capped by a 34-24 victory over the Florida Gators that resulted in a push as a 10-point home favorite and the Over (53.5) cashing. RB Kewan Lacy was unstoppable, piling up 224 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 31 carries. QB Trinidad Chambliss threw for 301 yards with a TD and an INT to keep the Rebels rolling.
Mississippi State welcomed a much-needed bye week after dropping 6 of its last 7. The Bulldogs’ last outing was a 49-27 setback as 7-point underdogs at the Missouri Tigers with the Over (50) hitting. QB Blake Shapen finished with 199 passing yards with no touchdowns and 2 picks, but he did punch in 2 rushing TDs. Now, the Bulldogs face a must-win finale if they want to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2022.
While Ole Miss is trying to lock in a College Football Playoff bid, the other big story is the future of coach Lane Kiffin. Rumors have him being pursued by LSU and Florida, while Ole Miss is trying to keep him. He’s reportedly expected to announce a decision in a much-anticipated news conference after this game.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
Ole Miss at Mississippi State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:52 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Ole Miss -285 (bet $285 to win $100) | Mississippi State +230 (bet $100 to win $230)Against the spread (ATS): Ole Miss -7 (-110) | Mississippi State +7 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 62.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Ole Miss at Mississippi State picks and predictionsPrediction
Ole Miss 37, Mississippi State 24
PASS.
The Egg Bowl is an underrated rivalry in college football and should be a good game. Ole Miss (-285) will handle business against its instate nemesis, but the price is too high, which is why I’m taking my wager to the spread.
BET OLE MISS -7 (-110).
This rivalry rarely follows a clean script, but this matchup still tilts heavily toward Ole Miss when you break it down. The Rebels enter with far more to play for, still chasing postseason positioning, while the Bulldogs are trying to snap out of a stretch that’s seen them lose 6 of their last 7. There’s a big talent gap, especially when these teams line up on offense.
Ole Miss has the ability to move the ball consistently against a Mississippi State defense that has struggled to hold up against quality SEC opponents. The Bulldogs defense is 15th in the 16-team SEC in both total yards per game allowed (393.2) and points allowed per game (28.4). That’s a tough formula against a Rebels offense that can stretch the field and control tempo when needed.
Even with the chaos this rivalry can bring, Ole Miss has been more composed, more balanced and far more reliable in critical spots.
On the other side, Mississippi State’s inconsistency has been glaring. Costly mistakes, stalled drives and defensive breakdowns have been a recurring theme. While home field and rivalry emotion matter, it’s hard to ignore the trends and momentum pointing in one direction.
When it comes down to it, I’m trusting the more complete team here. Give me OLE MISS -7 (-110) to cover.
BET OVER 61.5 (-105).
Everything about this Egg Bowl points toward a slower, grind-it-out script. The Under has hit in 9 of the last 10 meetings, and the formula still fits. Ole Miss can move the ball, but it prefers long, clock-draining drives, while the Mississippi State offense continues to sputter with Shapen forcing throws and turning it over. With the Rebels defense controlling tempo and limiting big plays, I’m backing UNDER 61.5 (-105) to cash again here.
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