College football conference championship scenarios: Who can clinch and how

With two days of football remaining until conference championship week, everything is still at stake.

Across the nine FBS conferences that will play a conference championship, only two teams — James Madison of the Sun Belt and Western Michigan of the MAC — have clinched places in next weekend’s games. In the Power 4, all eight conference championship slots are up for grabs.

The scenarios for some, like the SEC and Big Ten, are relatively simple. As for the ACC … well, time to study up on tiebreakers.

Here are all of the possible conference title game matchups — and what needs to happen Friday and Saturday to get there.

SEC

SEC championship race

TeamConference recordOverall

7-0

11-0

7-1

10-1

6-1

10-1

6-1

10-1

Games with title-race implications: Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Friday, noon ET), Texas A&M at Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET), Alabama at Auburn (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Possible matchups

Alabama-Texas A&M

Alabama wins + Texas A&M wins

Alabama-Georgia

Alabama wins + Texas A&M loses

Georgia-Texas A&M

Texas A&M wins + Alabama loses OR
Texas A&M loses + Alabama loses + Ole Miss loses

Georgia-Ole Miss

Texas A&M loses + Alabama loses + Ole Miss win
Big Ten

Big Ten championship race

TeamConference recordOverall

8-0

11-0

8-0

11-0

7-1

10-1

7-1

9-2

Games with title-race implications: Indiana at Purdue (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET), Ohio State at Michigan (Saturday, noon ET), Oregon at Washington (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Possible matchups

Indiana-Ohio State

Indiana wins + Ohio State wins OR
Ohio State wins + Indiana loses + Oregon wins OR
Ohio State wins + Indiana loses + Oregon loses

Indiana-Oregon

Indiana wins + Michigan wins/Ohio State loses + Oregon wins

Indiana-Michigan

Indiana wins + Michigan wins/Ohio State loses + Oregon loses

Ohio State-Michigan

Indiana loses + Michigan wins/Ohio State loses + Oregon loses

Oregon-Michigan

Indiana loses + Michigan wins/Ohio State loses + Oregon wins
Big 12

Big 12 championship race

TeamConference recordOverall

7-1

10-1

7-1

10-1

6-2

9-2

6-2

8-3

Games with title-race implications: Utah at Kansas (Friday, noon ET), Arizona at Arizona State (Friday, 9 p.m. ET), Texas Tech at West Virginia (Saturday, noon ET), UCF at BYU (Saturday, 1 p.m. ET)

Possible matchups

BYU-Texas Tech

BYU wins + Texas Tech wins OR
BYU loses + Texas Tech loses + Arizona State loses

BYU-Arizona State

BYU wins + Arizona State wins + Texas Tech loses + Utah loses OR
BYU loses + Texas Tech loses + Arizona State win + Utah win

BYU-Utah

BYU wins + Utah wins + Arizona State wins + Texas Tech loses

Texas Tech-Arizona State

Texas Tech wins + Arizona State wins + BYU loses + Utah loses
ACC

ACC championship race

TeamConference recordOverall

6-1

9-2

6-1

8-3

6-1

8-3

6-2

9-2

5-2

9-2

5-2

6-5

Games with title-race implications: Miami at Pitt (Saturday, noon ET), Boston College at Syracuse (Saturday, 3 p.m. ET), Wake Forest at Duke (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET), Virginia Tech at Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET), UNC at NC State (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET), SMU at Cal (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

Possible matchups

Virginia-SMU

Virginia wins + SMU wins, OR
Virginia wins + SMU loses + Miami wins/Pitt loses + Wake Forest wins + UNC wins

Virginia-Pitt

Virginia wins + Pitt wins/Miami loses + SMU loses

SMU-Pitt

SMU wins + Pitt wins/Miami loses + Virginia loses

Virginia-Duke

Virginia wins + Duke wins + SMU loses + Miami wins/Pitt loses, OR
Virginia loses + Duke wins + SMU loses + Miami wins/Pitt loses + UNC wins

Virginia-Miami

Virginia wins + Miami wins/Pitt loses + SMU loses + Duke loses + NC State wins + Syracuse wins, OR
Virginia loses + Miami wins/Pitt loses + SMU loses + Duke loses + UNC wins + Syracuse wins

SMU-Duke

SMU wins + Duke wins + Virginia loses + Miami wins/Pitt loses + UNC wins

SMU-Miami

SMU wins + Miami wins/Pitt loses + Virginia loses + Duke loses

Pitt-Georgia Tech

Pitt wins/Miami loses + Virginia loses + SMU loses

Duke-Miami

Duke wins + Miami wins/Pitt loses + Virginia loses + SMU loses + NC State wins

Miami-Georgia Tech

Miami wins/Pitt loses + Virginia loses + SMU loses + Duke loses + NC State wins

Virginia-Georgia Tech, Miami or SMU*

Virginia wins + Miami wins/Pitt loses + SMU loses + Duke loses + NC State wins + Boston College wins, OR
Virginia loses + Miami wins/Pitt loses + SMU loses + Duke loses + UNC wins + Boston College wins

SMU-Duke or Miami*

SMU wins + Duke wins + Miami wins/Pitt loses + Virginia loses + NC State wins

*In the last two scenarios, the second spot in the ACC championship would be decided by SportSource rating score, the sixth tiebreaker criterion.

American

American championship race

TeamConference recordOverall

7-1

9-2

6-1

10-1

6-1

9-2

5-2

8-3

5-2

7-4

Games with title-race implications: Navy 28, Memphis 17 (Thursday), Temple at North Texas (Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET), East Carolina at Florida Atlantic (Saturday, noon ET), Rice at USF (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET), Charlotte at Tulane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Possible matchups

Tulane-North Texas

Tulane wins + North Texas wins

North Texas-Navy

North Texas wins + Tulane loses

Tulane-Navy

Tulane wins + North Texas loses

Navy-Tulane, North Texas, USF or East Carolina*

Tulane loses + North Texas loses

*In the event Tulane and Navy lose, there would be anywhere from two to four teams tied for second place. In that scenario, the American will use a combination of computer formulas: Bill Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, KPI. The order of that ranking entering this week’s games: North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, East Carolina.

Conference USA

Games with title-race implications: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET), Kennesaw State at Liberty (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Possible matchups

Western Kentucky-Kennesaw State

Western Kentucky wins/Jacksonville State loses + Kennesaw State wins

Jacksonville State-Kennesaw State

Jacksonville State wins/Western Kentucky loses

Western Kentucky-Jacksonville State

Western Kentucky wins/Jacksonville State loses + Kennesaw State loses
MAC

MAC championship race

TeamConference recordOverall

7-1

8-4

5-2

7-4

5-2

7-4

5-2

7-4

5-2

6-5

Games with title-race implications: Western Michigan 31, Eastern Michigan 21 (Tuesday), Ohio at Buffalo (Friday, noon ET), Toledo at Central Michigan (Saturday, noon ET), Ball State at Miami (Ohio) (Saturday, noon ET)

Possible matchups

Western Michigan vs. Toledo

Toledo wins + Ohio loses, OR
Toledo wins + Ohio wins + Miami (Ohio) loses*

*In scenario 2, the team with the higher rating (Toledo or Ohio) from SportSource Analytics would advance. Toledo’s rating was better entering the weekend.

Western Michigan vs. Miami (Ohio)

Miami (Ohio) wins + Toledo wins + Ohio wins, OR
Miami (Ohio) wins + Toledo loses

Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan

Central Michigan wins + Miami (Ohio) loses + Ohio loses

Western Michigan vs. Ohio

Ohio wins + Miami (Ohio) loses + Toledo loses*

*In scenario 1, the team with the higher rating (Ohio or Central Michigan) from SportSource Analytics would advance. Ohio’s rating was better entering the weekend.

Mountain West

MWC championship race

TeamConference recordOverall

6-1

9-2

5-2

9-2

5-2

8-3

5-2

7-4

4-3

7-4

4-3

7-4

4-3

6-5

Games with title-race implications: San Diego State at New Mexico (Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET), Boise State at Utah State (Friday, 4 p.m. ET), UNLV at Nevada (Saturday, 9 p.m. ET), Fresno State at San Jose State (Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET), Wyoming at Hawaii (Saturday, 11 p.m. ET)

Possible matchups

San Diego State vs. Boise State

San Diego State wins/New Mexico loses + Boise State wins

San Diego State vs. UNLV

San Diego State wins/New Mexico loses + UNLV wins + Boise State loses

New Mexico vs. San Diego State

New Mexico wins/San Diego State loses + Boise State loses + UNLV loses

New Mexico vs. San Diego State or UNLV

New Mexico wins/San Diego State loses + Boise State loses + UNLV wins

*In all other scenarios, a composite average of selected predictive and results-based computer metrics after all games conclude would be used to break ties. San Diego State would clinch the No. 1 spot with a win. Read more here.

Sun Belt

Sun Belt West Division race

TeamConference recordOverall

5-2

7-4

5-2

7-4

James Madison has already clinched the East with a 7-0 conference record.

Games with title-race implications: Troy at Southern Miss (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)

James Madison vs. Southern Miss

Southern Miss defeats Troy

James Madison vs. Troy

Troy defeats Southern Miss