It’s hard to imagine a quarterback prospect who had more preseason hype than Arch Manning did coming into the 2025 campaign.

He struggled to live up to the expectations early on, though, with pedestrian showings against multiple unranked opponents, including an upset loss to Florida. Manning’s mechanics were a mess, his decision-making was head-scratching at best, and he had all the hallmarks of an talented but inexperienced passer who needed to come back for another season instead of making the early leap to the NFL.

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The second half of the season has been a different story, as Manning has thrown 12 touchdown passes to just two interceptions over the Aggies’ last five games. He’s added three scores on the ground over that stretch, too. He threw for 328 yards and three touchdowns (no interceptions) in an upset win over No. 9 Vanderbilt, then 389 yards and four touchdowns (no interceptions) in a blowout win over Arkansas.

Still, Manning had struggled against the toughest defenses he faced throughout the year (Ohio State, Georgia), and had one more opportunity to prove himself against an elite opponent Saturday night against No. 3 Texas A&M.

Things didn’t start too rosy for Manning and the Longhorns against the Aggies, but they finished strong, pulling away for a 27-17 upset victory.

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Manning’s overall stat line through the air won’t impress anyone (14-for-29, 179 yards, one touchdown), but in the second half, Manning got the job done and avoided any critical mistakes:

Manning also added 53 yards on the ground, including the 35-yard touchdown run that put Texas up by 10 points for good.

This win has the Longhorns clinging to their slim hopes of sneaking into the College Football Playoff, but has Manning’s performance down the stretch been enough to launch him back into the conversation as one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft class?

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The 2026 quarterback class has been overhauled throughout the season. While other preseason darlings have also fallen off the map (Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, Penn State‘s Drew Allar, LSU‘s Garrett Nussmeier), rising prospects have emerged to replace them at the top of the board (Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Alabama’s Ty Simpson, Oregon’s Dante Moore).

There’s no denying Manning has looked much better throughout the season, and that makes sense, given his need for more and more reps. Sure, there’s value in sitting behind Quinn Ewers in Steve Sarkisian’s system for two years, but he’s still a first-year starter, and there’s simply no substitute for live game reps against elite competition.

There’s never been any doubt that Manning owns the physical traits to be a franchise quarterback at the next level. But early in the season, his mechanical degradation made it look like he had no business playing in the NFL next year instead of coming back for another year of polish against college defenses. Things have definitely improved as the season has moved along, but that doesn’t change the fact that Manning’s long-term development would still benefit from a return to school next season.

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Will any of that keep an NFL team from spending the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft on Manning, should he opt to enter? Of course not. The physical tools and upside are still undeniable, and the league has proven many times over that teams will always be willing to bank on upside at the top of the draft, especially with quarterbacks.

It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Manning’s name is the first one called come next April, and the team that takes him will be quick to point to his improvement from the beginning of the 2025 season to the end. But that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t be better prepared to deliver on the enormous expectations at the next level if he returns to get another year of starting experience under his belt.

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Nov 29, 2025, where it first appeared in the NFL section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.