According to the gospel of Bill Parcells, the Patriots are the best team in the AFC.
As of Sunday morning, they owned the conference’s best record at 10-2.
If you are what your record says you are, that says it all about the Patriots.
But naturally, in an NFL season when the league’s hierarchy has shifted on an almost weekly basis and no truly great teams have emerged, it’s not that simple.
The Pats’ last win — an injury-riddled escape from a bad Bengals team — shook their Super Bowl odds. Starting left tackle Will Campbell was lost to a knee injury that landed him on injured reserve. Left guard Jared Wilson went down with a high ankle sprain, the same injury that will keep defensive tackle Milton Williams out for three more games at a minimum.
Before the Pats lost two of their five starting offensive lineman and their most consistent pass rusher, the trenches were already cause for concern. Since the start of October, Drake Maye has been under pressure on 43.1% of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the league, per Sports Info. Solutions. Defensively, their pass rush has been league average all season by several metrics, including pressure rate and Pro Football Focus grades, and consistently below average by sack percentage.
Not to mention, the Patriots are a fourth-down stop away from having played one-score games all of November, including three versus bad teams. Still, who would you definitively pick over them right now in the AFC?
Let’s rule out the Chiefs and Ravens, who both fell back to .500 with tough losses on Thanksgiving. The Steelers (6-5), Jaguars (7-4), Texans (6-5) and Chargers (7-4) are also out thanks to appreciably worse records and deep problems with their respective offenses.
That leaves only the Broncos (9-2) and Colts (8-3), plus the Bills (7-4) who, despite their own flaws, cannot be counted out so long as the league MVP stays under center. Multiple advanced metrics, such as Expected Points Added (EPA) and the opponent-and-situation-adjusted DVOA, favor Denver and/or Indianapolis over the Patriots.
But are they right? Let’s explore.
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) looks to pass the ball during the second quarter of an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, Nov. 2, 2025, in Houston. (AP Photo/Maria Lysaker)
The case for the Broncos
Record: 9-2
Offense: 15th by DVOA (17th passing, 23rd rushing)
Defense: 5th by DVOA (3rd passing, 3rd rushing)
The best, most balanced unit among AFC playoff teams resides in Denver.
Packed with impact players at every level, the Broncos defense is allowing the third-fewest points of any team in the league.Star corner Patrick Surtain II, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, is the best player at his position. His coverage has been complemented by one of the best safety tandems in the league with Talanoa Hufanga and Brandon Jones. Edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper have a combined 17 sacks this year, while defensive lineman Zach Allen and inside linebacker Dre Greenlaw are forces in the middle.
Denver averages 4.5 sacks per game, while they allow 3.6 yards per carry; both tops in the NFL. So, good luck running and protecting your quarterback against them.
The Broncos’ offense is another story. Bo Nix has paired a below-average 61.2% completion percentage with pedestrian totals of 18 touchdowns, eight interceptions and 2,421 yards. But when asked to deliver in the clutch, Nix has. He’s authored five fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives this season, a major reason why Denver has won eight straight with a mediocre set of weapons.
Any belief in the Broncos as the AFC’s top team depends on how sustainable Nix’s play feels and how much confidence Sean Payton engenders as the head coach. Their defense is elite, but the rest of this team would typically keep them out of the No. 1 seed conversation in most years.
The case for the Colts
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (AP Foto/Martin Meissner)
Record: 8-3
Offense: 2nd by DVOA (7th passing, 1st rushing)
Defense: 11th by DVOA (12th passing, 19th rushing)
By now, the big question has been answered. Are the Colts for real?
Well, in this AFC field, it’s a low bar. And by that bar, there’s no question.
Indy is an offensive powerhouse with the most dominant resume in the AFC. They have five wins by 14-plus points, most in the conference, beating up the league’s dregs and top teams like Denver and the Chargers. Their only bad performance came in a one-score loss to the Steelers; an aberration of a game defined by a season-high number of turnovers.
Sound familiar?
Even if Daniel Jones continues to come down to earth, the Colts have the league’s best insurance policy: their run game. They rank No. 1 in yards per carry (5.2), EPA and DVOA. Jonathan Taylor has ripped off the most explosive runs in the league, and forced roughly five tackles per game. Out wide, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce and rookie tight end Tyler Warren all have 600-plus receiving yards and pose real problems in the red zone.
Play the Colts, and there is inevitably a mismatch somewhere. And that mismatch is a threat to score.
At the trade deadline, the Colts reinforced their defense by acquiring star cornerback Sauce Gardner in a deal that gave them a second All-Pro defender (defensive lineman DeForest Buckner) and telegraphed their self-belief as legit contenders. Gardner now helps Indianapolis survive without generating takeaways, a critical, but often unreliable, source of defensive success from week to week. The Colts can also task him with eliminating opposing No. 1 receivers, and rely on the postseason experience of first-year defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo — who once knocked out Mahomes and the Chiefs in an AFC title game — to survive in tight games.
But questions about Jones are all fair, and opposing offenses can exploit Indy with a death-by-a-thousand-cuts game plan. The Colts’ defensive success rates allowed against the run and pass are both below average.
The case for the Bills
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second quarter of an NFL AFC division playoff football game, Sunday, Jan. 21, 2024, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)
Record: 7-4
Offense: 5th by DVOA (11th passing, 2nd rushing)
Defense: 22nd by DVOA (17th passing, 31st rushing)
The beginning and end of this case is Josh Allen.
Allen is so good the Bills can all but guarantee themselves a trip to the divisional round of the playoffs, which they’ve reached each of the last five seasons. Buffalo’s chief problem — pun intended — has been overcoming Kansas City which, barring a miracle, should miss the postseason. No Patrick Mahomes then means Allen will be the most proven playoff quarterback in the NFL come January, and possibly its best.
What about his nine interceptions? A function of some bad decisions and bad luck, but more of the latter than you’d think. Allen actually ranks top-5 — neighboring Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert — in turnover-worthy play percentage this year, per Pro Football Focus; a metric that strips away plays like interceptions where the receiver tips an accurate pass to a defender.
By that measure, Allen is protecting the ball better than he ever has. His 69.7% completion percentage and 8.3 yards per attempt are also tracking to finish as career highs. And he’s virtually automatic as a runner at the goal line and in short-yardage.
Behind Allen, James Cook has already clinched a 1,000-yard season and is powering the second-best rushing attack in football. Thanks to Allen, Cook and a powerful offensive line, Buffalo can control the line of scrimmage and the clock. There is no offense in the AFC that deserves more trust and should strike more fear in big games.
Defensively, the Bills have problems. They can’t stop the run. Their linebackers and safety struggle in coverage. But if Allen stakes them an early lead, it may not matter because their greatest defensive strength is their pass rush, which ranks third by pressure rate, seventh by PFF grades and eighth in sack percentage.
For better or worse, it’s all on No. 17.
The case for the Patriots
Record: 10-2
Offense: 5th by DVOA (11th passing, 2nd rushing)
Defense: 27th by DVOA (27th passing, 17th rushing)
Before anyone comes after DVOA as being anti-Patriot, know that its creator, Aaron Schatz, a founding father of football analytics, is a Patriots fan.
OK, setting that aside, some good news: not all advanced metrics view the Patriots as an average team masquerading as a contender like DVOA, which weighs their historically easy schedule and bevy of one-score wins. In fact, EPA, perhaps the most commonly cited metric in the analytics discourse, views the Pats as an elite team relative to their competition.
The Patriots rank 7th in offensive EPA and sixth defensively, while accounting for their most obvious flaws (30th in rush EPA). That leaves them and the Colts as the only AFC teams that rank in the top 10 for both offense and defense by EPA. Even if the defensive ranking feels inflated — and it does —there’s a simple tiebreaker with Indy: coach and quarterback.
Drake Maye is playing better than every other quarterback in the AFC, no questions asked. Mike Vrabel is also a maestro of situational football and clock management, a critical edge in the postseason. Just ask the last Brady-era Pats.
Defensively, there’s a level the Patriots have yet to reach. That will depend largely on Christian Gonzalez, who has played well this season but not to his shutdown potential. If Gonzalez finds his old form around the time Williams returns from IR, watch out.
Tight coverage against No. 1 receivers could allow the Pats to blitz more often and help offset their waning pass rush. And their run defense, while sagging lately, is still far from a liability. With an elite quarterback, a shutdown corner, sturdy run defense and great coaching, what more could you ask for in the playoffs? And who else in the AFC can boast the same?
Answers: not much, and no one.
Quote of the Week
“My family. I think that having them here this week is going to be good, going to be nice. And then I would say the opportunity to coach this team. I think the players, the coaches, the staff. That’s what I’m thankful for. Got some good friends that have helped along the years. How about you guys? I appreciate you guys. I’m thankful for you guys.” — Vrabel to reporters on what he’s thankful for this year