The bad news is that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost three straight games. The good news is they still have half a game lead in the NFC South. With that being said, they can ill-afford to lose too many more games, including their Week 13 game against the Arizona Cardinals.
The injury list is a long one for the Buccaneers, with many key players questionable for this week, including quarterback Baker Mayfield. Even with that being the case, they’re set as slight home favorites in Sunday’s pivotal showdown.
Let’s take a look at the latest odds for the game and then I’ll attempt to predict the final score.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
The line has moved in favor of the Cardinals. They were 3-point underdogs early in the week but are now sitting as 2.5-point underdogs. The total for the game has decreased one point from 44.5 to 43.5.
In this week’s edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I made the case for backing the Cardinals:
The Buccaneers might just be a broken football team. Not only is Baker Mayfield now nursing an injury, but they have a net yards per play of -2.5 over their last three games, which is the worst mark in the NFL in that stretch by -0.4. Their EPA and success rate numbers have also dropped to the bottom half of the NFL.
The Cardinals aren’t a good team by any stretch, but Jacoby Brissett has played well enough that he should be able to take advantage of a bad Buccaneers’ secondary that has allowed teams to torch them in recent weeks.
When it comes to the total, I’m going to back the OVER. Yes, Mayfield and some other offensive pieces have been nursing some injuries, but both defenses in this game have been trending in the wrong direction in recent weeks. Even with the offenses not at full strength, I don’t think they’ll struggle to move the ball down the field.
Final score prediction: Cardinals 27, Buccaneers 23
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