Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 13’s game between the Carolina Panthers and the Los Angeles Rams.

Rams–Panthers lands on the schedule like a status check on two franchises moving in opposite directions. Los Angeles is 9-2, living in that part of the year where home-field math and MVP whispers actually matter. Carolina is fighting, running it better, playing harder, but they’ve still worn a 40-9 home embarrassment and a 20-9 offensive face-plant in the last month. The market has already nudged toward that reality, and -10.5 at -110 is priced like a solid two-score gap, not a coin-flip slog. I’m comfortable approaching it from that view. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 13’s game between the Carolina Panthers and the Los Angeles Rams.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Even if we zoom in on recent form and forget priors, the box scores shout Rams. Their last four finishes are 34, 21, 42, 34, a +69 differential that works out to about +17 per game. Carolina’s last five come in at nine, 30, seven, 16, nine for a -46 differential, roughly -9 per game. Under the hood, Los Angeles sits around +0.08 EPA per play on offense and -0.13 on defense, while Carolina hovers near -0.05 on offense and +0.06 on defense. In the red zone, the Rams are cashing roughly 66% of trips into touchdowns, against a Panthers offense around 50% and a defense allowing TDs on more than 54% of opponent red-zone possessions. Stack that with third-down splits landing around 38% converted and 35% allowed for the Rams versus 35% converted and 44% allowed for Carolina, and you are staring at repeated separation, not fluky blowouts.

The matchup that actually closes the loop is Stafford against Ejiro Evero’s coverage world. Stafford’s living at 66.5% completions, 7.6 yards per attempt, 30 touchdowns and two interceptions. Your coverage splits have him at 0.39 EPA per play versus Cover 3 and 0.30 versus Cover 1, with 10 touchdowns and one pick combined. Carolina wants to live in split-safety, heavy zone, with roughly 80% of snaps in zone and about 46% disguised, leaning on Cover 2 and Cover 4 to cap explosives. Stafford is perfectly fine there, especially against Cover 2, but the real edge shows up when game situations drag the Panthers into single-high. Third-and-medium, third-and-long, two-minute, and we need a stop blitz calls naturally tilt them toward Cover 1 and Cover 3. McVay leans into that with 3×1 looks that isolate Puka weak and with empty or 3×2 formations that simplify rules. Now add the recent play-action and motion data: 0.673 EPA per play on play-action in Week 12, 0.543 in Week 10, motion up at 0.677 EPA in Week 12 and still positive in the other big wins. Those concepts are wired to stress rules, crack the split-safety shell, and get Carolina into exactly the coverages Stafford already punishes.

Rams vs. Panthers pick, best bet

The cleanest counterargument is on the ground, and it deserves respect. The Rams’ rushing EPA has slid negative, with a Week 12 line of 3.68 yards per carry and -0.156 EPA per rush, and their attempts have fallen from 43 in Week 9 to 19 in Week 12. Carolina’s run defense allows only -0.02 EPA per rush and has quietly been one of their better units, even while the raw yardage and touchdowns allowed pile up. The Panthers also run it efficiently themselves, at around 4.45 yards per carry and a small negative EPA that is still better than the Rams’ ground output. In a best-case Carolina script, that combination shortens the game, keeps Bryce Young ahead of the chains, and protects them from a true avalanche.

The problem is that their passing ceiling still looks capped in the teens when they face real offenses. Those same five games that include the road wins also include scoring lines of nine, seven, and nine. When they’re outclassed, the passing game has not been able to drag them back onto level footing, and Stafford is not handing them short fields with giveaways. Meanwhile, the Rams don’t actually need a dominant rushing day to cover -9.5; they need Stafford plus play-action plus red-zone finishing to land in the high 20s or low 30s while the defense squeezes Carolina back into that 14–17 range. With a top-tier pass-blocking line, a quarterback who almost never throws the ball to the wrong jersey, and a scheme that specifically attacks Carolina’s weak coverage shells on money downs, that outcome shows up more often than the Panthers grinding out a one-score loss.

From a betting perspective, I like paying the tax to buy off 10 and lay -9.5 at -130. You’re moving your break-even up a few ticks to avoid one of the most common final margins in a game that projects closer to two touchdowns than 1. If your standard play on a side is 1 unit, this sets up as a spot where 1.25 to 1.5 units makes sense rather than a half-unit nibble. The underlying efficiency gap, the coverage matchup, and the recent scoring arcs all point in the same direction. I expect the Rams to win this through Stafford’s arm, play-action explosives, and superior red-zone work, with Carolina’s offense again landing short of a real shootout.

Call it Rams 31, Panthers 17, and I’m happy to be in on -9.5 -130 with a real stake.

Best bet: Rams -9.5 (-130) at Panthers

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For a prop lean, I’d rather ride Puka’s ceiling than pay extra vig for a couple yards of cushion (90+ for -110) on the DK o/u yards line. He’s sitting right around 95 yards per game on close to double-digit targets, with a mid-20s target share baked in. Against zone, he has 59 catches for 668 yards on 201 routes, a 34.3% target rate and about 0.66 fantasy points per route, and Carolina plays zone on roughly 80% of its snaps with disguise on about 46%. McVay’s plan should lean into play-action (0.673 EPA per play in Week 12, 0.543 in Week 10) and 3×1 looks that drag the Panthers into the single-high Cover 1 and Cover 3 shells where Stafford is sitting at roughly 0.30–0.39 EPA per play. In that environment, 8–10 targets for Puka skew toward chunk plays, not empty underneath volume, which makes 90+ at -110 a ceiling bet I’m happy to endorse.

Best prop lean: Puka Nacua 90+ receiving yards (-110)

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