The Atlanta Falcons (4-7) and the New York Jets (2-9) meet Sunday in Week 13 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Falcons vs. Jets odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Falcons ended their 5-game skid with a 24-10 win over the New Orleans Saints. Atlanta won outright as a 2-point road underdog as the Under (40.5) hit. Veteran QB Kirk Cousins threw for 199 yards and 2 TDs in his second start of the season. He connected with WR Darnell Mooney for 74 yards and a score, while RB Bijan Robinson produced 107 total yards on 16 touches.

The Jets lost 23-10 to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 12, but covered as 14-point road underdogs as the Under (44.5) hitg. QB Tyrod Taylor threw for 222 yards (1 TD, 1 INT) starting for the benched Justin Fields. He found WR John Metchie 6 times for 65 yards and a score while RB Breece Hall totalled 119 yards in the loss.

The Falcons won the last meeting 13-8 in 2023, and have won 3 in a row over the Jets and 5 of the last 6. Atlanta leads the all-times series 9-5.

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Falcons at Jets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:56 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Falcons -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Jets +135 (bet $100 to win $135)Against the spread (ATS): Falcons -3 (-110) | Jets +3 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 38.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Falcons at Jets key injuries

Falcons

G Chris Lindstrom (foot) questionableWR Drake London (knee) outLB Malik Verdon (shoulder) outLB Josh Woods (hamstring) out

Jets

CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (hip) doubtfulWR Allen Lazard (neck) questionableDL Harrison Phillips (foot) questionableWR Garrett Wilson (knee) out/IRFalcons at Jets picks and predictionsPrediction

Falcons 20, Jets 14

PASS.

You can bet the Falcons (-160) moneyline, but I don’t like paying that juice, I’ll take the wager on the spread with slightly better odds, even if I’ve got to give a few points.

BET FALCONS -3 (-110).

I’m not going to pretend Falcons-Jets is the marquee matchup of the weekend, but there is a betting angle I feel good about — and I’m rolling with Atlanta to cover on the road. The spread is small, both teams have issues, but the matchup leans Atlanta for a few key reasons.

First, Cousins is back in the lineup. He’s not going to light the world on fire, but he’s steady enough, and he already has one start under his belt — a win over New Orleans. With Robinson as the focal point, the Falcons at least know what they want to be offensively. Even in last week’s sloppy game (too many penalties, rough third-down numbers), Atlanta still moved the ball and held up defensively.

The Jets, meanwhile, are in a bad spot. They switched from Fields to Taylor, and while that stabilizes things a bit, it doesn’t fix the lack of playmakers—especially with Wilson sidelined. New York has scored just 24 total points over the last 2 games, and now they’re staring down a Falcons defense that’s top-3 in sacks thanks to DE Jalon Walker and DE James Pearce Jr. bringing real juice to the pass rush.

Atlanta has also covered 4 of its last 6 against the Jets, and New York’s track record against NFC South opponents isn’t encouraging. Add in the Jets’ offensive issues, plus Atlanta’s ability to lean on Bijan, and I’m taking the Falcons to cover on Sunday.

BET UNDER 38.5 (-110).

Neither offense is doing much — both sit at 19.9 points per game — and both are missing their top receivers and neither team is rolling out its original QB1.

Atlanta’s offense looked better last week, but I don’t buy it carrying over, especially with Cousins behind a banged-up line. And the Jets? They’ve barely cracked 14 points all season unless special teams bails them out. I just don’t see either side pushing this total high enough.

I’m on the Under — this has “ugly, low-scoring grinder” written all over it.

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