The Buffalo Bills (7-4) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) meet Sunday in Week 13 at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Bills vs. Steelers odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Bills were upset 23-19 by the Houston Texans on Thursday night in Week 12, failing to cover as 5.5-point road favorites as the Under (44.5) hit. Buffalo turned the ball over 3 times, including 2 INTs from QB Josh Allen, who did not throw a TD pass for just the second time this season. RB James Cook led the offense with 116 rushing yards and a score.

The Steelers dropped their fourth game in the last 6, falling 31-28 to the Bears in Chicago as 2.5-point road underdogs as the Over (47) hit. The ground game was productive, with RB Kenneth Gainwell posting 92 yards and RB Jaylen Warren adding 68 and a TD. QB Mason Rudolph, starting for the injured Aaron Rodgers, went 24-of-31 for 171 yards with a TD and INT.

The Bills won 31-17 in last season’s AFC Wiild Card game and have won 2 straight and 4 of the last 5 meetings, but the Steelers lead the all-time series 17-13.

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Bills at Steelers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:03 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Bills -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Steelers +145 (bet $100 to win $145)Against the spread (ATS): Bills -3 (-115) | Steelers +3 (-105)Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Bills at Steelers key injuries

Bills

LB Terrel Bernard (elbow) outOT Spencer Brown (shoulder) outOT Dion Dawkins (shoulder) outWR Josh Palmer (ankle) questionable

Steelers

DT Derrick Harmon (knee) outOT Broderick Jones (neck) outBills at Steelers picks and predictionsPrediction

Bills 31, Steelers 21

PASS.

There is no doubt that the Bills (-175) are a talented team and have underperformed this season. I think they right the ship a bit in this one after a rough loss last week. I’ll take the better odds with the small spread.

BET BILLS -3 (-110).

Looking at this game, I keep coming back to one thing: I trust Buffalo way more than I trust Pittsburgh right now. Both teams need this game in a big way, but the Bills come in with extra rest after playing last Thursday, and that feels huge for a team trying to reset after a frustrating loss in Houston.

The Bills still move the ball as well as anyone, averaging 381.8 yards and 28.3 points per game. Allen hasn’t exactly been clean with the football the past few weeks, but this matchup lines up perfectly for him. Pittsburgh is 28th in total defense and dead last against the pass, giving up 258.7 yards per game. If there’s ever a spot for Allen and this receiving group to get right, this is it.

Pittsburgh has hung around all season, but they’re still relying on short fields and timely breaks to score. That’s tough to sustain against Buffalo’s defense, which is No. 1 in the league against the pass. Whether it’s Rudolph again or Rodgers gutting it out with that wrist injury, I don’t love their chances of consistently moving the ball.

And to me, that’s the biggest difference. Even when Buffalo is sloppy, they can score in bunches. Pittsburgh simply doesn’t have that gear. The Steelers’ defense has been giving up big numbers to much worse offenses than Buffalo’s, and I don’t see that changing here.

I’m laying the field goal. I think the Bills bounce back and win this by at least a touchdown.

BET OVER 45.5 (-110).

Buffalo’s offense still moves the ball at a high level — they’re top-3 in yards per game — and the Steelers have allowed 30+ points 5 different times. The Bills are more than capable of exploiting a secondary that ranks 31st against the pass.

Both defenses also force quicker possessions — Buffalo opponents run the 10th-fastest pace, Pittsburgh opponents the seventh-fastest — which usually creates more drives and more scoring chances.

If Buffalo jumps ahead early, which seems realistic, Pittsburgh will have no choice but to throw to try to keep up. Add it all up, and this matchup leans much more shootout than slugfest.

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