All of a sudden the AFC South looks competitive and after starting the season 7-1, the Colts have hit a bump in the road losing two of their last three (both on the road) and that’s allowed divisional rivals the Jaguars and today’s opposition the Texans to keep their hopes of winning the division alive, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

The Colts remaining schedule isn’t an easy one with this matchup with the shutdown Texans defence certainly not a straightforward task and that’s a defence that they will have to face twice, They also have two games to play against their other divisional rivals in the hunt for the title, the Jaguars and the clashes with the Seahawks (away from home) and the 49ers are hardly going to be simple tasks. Injuries have blighted the Texans season but their defence which is elite and allowing just 16.5 PPG this year, the best mark in the NFL, has allowed them to stay in games wins in their last three outings has seen them very much back in the playoff hunt.

The Texans have beaten the Colts in three straight meetings entering this matchup, Houston’s 1st 3-game win streak over Indy since 2015-16 – they have never beaten the Colts four straight times in franchise history. The Texans started their franchise history 0-13 SU on the road in Indianapolis, losing outright from 2002 to 2014, before their first win came from Brandon Weeden in 2015. Since then, Houston are 6-4 SU in Indy, and they’ve won three straight on the road vs. the Colts.

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The Colts loss to the Chiefs was a tough one last week with their defence on the field for 91 plays going to overtime. In the last 30 years, defences that are on the field for 90+ plays the week before, the team is just 12-26 SU and 15-21-2 ATS in their next game. Could fatigue be a factor this week for the Colts especially as they play a Texans side that comes into this not only off a good win against the Bills but one that has in effect come off a mini bye having played Buffalo on a Thursday night.

More good news for the Texans has also arrived in the shape of their starting quarterback C.J. Stroud returning to the side after missing the last three games due to a concussion. With Stroud back and on the back of that three game winning streak they certainly have a chance of putting a run together to steal the division, something that looked unlikely at the start of November.

Stroud’s opposite number Colts QB, Daniel Jones is reportedly dealing with a “fracture in his fibula,” which does not seem pleasant. He is expected to try to play through the ailment but looked noticeably slowed and uncomfortable in videos from practice Thursday. Sixth-round rookie Riley Leonard is currently the backup, with Anthony Richardson still on injured reserve. Jones having made an excellent start to the season certainly hasn’t looked the same player in the last few weeks being under heavy pressure and it’s shown in his statistics. Despite winning two of those games, he had seven turnovers, has been sacked 15 times and produced two of his three worst passer ratings this season. He’s likely to see even more pressure Sunday, and with that reported leg injury affecting his mobility the aggressive Texans defence is sure to come after Jones. Houston sacked Buffalo’s Josh Allen a career-high eight times last week and they will be gunning for Jones here.

In essence, this game looks to revolve around how well the Colts offence plays against the Texans defence and we can see that within these statistics. The Colts offence lead the league in points per drive (3.04, while the Houston defence has allowed the fewest points per drive (1.40). The Colts have a first down or a touchdown on 30.8% of their early-down plays, the highest rate in the league. The Texans have allowed a first down or touchdown on 20.5% of early-down plays, the lowest rate in the league. You get the picture!
If the Colts offence fails then their eight game winning streak at home, the 2nd-longest active streak in the league and their longest streak as a franchise since 2008-2009 is clearly under threat.

The health of Jones is one of the primary narratives for this game and it really could affect the way the Colts offence operates especially as he comes into this game off a performance against the Chiefs where Jones threw for a season-low 5.8 yards per pass attempt. It was a game that he started well but gradually flatlined and the game on the back of the Jones injury has the feel of one in which the Colts are forced out of structure. Should that happen, we might see something we haven’t seen in many games this season: the Colts failing to control the game environment. Now he goes up against a Houston defence allowing the fewest yards per game (264.3), the league’s third lowest completion rate (58.9%), second fewest yards per pass attempt (6.2), and an NFL-low 72.2 passer rating.

If the Texans can limit the Colts offence early and gain a lead we could see Jones asked to throw more than usual here and force him into a structure and game environment he’s not used to. Only Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones, and Bo Nix have thrown multiple touchdown passes against Houston.
Of course, the Colts do have Offensive Player of the Year candidate RB Jonathan Taylor to fall back on but he was kept in check by the Chiefs last Sunday rushing 16 times for 58 yards (3.6 YPC), catching 2 of 3 targets for 8 yards. It was inevitable that Taylor would have some weeks when he slowed down his production but when he slows, so do the Colts. The Texans did show some slight vulnerability against the run last week when the Bills James Cook returned a 17/116/1 rushing line, although it should be noted that Cook is the only 100-yard rusher they have allowed all season, and only one other back has reached 100 total yards against them (Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay). Taylor is more than capable of joining those two running backs such is his talent and where Houston have allowed production to running backs is that they have allowed 9 rushing touchdowns (20th). The Colts have converted 22 of 23 (95.7%) of their goal-to-go situations into touchdowns, 2nd in the league.

If Jones is limited in his mobility it will clearly restrict his rushing ability and movement in the pocket and the Colts passing game may well become one that has to dink-and-dunk it’s way down the field rather than looking for the big shots that they have been capable of. All of that would mean that the likes of rookie TE Tyler Warren, and WRs Michael Pittman and Josh Downs would see increased volume and more looks, while primary downfield threat Alec Pierce may well have his threat limited. If the Colts are forced into a passing mode they run into a Texans pass defence that has given up the NFL’s third fewest catches (109), seventh fewest yards (1,374), and second fewest receiving TDs (6) to wide receivers.

The important element for the Texans offence to be effective against a Colts defence that whilst not at the level of Houston’s isn’t by any means one that can be taken lightly will be to keep QB C.J. Stroud clean in the pocket. When kept clean, Stroud is 14th in the ratings with a 106.8 rating, completing 72.1% of his passes for 7.7 yards per pass attempt with 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. When pressured, Stroud drops to 24th in rating (60.4), completing 52.9% of his passes for 5.4 Y/A with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Colts DC Lou Anarumo’s unit has allowed the NFL’s eighth lowest passer rating (85.9) while ranking sixth in the league in both sacks (33) and pressure rate (25.2%) and it’s fair to say that Stroud has been underwhelming this season.

He’s probably not been helped by the fact that the Houston run game has been moderate ay best and they have struggled to run the ball efficiently behind one of the worst run-blocking offensive lines in the league, meaning that the offence has lacked any balance. It would appear that rookie RB Woody Marks has now taken over as the lead running back having done so in the last three games with touch counts of 16, 19, and 17. However, despite the usage Marks does not have glowing metrics as a runner, returning a 33% success rate (30th) while 22.6% of his runs have failed to gain yardage (31st). Marks has a really good receiving background, he caught 261 balls in his college career but the Texans just have not used him in the passing game, although the balance could shift a little with Stroud back at quarterback. The Colts are allowing 3.9 YPC to running backs (12th) but have allowed six rushing touchdowns over their past four games.

Stroud does come back as the starter with a full complement of healthy pass catchers with all of Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, Jayden Higgins, Christian Kirk, and Xavier Hutchinson on the field. Collins and Higgins look to be the main wide receiving duo in two WR sets but they will find life difficult here as they run into Colts CBs Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward, who now form arguably the premier man-coverage corner duo in the league. Collins is good enough and capable of beating anyone one-on-one in the league but he will have to be at his best here. It may well be that TE Dalton Schultz is the way to beat the Colts through the air despite a quiet game against the Bills, Schultz still has five or more receptions in seven of his past nine games. Schultz also leads the Houston offence in catches (34), yards (357), and first-down conversions (18) on Stroud’s 2025 throws and he comes up against a Colts defence allowing the NFL’s third most yards (794) to tight ends.

The Colts are 5-0 at Lucas Oil Stadium this season with four of those wins coming by double digits and they lead the NFL with 31.0 points per game and 3.04 points per drive but the injury to Jones and the elite Texans defence could see them pushed outside of their structure and comfort zone here. If that happens and the Texans are allowed to control the game environment, their ability to for their offence to match the level of their defence will come into sharp focus in a game where the winner will have gain an advantage in the AFC South title race especially with the amount of divisional games that these two have left to play. All the signs point to this being a game where scoring opportunities may be limited and it will be important to take what is on offer offensively.

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