Both the Bills and the Steelers consider themselves to be playoff teams but time is running out for either to prove that to be the case, writes ANDY RICHMOND.
The Bills best hope looks to be a wildcard spot this season as at 7-4 they are trail the 10-2 Patriots in the AFC East and it would need an almighty collapse by New England for the Bills to claim that title. The Steelers look like they are going to be involved in a battle royal to win the AFC North with the Ravens and now the Bengals managing to resurrect their seasons of late. The Steelers have had a rather up-and-down season that has seen them lose four of their last six and two of their last three. After winning their first four games the Bills have been inconsistent losing four of their last seven and both sides enter this game on the back of a defeat.
The Bills have been a “Jekyll and Hyde” team this season, posting huge games in wins and laying complete duds in other spots and this game is an important one having as it does huge implications in the AFC playoff race.
One of the elements of the game that could be a deciding factor could be that of turnovers and protecting the football will be paramount for the Bills. Not only is this game on the road, where the Bills have scored fewer than 20 points in all three road losses, but Pittsburgh is tied for second in the NFL in takeaways (20). Buffalo have three straight games with three turnovers, the team’s longest single-season streak since 2006. On the upside for the Bills, QB Josh Allen has toyed with the Steelers over the year’s going 4-1 including an easy victory in the opening round of the 2023 playoffs in which he passed for three touchdowns and ran for another.
Allen remains the driving force behind the Bills and the offence in particular although at times he has to don his “Superman” cape operating as he does behind an offensive line that can struggle to protect him and a pass catching corps that is less than elite. Protection along with preventing turnovers looks to be another key area that could decide this game for the Bills who will go into this game without their top two protectors as both LT Dion Dawkins and RT Spencer Brown have been ruled out. Whoever is out there will have to deal with a Pittsburgh pass rush that includes seven-time Pro Bowler T.J. Watt, who almost single-handedly helped the Steelers get their lone win over Allen in a Week 1 upset to start the 2021 season. Allen will be facing a Steelers defence that has plenty of talent but has underwhelmed and underperformed this season and the Bears took advantage to become the fifth team to reach 31 points against the Steelers this season.
Since that last meeting, the most significant change for the Steelers has been at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers now directing the traffic on offence and he’ll return to the lineup after sitting out the loss to the Bears with a left wrist injury.
The Bills 7-4 record would be fine for many teams but is rather below-par for one with Super Bowl aspirations and the splits in how this teams perform are rather revealing. The Bills are averaging 2.02 points per drive on the road (17th) compared to 3.10 points per drive at home (2nd) and Buffalo have scored 28+ points in all seven of their victories, while scoring 20 points or less in all four of their losses. The defence has been genuinely consistently disappointing, as they have been gashed in the running game all year (only the Giants are worse in run defence) and they have only held the Jets, Saints, and Panthers under 21 points.
Allen comes into this game off one of his poorest games of the season and a performance where for only the second time this season he didn’t throw a touchdown pass, taking a career-high eight sacks. Here is faces a defence that has corelated highly with their ability to deliver pressure, when the Steelers have pressured the quarterback, they have allowed a 46.5% completion rate (10th), 5.8 yards per pass attempt (10th), and a league-low 0.8% touchdown rate. Without pressure, the Steelers have allowed a 71.8% completion rate (17th), 7.6 Y/A (20th), and a 5.9% touchdown rate (23rd). With his two main protectors missing this game, the pressure that the Steelers will be or won’t be able to exert on Allen is probably one of the major deciding factors in how this game will ebb and flow. Allen has thrown 5 touchdowns to 5 interceptions on the road this season and the Bills have not played well in either of their past two road games, but there are paths to upside against an up-and-down Pittsburgh defence. The Steelers have allowed 3 passing touchdowns in 3 of their past 6 games and they are still allowing a league-high 277.6 passing yards per game.
The Bills receivers this season have been a real mixed bag and at times it’s hard to work out who will be getting the ball and being the main receiver, it’s almost receiving by committee and below TE Dalton Kincaid (not certain to return) and WR Khalil Shakir is a real rotation. The only real receiving option that can be trusted in this situation is Shakir who had season highs in targets (10), receptions (8), and receiving yards (110) on Thursday. With a 4.0-yard aDOT (average depth of target)— lowest of his career — Shakir runs short routes Allen could target often to counteract Pittsburgh’s pass rush.
The engine room of the Bills offence though apart from Allen is RB James Cook who is second in the NFL in rushing yards although like Allen he will suffer from the missing pieces on the offensive line and the Steelers have held three of their last four opponents under four yards per carry, including Jonathan Taylor and the Colts. However, Cook like Allen can at times put this offence on his back and comes into this game off the back of a strong showing against an elite Texans defence that saw him rush 17 times for a touchdown while catching 3 passes for 13 yards. Cook is coming off facing two front-end run defences in Tampa Bay and Houston and this is another tough draw but they have allowed some of the league’s better running backs (and Cook is one of that group) to rack up 100 plus yard games and it won’t be a surprise to see another strong showing from Cook.
⭐️ STARSPORTS.BET MATCH MARKETS ⭐️
Rodgers returns to run the Steelers offence that has a rather conservative nature with Rodgers keen to “protect” himself via quick short passing to underneath targets. Rodgers has thrown 30.8% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, the second-highest rate in the league. A league-low 45.3% of his passes have been five or more yards downfield.
The league rate is 55.1% and the threat of getting hurt by a deep ball thrown by Rodgers is negligible as he’s not completed a pass 20 or more yards downfield since Week 8 and is 7 of 28 on those throws this season. With the Bills allowing a league-low 182.8 passing yards per game they are very much a run funnel defence. This is a Steelers team that will run the ball, and when they throw it will usually be in a conservative way.
The Bills defence leans right into what the Steelers want to do and that’s “run the damn ball” and considering that Rodgers is returning from injury and the run game matchup looks positive we can expect to see plenty of the Steelers RBs, Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren who are being given a near even split on playing time. Warren would look to be the more “bludgeoning” of the two backs with Gainwell providing the change of pace, pass catching, and explosive element. Buffalo are allowing 5.3 YPC to running backs (31st) and 118.4 yards per game on the ground to backs (30th). Warren especially is in a great spot behind an offensive line that ranks eighth in run block win rate (72.2%).
Pittsburgh are not a team that are aggressive in creating explosive plays, and Buffalo are not a defence that gives them up, at least through the air.
Both sides are capable of winning what is a vital game for each of them but it’s a game where it’s to expect many explosive plays and for the scoreboard to be lit up. Buffalo’s offensive line issues are a legitimate problem for a team that lacks explosive weapons in the receiving game. Pittsburgh should be able to get pressure on Allen without blitzing, which means explosive plays from the Bills are unlikely, and the Steelers defence has been playing very well recently. Pittsburgh on offence are likely to just try and grind you into submission and with the lack of really explosive plays likely from either side it’s only really turnovers that will create the short fields that could see this game igniting into a game where both sides would be able to score quickly. It won’t be surprise to see this game come down to the last few plays in the 4th quarter with whoever has the ball last running out the victor in a game that has true and real playoff implications for both franchises.
RECOMMENDED BETS
BACK Jaylen Warren OVER +61.5 rushing yards 1pt at 10/11 (⭐️
?
CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Kenneth Gainwell OVER +29.5 rushing yards 1pt at 10/11 (⭐️
?
CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Jaylen Warren to score a TD anytime 0.5pt at 13/10 (⭐️
?
CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Kenneth Gainwell to score a TD anytime 0.5pt at 23/10 (⭐️
?
CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Josh Allen OVER +29.5 rushing yards 1pt at 10/11 (⭐️
?
CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Josh Allen to score a TD anytime 1pt at 11/10 (⭐️
?
CLICK TO BET NOW)
PROFIT/LOSS (NOV 2025): -25.96 points
STAR PROMOTIONS