Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Sunday’s game between the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks in Week 13.

Several of the Week 13 games came and went on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, but Sunday brings more NFL action to enjoy. The Minnesota Vikings haven’t experienced the season they and the fans likely hoped for, and they face a difficult test against an impressive Seattle Seahawks squad that’s coming off its fourth straight win. Will Sam Darnold keep surging against his former team, or can third-string quarterback Max Brosmer summon something from deep within to topple a top contender?

Read on for a Vikings vs. Seahawks prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 13 showdown.

Vikings vs. Seahawks prediction, preview

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota entered the campaign with legitimate hopes of competing for a deep playoff run and a shot at the Super Bowl. With just a few weeks remaining in the regular season, the 4-7 record certainly won’t cut it in a competitive NFC North. The coaching of Kevin O’Connell hasn’t been able to cover up the shortcomings at quarterback this season — whether at the hands of J.J. McCarthy or Carson Wentz, few things seem to have gone right for this offense given the talent on the roster. The Vikings average just 20.4 PPG (25th) with 282.6 yards per game (29th), severely lacking in consistent production despite rolling out Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson as its primary pass catchers. The good news is that Aaron Jones has largely played well since returning from injury a couple weeks ago, but the bad news is that rookie quarterback Max Brosmer gets the start this week with McCarthy out with a concussion. There may be some potential here since the 24-year-old UDFA set the completions record at the University of Minnesota last season and tossed 18 touchdowns to six interceptions with 2,828 yards, and some within the Vikings’ media circles do believe there’s untapped talent in the rookie. However, Seattle is a bit of a nightmare first start given the defense, but more on that in a moment. Minnesota’s own defensive unit remains one of the NFL’s most creative under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, dialing up the sixth-best sack percentage and largely shutting down opposing passing attacks. However, the Vikings allow 23.2 PPG (18th) despite giving up 314.8 yards per game (10th), and they don’t force many turnovers with just 0.8 takeaways per contest.

Seattle Seahawks

On the opposite side of the spectrum are the Seahawks, who enter this week 8-3 and firmly in the hunt for a postseason berth. Much like the Vikings, Seattle moved on from a productive quarterback over the offseason in favor of a younger, but less proven option. Except in this case, the move from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold has paid dividends with the signal-caller eighth in the league in passing yards as well as tied for sixth in passing touchdowns. He’s truly excelled in his first season under Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, working as a game manager at worst with some flashes of high-octane gunslinging to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who currently paces the NFL in receiving yards in his third pro season. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet don’t steal the show in this run-heavy offense, but the halfback tandem also gets the job done to form a complete unit. The Seahawks average 29.5 PPG (second) and 364.6 yards per contest (seventh), also averaging the second-best yards per play and 11th-best conversion rate on third downs. Defensively, they’re arguably even better with 19.7 PPG allowed (seventh) and 301.0 yards given up (sixth), largely on the back of a fantastic run-stopping group (fourth in opponent rush yards) and quality pass rush (seventh in sack percentage). The 1.2 takeaways per game are also 12th in the league, rounding out one of the NFL’s top defensive units. There’s a ton to like about this team.

Vikings vs. Seahawks pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Seahawks are -11.5 home favorites with -750 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Vikings are listed at +525 to win outright with a game total of 41.5 points.

There’s a world in which Brosmer flashes the tools which have niche portions of the dynasty fantasy football community stashing him deep on benches — wouldn’t carrying his team to a heroic victory be quite the story? However, it’s highly unlikely to occur. A road tilt against a top-three NFL defense is probably the worst spot for a rookie’s first professional start, even if they have the benefit of some of the league’s top weapons on offense. Seattle grades out in the middle of the pack against the aerial attack with a defensive EPA/pass of -0.02, good for 13th, but even if the coverage falters at times against Jefferson, the unit should make life tough for Brosmer. The Vikings’ offensive line has consistently been one of the worst in the league this season, ranking 30th with a sack allowed on 10.37% of dropbacks. Starting tackle Christian Darrisaw is also questionable to play, so if he winds up inactive, time to throw and clean pockets will surely be scarce. The Seahawks don’t have true superstars on the defensive line, but they’re sixth in pass-rush win rate at 42%, per ESPN.

Minnesota may bottle up the pass, but the team ranks 23rd against the run in terms of average yards allowed (128.7) and just 16th in EPA/rush (-0.03). Seattle has an NFL-high rush play percentage and league-low passing rate, so Walker and Charbonnet have the benefit of matchup here. The run game sets up the pass for the Seahawks as well, allowing for elite efficiency with a league-best 9.3 yards per pass and the sixth-best completion rate at 69.21%. If there’s anything to glean here as well, it’s that an elite offensive line ranked second in sack percentage allowed can hold its own to keep Darnold upright, even against a Flores defense that sends all kinds of stunts and pressures.

In short, Seattle has all the tools to win while Minnesota will be left praying for a miracle to escape with a road win. The Seahawks may dominate this one, and while I like them to score plenty and cover, I prefer them to hold the Vikings under 14.5 points.

Best bet: MIN Vikings under 14.5 points (-118)