The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Denver Broncos players heading into their matchup with the Washington Commanders to help you craft a winning lineup.
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Bo Nix, QB
If you can connect the dots on when the good Bo Nix is going to show up, you’re a smarter person than I.
There is no denying that there is a ceiling to chase. He has four QB1 finishes this season, and three of them have been top-7 weeks. When he finds a groove, we are looking at a dual threat with the confidence to make a variety of plays and the freedom to do it.
That said, it’s anything but comfortable when your lineup locks with him in your starting lineup.
This season, there’s a 34.2-point gap between his worst and best games. He’s followed up three of his QB1 finishes without a QB15 or worse performance. His great games have come in positive matchups (NYG, CIN, and DAL), but his two single-digit games have come at home against the Raiders and Titans.
I don’t love the fact that he’s been held to under 10 rushing yards in three of his past four games or that he’s been vulnerable when pressured over the past two weeks (9-of-25 with zero scores and two interceptions).
This matchup puts Nix on the QB1 radar, and I have him ranked as such, but if there’s a quarterback I’m at risk of mis-ranking by 6-8 spots, he’s it.
And I’m not even sure what direction I’m most likely to miss on Nix.
If you have a great team, I’d try to stream in a level of safety. But if you’re flying by the seat of your pants with a sporadic roster that needs to punch above its weight, why not embrace the variance?
J.K. Dobbins, RB
A foot injury has landed J.K. Dobbins on IR and will likely end his fantasy season.
It’s a tough pill to swallow for managers, as he’s been a stable source of work all season, but you failed to build your roster properly if you were banking on a full season from the oft-injured running back.
Dobbins was drafted in 2020 and has played 47 career games (of a possible 101 regular-season games when this season ends). Use this as a reminder that you can NEVER have too much depth at the position, especially as the season nears its conclusion. This is the RJ Harvey show moving forward, and if you want to take a flier, Jaleel McLaughlin is worth a look for those struggling to build out their RB room.
Sean Payton is likely to keep multiple backs in the rotation, and while I think you’re drawing thin with McLaughlin, he figures to be on the field some and now carries a reasonable amount of contingent value.
RJ Harvey, RB
I’m willing to write off Week 11 and move forward with the high levels of optimism/excitement we had for RJ Harvey upon first learning that the role was his (JK Dobbins’ foot injury has him sitting on IR).
Against the Chiefs, he ran for just 30 yards on 11 carries and ceded the short touchdown to Jaleel McLaughlin. Both running backs got work on the first drive of the game, and Denver landed a season-defining upset over the divisional rival. It wasn’t a great first impression for Harvey as the lead, but I think that game was unique in that the Broncos treated it like a playoff game and didn’t want the rookie to feel too much pressure with the expanded role.
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Maybe I’m wrong.
Sean Payton likes versatility, and I think the division of carries is here to stay, but I do think Harvey is the clear RB1. I expect, with a week off to design to his strengths, we’ll see more of a commitment to him in this favorable spot.
Harvey has multiple receptions in seven of his past nine games, and asking him to pair a 13-16 carry role with that baseline is reasonable given the up-and-down nature of this passing game.
If that’s the role he assumes, we are talking about a safe RB2 with plenty of upside for more. The Commanders have a below-average defense in terms of both pre- and post-contact numbers in the run game to opposing running backs, a matchup that gives this team a good chance to build the confidence of their first year back.
Dobbins, a veteran with a resume filled with injuries, was being handed the ball 15.3 times per game. With time, I’d assume that Harvey fills a similar role sooner than later and works into lineup lock status by the time the fantasy postseason is upon us.
Courtland Sutton, WR
Courtland Sutton is fighting to retain his WR1 role in this offense, which lowers his upside significantly.
The consistency in the quality target department was something Sutton managers were willing to accept. Still, if the quantity is now second to Troy Franklin, there’s more risk than practical reward in this profile.
Race For WR1, Weeks 6-12
Sutton: 55.4 PPR points, 13.2% below expectation, 37 targets (three end zone)
Troy Franklin: 78.6 PPR points, 10.8% below expectation, 49 targets (eight end zone)
Sutton averages 14.1 yards per catch for his career (14.4 this season), so at least there is single-play upside, right?
Right??
In theory, the matchup gives you that (Washington has ranked bottom-5 all season in YPA on deep throws), but Sutton isn’t the lone target on those bombs now.
Weeks 1-9: 38.7% of his targets came deep downfield
Weeks 10-11: 16.7% of his targets came deep downfield
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This matchup and the scoring expectation of this offense have Sutton checking in as a viable flex for me this week, but I’m not super comfortable with it. His last top 30 performance came in Week 7, and given the volatility of Bo Nix, this is a player who can make or break your week.
Pat Bryant, WR
It would appear that Pat Bryant has usurped Marvin Mims for the WR3 role in this offense (Mims: consecutive games without a reception), and there’s a lot to like in the rookie’s profile as a piece of this Sean Payton system.
Also, I’m not sure the WR3 role in this offense matters.
Both things can be true. I like Bryant’s long-term trajectory. Heck, I might love it. In Week 10, a season-high 67.9% of his routes came in the slot, and he topped it in Week 11 (74.3%). He’s carving out a nice niche, but I think it’s too little too late for redraft purposes.
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Only three times this season has a Denver WR cleared 12 PPR points. Bo Nix isn’t the most consistent QB in the world, and with Troy Franklin/Courtland Sutton the clear top two options, banking on Bryant, even on the ascension, in a consistent way, is more optimistic than I’m willing to be.
The Broncos get the Raiders next week, with four teams on a bye. If you’re looking for a single spot to use him, that’s the one.
Evan Engram, TE
Things are trending away from Evan Engram after a minor run of optimistic usage, and I wouldn’t blame you if you dumped him to stream the position weekly.
Waiting to do so is also viable thanks to this matchup, but Engram’s status as a glorified streamer is there. Over Denver’s past three games, he’s turned 72 routes into just 45 receiving yards, and his role may regress before it bounces back.
Troy Franklin is the real deal, and Pat Bryant seems to be coming on strong. I’m not overly confident in relying on Bo Nix to get any one pass catcher the ball consistently, and it would certainly seem that Engram is fourth in this hierarchy.