Week 13of the NFL season wraps up with the New England Patriots hosting the New York Giants on”Monday Night Football.”
The Patriots have won nine straight and sit atop the AFC East at 10-2. Meanwhile, the Giants have lost six straight and are in last place in the NFC East at 2-10.
There is some good news for the Giants, however, as rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart cleared concussion protocol and will return to the lineup against the Patriots.
New England is a 7.5-point favorite for Monday’s game.
Matt Bowen, Liz Loza and Pamela Maldonado offer their picks, prop plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
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Game bet
Total points UNDER 46.5 (-112)
Maldonado: New England controls pace, wins time of possession, and forces long, methodical drives rather than explosive plays. The Patriots’ pass defense is disciplined and their pressure rate at home will disrupt Dart, which often leads to the Giants’ offense collapsing as they’re forced into obvious passing situations. With the Patriots missing two starting lineman and leaning on efficiency over aggression, this projects as a slower, lower-scoring game.
Notable player props, bets
TreVeyon Henderson 70+ rushing yards (+104)
Bowen: Let’s play the matchup with Henderson here. The Giants defense is allowing a league-worst 157.2 rushing yards per game. Henderson will see volume on Monday night, and we know he can create explosive plays.
Theo Johnson receiving yards OVER 32.5 (-109)
Loza: The run game is, understandably, pulling focus in this matchup, but there are points to be had through the air. New England has struggled to defend the pass, particularly in short-yardage situations. Meanwhile, Johnson ranks second on the Giants in routes run, targets drawn, catches collected and receiving yards registered since Dart took over in late September. Additionally, Johnson has gone over 35 receiving yards for three straight weeks, and he averaged 38 receiving yards with Dart as the starter from Weeks 4 through 10. As 7.5-point underdogs likely to be chasing points, and given that the Patriots have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends, Johnson figures to flirt with upwards of 40 receiving yards.
Bowen’s DFS tips for Monday’s DraftKings Captain Showdown
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Drake Maye($17,700). I’m going with Maye and his dual-threat ability versus the Giants defense. Maye has thrown for over 270 yards in three straight games, with 20 or more rushing yards in three of his last five.
Flex: Theo Johnson($5,800). Let’s take a shot on Johnson with Dart back under center for the Giants. New England is allowing an average of 63.3 yards per game to opposing tight ends, and Johnson has the ability to stretch the seams while making himself available to Dart in the red zone.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Giants are 8-15 ATS on the road since 2023. They are 0-6 outright on the road this season (3-3 ATS).
The over has hit in five of the Giants’ last six games when facing a team with a winning record.
New England is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games.
The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with losing records.
The Patriots have won their last four home games.
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