The Miami Dolphins picked up their fifth win of the season against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, and it was the running game and the defense that carried the team.
Miami’s defense shut out the Saints until about 10 minutes left in the third quarter and made the final stop on a quarterback sneak. De’Von Achane had 134 yards on the ground, giving him 1,000 rushing yards in a single season for the first time.
The one facet of the game that didn’t carry its weight was Tua Tagovailoa and the passing game. We’ve covered the running game and defense’s steady improvement for this column a lot, so we will pivot to focusing on the passing game this week.
Let’s dive in.
Tua is Getting Worse
Tua’s overall numbers from Sunday were not good. He finished the game completing just 12 of 23 passes for 134 yards for no touchdowns and one interception. Those numbers are troublesome on their own, but the film shows a player missing layups — and a lot of them.
— Dante Collinelli (@DanteCollinelli) December 1, 2025
This play stands out because it is a classic Mike McDaniel-Tua concept. Miami’s formation (three backfield players lined up in a straight line) is new, but it’s all in service of getting to the wheel-curl-flat concept at the top of the screen that it loves.
Tua has run this play probably 200 times in the past four-odd seasons, so this read is simply baffling. He passes up Waddle in the middle of the field because of the safety, which makes total sense. He’s hit that throw before, but it’s an unnecessary risk.
Then he flips his eyes and should have a clear view of the cornerback sinking to match Washington’s wheel route. Instead of throwing the ball to the flat, the natural next step in the progression, Tua throws a jump ball to his 5-10 receiver at the front pylon.
This pass should have been intercepted, and if you’re going to throw this ball, it has to be back shoulder. That lets Washington spin away from the defender who has leverage.
— Dante Collinelli (@DanteCollinelli) December 1, 2025
Tua didn’t learn his lesson because his interception a few drives later is a similar missed read. The Saints show a two-high look pre-snap but move cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry to deep-half safety before the snap.
This ends up resembling invert-tampa-2, which means the safety and the cornerback flip responsibility, and the linebacker runs the seam. The specific coverage is less important because, regardless of the nomenclature, there will always be a player with deep leverage.
There is no version of events here where Waddle is running free into the end zone. You can see Tua has his eyes up when he loads the throw. He should see McKinstry back there, but he just throws the ball anyway.
Setting the read aside, this throw is a total duck. There is a window for a completion, but Tua would have to pin the ball on Waddle before McKinstry arrived — not float the ball into the end zone.
Also, if you watch Waller’s route from the slot, he ends up bending back toward the outside. If you view Waddle as a clear-out, this is a wonderful concept against this coverage.
— Dante Collinelli (@DanteCollinelli) December 1, 2025
So, we’ve got bad reads and bad throws. But those were downfield shots and not technically “layups.” This throw to Hill is 100% as easy as it gets, though.
Could Hill have caught this pass? Sure. Would I have preferred Waller or Greg Dulcich to run that route? Probably. But there is no reason for this throw to be on the back shoulder.
He’s running into wide open space on the sideline — just pop it over the underneath defender’s head and let him run to the ball. Tua has regressed this season, but short, touch throws are not something he usually misses.
— Dante Collinelli (@DanteCollinelli) December 1, 2025
Here’s another miss from Tua outside the pocket. This is a pretty simple read, but you can just see the lack of arm talent when he tries to drive a tight window to Waddle. The ball dies the second it leaves his hand, allowing the CB to step in front of it.
I would also argue that this isn’t a good read. Waddle is well covered, and Washington is running away from his defenders across the field. There’s no pressure on Tua, so he’s got time to reset his feet if he wants, but instead, he throws another dropped INT.
— Dante Collinelli (@DanteCollinelli) December 1, 2025
In the interest of fairness, not everything in the passing game is his fault. The Saints got four sacks in this game, and at least half were on the offensive line. Here, New Orleans uses a simulated pressure.
The Saints threaten to come from Tua’s right but drop out and bring a CB blitz from Tua’s left instead. Miami picks this up fairly well, actually, but Austin Jackson loses his one-on-one at the top of the screen, and Jonah Savaiinaea loses at the bottom.
As for the concept, it’s third-and-long, and Miami runs all deep curls. Nobody is open, and Tua gets sacked. The quarterback had no shot here.
What Can Miami Do?
The real issue that jumped out while watching the film from Sunday is that it’s hard to pin down something Miami can do schematically to help Tua get back to his previous form.
He’s not solely responsible for the passing game’s struggles. The team has questionable pass protection, sorely lacks a legitimate pass-catching threat outside of Waddle, and the passing concepts are fairly predictable.
However, there’s been a huge push to make things as easy as possible for Tua this season. The Dolphins are ninth in the NFL in play-action percentage (16.8%), and that number has increased since Week 9 to 18%.
Miami has also become a dominant running team. The Dolphins are ninth in rushing yards since Week 9, and their 5.4 yards per rush is fourth during that span.
For the season, the Dolphins have attempted the seventh-most passes of zero air yards (throws behind the line of scrimmage).
That doesn’t even get into the fact that Miami’s passing game has never asked an overwhelming amount from its QB in the first place. It’s always been a heavy-RPO system that capitalized on creating space and timing more than anything else.
That’s not to take anything away from what Tua has accomplished in the past, but more to point out that the Dolphins are pushing every “easy button” imaginable in the offense, and the quarterback is getting worse.
Tua’s decision-making has been brutal this season, and his already underwhelming physical traits have regressed. If he keeps missing the layups he missed against the Saints, there’s not much else the coaching staff can do.
Tua’s short-game work and accuracy are what made him at least passable for most of the season. If those skills evaporate, it might get ugly down the stretch.
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