The Indianapolis Colts dropped to 8-4 on Sunday with a 20-16 loss to the Houston Texans, who now sit just one game back from the division lead. The loss was Indy’s first at home this season, previously a perfect 6-0 heading into Sunday.

Quarterback Daniel Jones was unable to assist the team in a late effort to try and complete the comeback win. Jones and the Colts are now 2-for-5 on game-winning drive attempts this season, with wins over the Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals. In consecutive weeks, however, the unit has fallen short of victory in crunch time.

When it comes to total quarterback rating, Jones has faltered late in games more than almost every starter in the NFL. His 33.8 QBR in the fourth quarter and overtime this season comes in at 28th best in the league. That’s worse than quarterbacks Justin Fields (benched on Nov. 17), Jacoby Brissett (backup filling in due to injury), and rookie Cam Ward.

ESPN’s total QBR metric takes into account the down, yards to go for a first down, distance to the end zone, and time remaining in the half. Comparatively, passer rating simply looks at box score stats such as attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. QBR tells a more complete story, with a score of 50.0 being considered average.

In the last two weeks, the Colts received opportunities to defeat both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans late in the fourth quarter and/or overtime. Against the Chiefs, the Colts went three-and-out four straight times to end the game, including on the first possession of overtime after electing to receive.

This past Sunday against Houston, the Colts’ final drive of the game spanned three minutes and just eight plays before inevitably turning the ball over on downs and losing the game. Across both fourth quarters and the singular overtime period against the Chiefs and Texans, Jones went 5-for-15 overall and led the team to just one first down conversion.

“I was shocked to hear that he’s playing through this.”

Alex Smith says Daniel Jones’ “mobility is not the same” with his fractured fibula 😯 pic.twitter.com/wN87XFjU1h

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 30, 2025

Now obviously, no statistic on paper can tell the whole story. On the Thursday before the game, it was reported by Ian Rapoport that Jones suffered a fracture in his fibula. Head coach Shane Steichen and the Colts would neither confirm nor deny the report; however, Jones popped up as limited on the injury report with a calf injury the Thursday ahead of the team’s game against the Chiefs.

Jones has posted solid numbers since the announcement of the injury as well. In his past two games, he’s gone 33/58 with four touchdowns to zero turnovers, posting a passer rating of 100. He’s also taken just one sack.

Entering the bye week, ball security had become a point of concern after Jones turned the ball over seven times across the two weeks before the break, tossing four interceptions and losing three fumbles. Jones’ nine total fumbles on the season are tied for the most in the league with Cam Ward.

Having seemingly cleaned up the turnover issues, one would assume substantial offensive output would continue, akin to that of the team’s first eight weeks. The inverse has been the case, and there’s valid room for concern that the slow decline of the team’s production is not solely due to Jones’ calf injury.

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Across the team’s past four games, their offense has regressed in nearly every vital metric. Their third-down conversion rate has dropped from the 4th-best in the league to the 26th. Their points per game, yards per game, and total expected points added (EPA) have all dropped from the best marks in the league to ranking in the double digits, with both points per game and EPA dropping into the lower half of the league.

The Colts have seemingly lost the identity that earned them so much national praise to start the season. Steichen’s “throw to score, run to win” philosophy had worked great through the first eight games of the season. Running back Jonathan Taylor has seen over 20 carries in just four games this season, and the team is 3-1 in those games. All four games have been decided by one score, with the only loss coming to Houston this past Sunday.

Taylor finished his day against Kansas City with just 16 carries for 58 yards, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Faring slightly better against Houston, Taylor posted 85 yards on the ground on 21 carries, an average of 4.0 per rush.

This was the first time since week 14 of the 2024 season in which Taylor averaged under 4.0 yards per carry in back-to-back games. The Colts are 0-3 this season when Taylor doesn’t eclipse an average of 4.0 yards per rush in one-score games.

Calen Bullock on @gmfb on the Jonathan Taylor:

“We gotta stop the run. That’s their whole offense. The whole offense go through Jonathan Taylor. He’s the best back this year. Once you stop him we feel like the offense don’t have nothing else.” pic.twitter.com/qfdlU9w7Ao

— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) November 28, 2025

Ahead of Sunday’s week 13 matchup, Texans safety Calen Bullock angered Colts fans for stating that if you can stop Jonathan Taylor, Indy’s offense has “nothing else.” Well, Jonathan Taylor was stopped, and for the third time in four weeks, the Colts’ offense has fallen flat late in the game with no one to rely on for late-game heroics. If Shane Steichen and company can’t get their superstar tailback going early, the results tell us that there isn’t much to be afraid of from what was once viewed as the league’s best offense.

After the Colts’ 1-3 performance in November, spectators can’t help but wonder if the offense’s decline will snowball in December or correct itself before it costs the team the playoffs. Following a 7-1 start, the now 8-4 Indianapolis Colts will hope to hang on to the division that they once led by 2.5 games.

Indianapolis takes on the Jaguars in Jacksonville this Sunday, seeking to end a decade-long losing streak in EverBank Stadium. They’ll then head west to take on the currently 9-3 Seattle Seahawks. Based on the records of remaining opponents, the Colts have the most difficult remaining schedule in the NFL, per Tankathon.

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