The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers are set to throw down in a pivotal NFC North duel. The surprisingly good Bears are currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but if they lose to the Packers on Sunday, they’ll not only fall out of the top spot in the conference, but the Packers will take the lead in the division.

Let’s dive into the odds and my best bet for this marquee matchup in Week 14.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

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Moneyline

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Bears Injury ReportPackers Injury Report

Caleb Williams has played well this season, throwing for 2,722 yards, 17 touchdowns, and only five interceptions. He’s done a much better job this season, avoiding sacks and taking off with his legs when he needs to. He hasn’t been elite, but he hasn’t lost games for the Bears either. Can he take a step forward in his development in the final stretch of the season?

In this week’s edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I wrote about why the Bears are my upset pick of the week:

It’s time to start believing in the Chicago Bears. Despite the metrics showing they aren’t nearly as good as their record, they find ways to win games. Whether it’s against an inferior or superior opponent, they’ll squeak out a win via strong play by their offensive line, winning the turnover battle, and taking advantage of late-game opportunities.

The Packers have been the complete opposite of that this season. Their underlying metrics are elite, but they’ve let moments and games slip through their grasp more than once. The Packers’ defense ranks outside the top 10 in opponent rush success rate, while the Bears are first in offensive rush success rate. That could be the difference-maker, and it’s enough for me to back the Bears as my upset pick of the week.

Pick: Bears +245 via FanDuel

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You can check out all of Iain’s bets here!