The Athletic as live coverage of the latest release of the 2025 College Football Playoff rankings.
All eyes are on Alabama this weekend, and it’s not just because the Tide currently occupy the final at-large spot in the College Football Playoff. What happens to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game could impact up to 30 other bowl matchups, most of which have nothing to do with the game itself.
Let’s look at it from three different angles. One, if Alabama beats Georgia, then only the slotting within the current CFP rankings changes. Two, if Alabama loses a one-score game, it’s difficult to imagine the Tide falling from their current spot. (If that were to happen, conference’s desire to keep staging championship games will disintegrate faster than an ice cube at a summer picnic.)
But a third outcome could have major ramifications. If Georgia beats Alabama soundly — say, 31-17 — will the Tide remain in the CFP lineup? If not, will Miami or BYU (if it loses to Texas Tech) replace Alabama? Let’s ride this scenario for a minute.
If Miami jumps ahead of Alabama and BYU, then its head-to-head result with Notre Dame will come into focus, and the Hurricanes could sneak past the Irish. Meanwhile, Alabama would fall into the SEC’s non-CFP bowl pool. It probably wouldn’t head to the Citrus Bowl, which wouldn’t want to match it up with Michigan for the third straight bowl cycle. The ReliaQuest Bowl, where it played last year, hasn’t had a repeat participant since Tennessee in 2007-08.
So, if Alabama falls, does it go to the Gator Bowl or the Music City Bowl? The answer impacts the rest of the conference. But the SEC projects to have two vacancies in its lineup, and many Group of 6 teams would love to get a crack at an SEC bowl with a vacancy — right now, that projects to be the Liberty and Duke’s Mayo bowls. The ripple effect for other bowls would be felt from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.
For now, we’ll keep projecting the Tide in the CFP, considering they won at Georgia during the regular season. Here are a few other noteworthy projections:
• Should BYU lose to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, the Cougars are likely headed back to the Alamo Bowl for the second straight season. BYU would play a Pac-12 legacy team, most likely USC, which has never played in the Alamo Bowl.
• Michigan-Texas in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Eve would approach CFP-level television ratings. It also could serve as a 2026 Heisman Trophy springboard between Texas quarterback Arch Manning and Michigan’s Bryce Underwood.
• Iowa State and Minnesota’s campuses are located just three hours apart, and the teams constantly recruit against one another, but they’ve played just five times in the last 101 years. A duel in the desert would entertain both fan bases.
• Pittsburgh vs. Penn State at Yankee Stadium for their 101st meeting would have Pinstripe Bowl officials dancing in the Bronx.
• Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia battling Iowa’s defense under coordinator Phil Parker in Tampa would kick off New Year’s Eve in fine fashion.
This year, all 82 bowl slots can be filled without turning to Academic Progress Rates among 5-7 squads. If a team drops out due to player attrition like Marshall did last year, then Auburn would be the first alternate.
A few evergreen notes:
The highest-ranked five conference champions plus the top seven at-large teams qualify for the 12-team College Football Playoff. The four highest-ranked teams earn first-round byes. Those teams will play in the Cotton (Dec. 31), Orange (Jan. 1), Rose (Jan. 1) and Sugar (Dec. 31) bowls. Teams seeded 5-8 host seeds 9-12 on Dec. 19-20. Should the Big Ten and SEC champions earn byes, they will play in the Rose and Sugar bowls, respectively. The next-highest ranked squad heads to the closest remaining bowl site to its campus.
The former Pac-12 schools still fall under the conference’s old agreements. It’s possible to see current in-conference matchups in the Alamo, Vegas, Holiday or Sun bowls.
ESPN Events owns the Bahamas Bowl and will move it to a different location, which has yet to be announced. It will take place.
BowlMatchup
LA
Dec. 13, 2025
Pac-12 6 Arizona State
MWC 1 Boise State
Salute to Veterans
Dec. 16, 2025
Sun Belt Southern Miss
MAC Toledo
Cure
Dec. 17, 2025
Sun Belt Old Dominion
G5/Open Kennesaw State
68 Ventures
Dec. 17, 2025
Sun Belt Louisiana
Open Missouri State
Myrtle Beach
Dec. 19, 2025
Sun Belt Georgia Southern
Open Delaware
Gasparilla
Dec. 19, 2025
SEC/ACC/AAC NC State
Open USF
Famous Idaho Potato
Dec. 22, 2025
MWC Utah State
MAC Central Michigan
Boca Raton
Dec. 23, 2025
Open Coastal Carolina
Open Florida International
New Orleans
Dec. 23, 2025
Sun Belt Troy
CUSA Jacksonville State
Frisco
Dec. 23, 2025
G5 Texas State
G5 Fresno State
Hawai’i
Dec. 24, 2025
MWC Hawaii
American/Other California
GameAbove Sports
Dec. 26, 2025
Big Ten 8 Northwestern
MAC Ohio
Rate
Dec. 26, 2025
Big Ten 7 Minnesota
Big 12 6 Iowa State
First Responder
Dec. 26, 2025
Open Washington State
Open Arkansas State
Military
Dec. 27, 2025
American Navy
ACC 8 Louisville
Pinstripe
Dec. 27, 2025
Big Ten 6 Penn State
ACC 5-7 Pittsburgh
Fenway
Dec. 27, 2025
ACC 9 Duke
American Army
Arizona
Dec. 27, 2025
MWC San Diego State
MAC 2 Western Michigan
Pop-Tarts
Dec. 27, 2025
Big 12 3 TCU
ACC 2-4 Georgia Tech
New Mexico
Dec. 27, 2025
MWC New Mexico
Open UTSA
Gator
Dec. 27, 2025
ACC 2-4 Miami
SEC 3-8 Missouri
Texas
Dec. 27, 2025
Big 12 4 Houston
SEC 3-8 LSU
Birmingham
Dec. 29, 2025
ACC/SEC/Open East Carolina
SEC/ACC/Open UConn
Independence
Dec. 30, 2025
Big 12 7 Kansas State
CUSA/Sun Belt Louisiana Tech
Music City
Dec. 30, 2025
Big Ten 5 Illinois
SEC 3-8 Tennessee
Alamo
Dec. 30, 2025
Big 12 2 BYU
Pac-12 2 USC
ReliaQuest
Dec. 31, 2025
Big Ten 3 Iowa
SEC 3-8 Vanderbilt
Sun
Dec. 31, 2025
ACC 5-7 Clemson
Pac-12 5 Arizona
Citrus
Dec. 31, 2025
Big Ten 2 Michigan
SEC 2 Texas
Las Vegas
Dec. 31, 2025
Pac-12 3 Utah
Big Ten 4 Nebraska
Armed Forces
Jan. 2, 2026
Open UNLV
American North Texas
Liberty
Jan. 2, 2026
Big 12 5 Cincinnati
SEC 3-8 Memphis
Duke’s Mayo
Jan. 2, 2026
SEC 3-8 James Madison
ACC 5-7 Wake Forest
Holiday
Jan. 2, 2026
ACC 2-4 SMU
Pac-12 4 Washington
Bahamas/TBD
undefined NaN, NaN
MAC Miami (OH)
CUSA Western Kentucky
BowlMatchup
Playoff
Dec. 19, 2025
7 Ole Miss
10 Alabama
Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025
6 Texas A&M
11 Virginia
Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025
5 Oregon
12 Tulane
Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025
8 Oklahoma
9 Notre Dame
Cotton
Dec. 31, 2025
3 Indiana
A&M/UVA winner
Orange
Jan. 1, 2026
4 Texas Tech
ORE/Tulane winner
Rose
Jan. 1, 2026
1 Ohio State
ND/OU winner
Sugar
Jan. 1, 2026
2 Georgia
Ole Miss/Bama winner
Fiesta
Jan. 8, 2026
QF winner
QF winner
Peach
Jan. 9, 2026
QF winner
QF winner
Championship
Jan. 19, 2026
SF winner
SF winner