Thursday night’s matchup at Ford Field feels like a pivot point for both teams in the NFC playoff race. Detroit comes in at 7–5 after dropping two of its last three, clinging to wild-card position while trying to keep faint NFC North title hopes alive behind the Bears and Packers. Dallas (6–5–1) has surged back into the picture with three straight wins over the Raiders, Eagles, and Chiefs, tightening its grip on a wild-card spot and staying within striking distance of the Eagles in the NFC East.

Both offenses have carried the load: the Lions rank near the top of the league at just over 29 points per game, while the Cowboys sit second in scoring with a prolific passing attack, but each defense has sprung leaks that make this feel like a high-variance, playoff-style shootout under the lights.

Injuries, especially around Amon-Ra St. Brown, hang over everything Detroit wants to do on Thursday. The Lions’ star receiver sprained his ankle in the Thanksgiving loss to Green Bay and has now missed multiple practices; he has described his status for the Cowboys game as “up in the air,” and most reports expect a true game-time call. Detroit is already thin at wideout with Kalif Raymond likely out again, corner Terrion Arnold headed to injured reserve with a shoulder injury, and multiple starters in the trenches banged up, including right tackle Penei Sewell and left tackle Taylor Decker, who have been managing shoulder issues on this short week.

Dallas has its own concerns, most notably pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney (hamstring) and safety Malik Hooker (back) listed as questionable, while top corner Trevon Diggs remains on injured reserve, leaving a secondary that will be stressed if St. Brown can go and play near full strength. How those injuries shake out, especially whether Jared Goff has his favorite target at anything close to 100 percent, could ultimately decide whether this becomes a Lions statement win at home or another step in the Cowboys’ late-season climb up the NFC ladder.

In light of the recent injury news, the data analysts at Dimers produced an early look at their Lions vs. Cowboys score prediction and player stat projections. The results of Dimers’ simulations were compared to updated sportsbook odds to compile the data-driven Lions-Cowboys preview below.

Lions vs. Cowboys betting preview

Utilize the interactive widget below to discover the current spread, total, and moneyline betting odds and probabilities for the Lions-Cowboys matchup at Ford Field.

This prediction and best bet for Thursday’s NFL matchup between Detroit and Dallas is from Dimers.com, a reliable source for sports betting predictions.

Game details

Key information on the Giants vs. Patriots matchup, including where the game is and what time it kicks off.

OddsSpread: Lions favored at -3.5Total (Over/Under): 54.5Moneyline Odds: Cowboys +142, Lions -160

The odds and lines presented in this article are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Expert Prediction: Lions vs. Cowboys

Dimers’ 10,000-simulation model gives Detroit a 60 percent win probability and projects a tight finish at Ford Field. The model’s predicted score lands at Lions 28, Cowboys 25, reflecting Detroit’s slight edge in offensive efficiency and red-zone conversion rate. Dallas keeps it close behind Dak Prescott’s passing volume, but the simulations lean toward the Lions controlling the fourth quarter at home.

Best Bet: Lions Moneyline (-160)

With Detroit favored in both win probability and the projected final score, the straight moneyline is the safest alignment with the model. The Lions’ offensive balance, combined with superior touchdown probability in key positions, supports this pick.

NFL Player Props: Lions vs. CowboysAnytime TD & First TD ProbabilitiesPlayerTeamAnytime TD %First TD %Jahmyr GibbsLions65.4%12.9%Amon-Ra St. BrownLions45.8%7.4%David MontgomeryLions45.6%7.4%Jameson WilliamsLions44.2%7.1%Isaac TeSlaaLions28.8%4.1%Javonte WilliamsCowboys53.6%11.0%CeeDee LambCowboys42.2%7.9%George PickensCowboys41.6%7.7%Jake FergusonCowboys34.1%6.0%KaVontae TurpinCowboys14.4%2.2%Projected Stat Leaders: Lions vs. CowboysCategoryCowboys LeaderProjectionLions LeaderProjectionPassing YardsDak Prescott272 yardsJared Goff254 yardsRushing YardsJavonte Williams73 yardsJahmyr Gibbs83 yardsReceiving YardsGeorge Pickens83 yardsJameson Williams84 yardsConclusion: Lions vs. Cowboys

The analytics point to a competitive matchup, but Detroit holds clear statistical advantages in win probability, rushing efficiency, and touchdown projection. The Lions’ balanced attack and stronger late-game simulations make Lions Moneyline among the best actionable plays.

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