The NFL schedule-makers are at it again. After serving up some tasty matchups for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, they may have given us an even better lineup in Week 14, starting with the Dallas Cowboys vs. the Detroit Lions on Thursday.
It is one of six matchups this week that stand above the rest in terms of shaking up the NFL playoff picture. Cowboys-Lions is not quite a “loser-goes-home” contest, but it’s about as close as it gets in early December. Given the stakes, that’s the game we’re going to start with as we let The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, powered by my NFL Projection Mode, give us an idea of how much this week’s slate could affect the playoff picture.
After losing a key NFC North matchup to the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving, the Lions have playoff odds at just 30 percent. Making matters worse is that Amon-Ra St. Brown left the game with an ankle injury, and his status for this week is unknown. Even if he is good to go, will he be 100 percent? I’m skeptical. If the Lions don’t prevail, their playoff odds plummet to 12 percent. Part of the reason that number is so low is their rough remaining schedule, as Detroit heads on the road to play the Los Angeles Rams next week and still has matchups with the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Chicago Bears looming.
But enough negativity. If Detroit can pull out a win, its playoff odds jump to 45 percent, which means the Lions still have a solid shot at making the postseason for the third straight season.
As for the Cowboys, all they’ve done the past two weeks is beat the two teams that met in the Super Bowl last year (the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs). But is it too little too late? The Cowboys are still on the outside looking in, with odds to make the playoffs sitting at 21 percent.
Obviously, a win against another NFC team that’s shooting for a wild-card spot would be huge, as Dallas’ odds would jump to 41 percent. Even better for the Cowboys, they have a much easier remaining schedule than the Lions, as Dallas only faces one more team in the playoff hunt. However, even if the Cowboys defeat the Lions, the Minnesota Vikings, the Washington Commanders and the New York Giants, their odds will still only sit at 78 percent to make the playoffs. In other words, they need some help.
My model remains skeptical of the Bears, as they’re only projected to make the playoffs 77 percent of the time despite being the NFC’s top seed right now. The primary reason my model isn’t a believer is because of Chicago’s brutal remaining schedule. In the final five games, the Bears face four teams in the playoff race, including two dates with Green Bay.
A win this weekend will have the Bears sitting pretty for the playoffs (92 percent), but the bigger implication is on the NFC North title. Chicago has a 36 percent chance to win the division now, but a win in Green Bay boosts those odds to 69 percent. The Bears also face the Packers again in two weeks. If the Bears were to win both, they’d be above 90 percent to win the division, whereas losing both would cause their division odds to drop to 5 percent.
The Packers sit at over 90 percent to make the playoffs, so even a loss Sunday wouldn’t hurt them that much. This game is all about the division for Green Bay. A win gives the Packers a 71 percent chance to win the NFC North, while a loss drops them to 25 percent. That’s a swing of 46 percent in just one game. You won’t find a more impactful game in a division race this weekend. The Packers also have a tough(ish) schedule the rest of the way, with trips to Denver and Chicago awaiting, while playing host to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17.
The Indianapolis Colts’ recent stumble shouldn’t deter you from thinking they can make the playoffs; they’re still at 68 percent. A win over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday not only has the Colts back in a great position for a playoff berth, but also puts them back on top to win the AFC South. A win sees their playoff odds jump to 85 percent and their division odds soar to 54 percent. A loss doesn’t eliminate Indianapolis from a division crown, but it’s quite the uphill climb at 14 percent.
The rest of the Colts’ schedule is quite tough, however, as they’ll see the Jaguars again, host the San Francisco 49ers and still have road dates with the Seattle Seahawks and the Houston Texans. That’s the second-toughest remaining schedule in the NFL, per my model.
A win for the Jaguars will have them sitting pretty, as their playoff odds jump to 96 percent and their AFC South odds rise to 65 percent. A loss doesn’t set them back quite as far in the playoff hunt, as they’ll still be north of 70 percent.
The Jaguars are in a similar position to the Packers in that this game is all about the division. Their division title odds swing by 46 percent based on the result of this game. The Jaguars have the New York Jets and the Tennessee Titans remaining to make their schedule a bit easier than Indy’s, but Jacksonville still has trips to the Denver Broncos and the Colts.
The Texans have rattled off four straight wins, with three coming against potential AFC playoff teams, and they’ll try for another Sunday. This game against the Chiefs, though, might be their most important yet. A win pushes Houston’s playoff odds from 60 percent to 85 percent. A loss drops them to 46 percent. That’s a massive swing for a non-division game.
Of course, the Chiefs are in the hunt for a wild-card berth, so that’s why the swing is so large. If the Texans come away with a victory, they’ll be set up nicely with home games against the Arizona Cardinals and the Las Vegas Raiders before two pivotal games at the end of the season, against the Los Angeles Chargers and at home against the Colts.
Oh, the Chiefs. Every week, we think they’re going to find their rhythm and get back on track, and yet, here they are with a 37 percent chance to make the playoffs. A win raises their odds to 51 percent, while a loss drops them to 11 percent. More importantly, a loss means that even if they win their four remaining games, they’ll be just 40 percent to make the playoffs. That’s the lowest playoff percentage of any combination of winning four of the last five. In other words, if the Chiefs are going to drop one more game, this one against the Texans is the worst one to lose.
Note that winning out only gives Kansas City a 98 percent chance of making the playoffs; that’s how big a hole quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs need to climb out of.
As you can discern from the table above, Baltimore and Pittsburgh have virtually no path to a wild-card spot, which means both have to win the division to reach the playoffs. That means this game, and their Week 18 matchup, take on heightened importance.
For the Steelers, a split in the remaining two games sees their divisional odds jump to 38 percent from the current 30 percent. So, they’ll still need some more help in their remaining games. If they sweep the Ravens, however, their odds jump to 97 percent. A home game against the Miami Dolphins in Week 15 seems like a must-win, while their other two matchups are trips to Detroit and the Cleveland Browns.
After the Ravens suffered a somewhat shocking defeat at home against the Cincinnati Bengals last week, their playoff chances are cloudier. Baltimore is still in the driver’s seat in the AFC North, but with a struggling offense led by a less-than-fully healthy Lamar Jackson, things aren’t looking promising. The Ravens are at 64 percent to win the AFC North, but a loss drops them to 30 percent. A win gets them to 76 percent, but what they need is to beat the Steelers twice to solidify their standing.
A few weeks ago, the model said the Eagles were a virtual lock to make the playoffs, and while their odds remain great (94 percent), they’re no longer a certainty. What’s more interesting for Philadelphia is its odds to win the division. The team is at 90 percent right now, and a win pushes it up to 96 percent. But this number is greatly impacted by the Cowboys’ result on Thursday.
If the Cowboys lose and the Eagles win, the division is all but locked up for Philadelphia. A Cowboys loss puts the Eagles’ NFC East odds at 96 percent before they even step onto the field Monday in Los Angeles. The worst-case scenario is still good for the Eagles. If they were to lose after a Cowboys victory, the Eagles still win the division 72 percent of the time. There is cause for concern in Philadelphia, but there is no need to panic just yet.
The projection for the Chargers is dependent on whether quarterback Justin Herbert gives it a go after undergoing hand surgery Monday. He plans to play, but these numbers are subject to change if we learn he’s not suiting up. For now, though, the Chargers sit at 61 percent to make the playoffs, and if they win Monday, they’ll jump to 74 percent. A loss, however, drops the Chargers to 50 percent, and if Herbert’s broken hand remains a detriment, it’s fair to say that number should be even lower. And the schedule does them no favors.
The Chargers have the NFL’s hardest remaining schedule per my model, with trips to Kansas City, Dallas and Denver while also playing host to the Texans.