What a fascinating season. And by fascinating, I mean absurd.
The Cleveland Browns trailed the San Francisco 49ers only 10-8 on Sunday when they decided to go for it on fourth-and-1 at their own 33 and … snap the ball to a tight end. Yeah, they lost 26-8.
It’s been impossible to predict what’s going to happen week to week, thanks in particular to the brooding Philadelphia Eagles, “Back foot” Bo Nix, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ overhyped defense, the Bryce Young roller coaster, injuries, special teams breakdowns and all the fourth-down heroism. (Why does everybody hate kickers all of a sudden?)
We’re staring a postseason without Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs or Dan Campbell’s Detroit Lions right in the face. And if they lose Sunday, maybe the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens, too. How weird would that be?
Joe Burrow reminded everyone how cool he is when he came back from toe surgery to shock the Ravens last week. Now, he gets the Bills in what he hopes is the next step in the Cincinnati Bengals’ miraculous run to the playoffs.
As for me, yeah, I hear the trumpets, but I would be happier about getting back to .500 on the season if I did a better job of picking the best bets. We’ll just roll with Burrow, who happens to be 2-0 straight up and ATS in his career against the Bills.
Last week’s record: 10-6 against the spread, 2-3 on best bets
Season record: 94-94-6 against the spread, 31-34 on best bets
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3) | 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime
Quinnen Williams has been the best defensive tackle in the league — with a league-high 21 pressures and great run defense — since the Cowboys traded for him. The Lions’ offensive line has been so banged-up and ineffective that they tried to wheel in a retired guy last week, and he failed his physical.
Add in that 5-foot-9 Amik Robertson and the hobbled Lions corners will continue to struggle — last in the NFL since Week 10 in explosive pass rate allowed (21 percent) — against the hottest receiving duo (and among the tallest) in the league, and we get why this spread is so low.
The pick: Cowboys
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
For all the talk of Daniel Jones’ leg injury, the Colts are fading because Jonathan Taylor hasn’t hit 100 yards in three of the past four games. The last time these teams met, in the regular-season finale last season, Taylor ran 34 times for 177 yards. The Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence is coming off the least-impressive three-game winning streak ever. I trust the guy with the broken leg more.
The pick: Colts
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-4) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Cam Ward wins the quarterback matchup for the first time this season. Shedeur Sanders is 7 of 25 (28 percent) with zero touchdowns and two interceptions when pressured since taking over at QB for the Browns, while the Titans are 10th in the NFL in pressure rate over the past two weeks (39 percent of dropbacks). I have zero faith in interim coach Mike McCoy, though. In what might be a first, I am going to make a pick based on special teams.
The pick: Titans
Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
I like to go against the grain. But not when the grain is sitting out in the cold too long. It’s supposed to be 38 degrees at kickoff on Sunday, and Tua Tagovailoa is 0-7 in career starts when it’s 46 degrees or colder. Never mind that he owns the Jets (6-0). We’re going for three straight ATS with Tyrod Taylor and the Jets.
The pick: Jets
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Burrow threw for four touchdowns, no interceptions and 590 yards in those two wins (one in the playoffs) over the Bills, but the biggest reason to take the points here is that the Bengals really worked on their run game while he was gone. The blocking has been crisp, and they’re averaging 4.5 yards a pop the past three games, returning Chase Brown to the good graces of fantasy owners across the land. The Bills are 30th in defensive EPA per rush.
The pick: Bengals
Joe Burrow is 2-0 against the Bills. (Mitch Stringer / Imagn Images)
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Buccaneers throttled the Saints in the first matchup, and we see no reason they won’t again. Especially with Bucky Irving back. The Bucs’ defense has struggled to get home despite blitzing so often, but that doesn’t hurt them as much against bad teams.
The pick: Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Atlanta Falcons | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Kirk Cousins against a very good defense. Don’t like that. The Falcons just lost to the Jets and have also lost three straight at home. Don’t like that. And Drake London (knee) didn’t practice Wednesday. Don’t like that.
The pick: Seahawks
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
This is a bad pick. I am riding with the Steelers, a week after their home fans were booing and calling for Mike Tomlin’s job. The defense will have some pride against a limited Lamar Jackson, and Aaron Rodgers will complete a pass past 20 yards. (Rodgers has targeted receivers 10-plus yards downfield on just 24 percent of his passes, the lowest rate of any qualified QB.)
Rodgers isn’t the only one struggling. Jackson is not only having trouble running like he used to, but also since Week 9, he has the NFL’s highest off-target rate (18 percent of attempts), including a league-worst 35 percent on third down. Maybe this isn’t such a bad pick. (It is.)
The pick: Steelers
Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Commanders came through and covered the spread in overtime last week, playing hard for their coach and making some really clutch throws and improbable catches. The odds of Marcus Mariota doing that again … on the road … are not good. Plus, the Commanders don’t get any pressure on QBs, so Justin Jefferson will get more than two catches this week.
The pick: Vikings
Denver Broncos (-7.5) at Las Vegas Raiders | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Broncos, who lead the league in sacks by a lot, failed to cover the spread a month ago against the Raiders and their historically bad offensive line. That might have been a true miracle. Denver is having trouble running the ball since J.K. Dobbins went down, but I won’t be asking for another miracle.
The pick: Broncos
Los Angeles Rams (-8) at Arizona Cardinals | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
After last week’s loss in Carolina, Rams coach Sean McVay went on and on about how his team didn’t overlook the Panthers. Which means they obviously did. Their defense should be plenty mad this week.
The Cardinals have lost seven games by four or fewer points, but they are 1-5 at home and have scored more than 14 points only once in their past four games against the Rams. Since being traded to the Rams in 2021, Matthew Stafford is 6-2 against the Cardinals with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions, including 3-1 with seven TDs and one pick on the road.
The pick: Rams
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
No one could have predicted the Bears running the ball down the Eagles’ throats. But one can guess that Caleb Williams will struggle against the Packers’ defense. Williams has the lowest completion percentage (58.1) in the league despite throwing into tight windows at the lowest rate (10.6 percent). Ben Johnson really has done a great job getting the Bears to 9-3 … 9-4 after Sunday.
The pick: Packers
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
The reason the Chiefs lost to the Cowboys last week was simple — they blitzed Dak Prescott 19 times, got pressure on seven of them (no sacks) and Prescott was 15 of 19 for 190 yards. I don’t see C.J. Stroud having similar success — he was sacked 10 times and had two TD passes in two losses to K.C. last year — so I am taking the Chiefs at home, even though they are missing some key offensive linemen against the Texans’ nasty defense.
The pick: Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN
The Eagles are 4-4 ATS over the past eight games, and it feels like we haven’t gotten them all wrong. I want to go with the Chargers at home, because Jalen Hurts doesn’t want to run and looks disinterested at times. But Justin Herbert is going to try to play a week after having surgery on his broken left hand.
The pick: Eagles
Best bets: We can’t pick against the Browns or Titans since they’re playing each other. Give us the Packers and Buccaneers to take care of business at home, while the Rams and Broncos torch the Cardinals and Raiders, respectively. And we’re taking Burrow and the Bengals in two spots, here and …
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): The Bengals came through for us in this spot at +260 last week, so we’ll just let that ride on them +225 against the Bills.
— TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.