Week 13 was a great week for upset picks for the SI panel. Gilberto Manzano cashed in on the Green Bay Packers at +130 on FanDuel over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, and both Matt Verderame and Peter Dewey won on the Houston Texans, upsetting the Indianapolis Colts, at +180.

We move on to Week 14, which will mark the final week of BYEs this NFL season. Let’s hope for another strong week of upset predictions.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Jacksonville Jaguars (+105) vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are a mess. They’re missing Sauce Gardner (calf) and DeForest Buckner (neck), arguably the two best defensive players on the team. Then there’s Daniel Jones, who is gutting it out on a daily basis with a fractured fibula. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have won three straight and haven’t lost to the Colts at home since 2014.

While Indianapolis is understandably a slight favorite in the game, it feels like things are starting to snowball on a team that, for the first two months of the season, was the league’s darling.

Cincinnati Bengals (+230) vs. Buffalo Bills

After hitting on a few dogs last week, I might be overconfident on this one, but I liked what I saw from Joe Burrow in his return performance vs. the Ravens. Burrow could have had better numbers, but his inexperienced receivers struggled to get on the same page before Cincy’s offense picked up the pace in the second half in Baltimore. The combination of Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase could have plenty of success against Buffalo’s suspect defense. 

Chicago Bears (+265) vs. Green Bay Packers

It’s time to start believing in the Chicago Bears. Despite the metrics showing they aren’t nearly as good as their record, they find ways to win games. Whether it’s against an inferior or superior opponent, they’ll squeak out a win via strong play by their offensive line, winning the turnover battle, and taking advantage of late-game opportunities.

The Packers have been the complete opposite of that this season. Their underlying metrics are elite, but they’ve let moments and games slip through their grasp more than once. The Packers’ defense ranks outside the top 10 in opponent rush success rate, while the Bears are first in offensive rush success rate. That could be the difference-maker, and it’s enough for me to back the Bears as my upset pick of the week.

Chicago Bears (+265) vs. Green Bay Packers

Can Ben Johnson’s Chicago Bears do it again?

Chicago continues to win close games, and it turned in arguably its best showing of the 2025 season on Black Friday against the Philadelphia Eagles, winning outright as a seven-point road underdog.

Chicago is now 4-2 against the spread as a road underdog this season, and it could be frisky against a Green Bay team that has put up some clunkers (losses to Cleveland and Carolina) against inferior teams while going just 3-3 against the number at home.

The Packers are an elite defense – ranking fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed – but the Bears are starting to get healthy on the defensive side of the ball as well, moving to 18th in the league in EPA/Play this season.

Chicago is an underdog for a reason – the market still doesn’t believe in this team – but how many times do the Bears have to hang around and win a close game before we take them seriously? I love Chicago to cover the 6.5 points, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it upsets a Green Bay team that has been up and down at times this season.

Let’s get bold in Week 14.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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