The 2025 NFL playoff picture is finally taking shape. Or is it? As CBS Sports Research notes, we might be in the midst of the most unpredictable Super Bowl race ever, with five different first-place teams holding less than a one-game division lead going into Week 14, plus 10 different teams with championship odds of 20-1 or shorter. In other words, “any given Sunday” truly applies this year.
Which means there’s plenty of hope even for those on the outside of the current playoff picture. No stunning defeat is too damaging, it seems, in such a wide-open competition for postseason berths. Just ask the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, who can’t stop trading the top spot in the AFC North, where even the Cincinnati Bengals are clinging to improbable playoff chances.
Why, exactly, can fans of uneven clubs believe in their respective teams? Here’s one reason for hope for seven notable teams currently lurking outside the projected playoff field:
Note: Projected playoff chances courtesy of SportsLine simulations.
2025 NFL playoff picture: Here are the 14 teams projected to make the postseason with Packers taking NFC North
John Breech
Houston Texans (7-5)
Playoff chances: 58.7%
DeMeco Ryans‘ defense is championship-caliber. The Texans may not have a chart-topping offense as C.J. Stroud settles back in under center, but one year after the Philadelphia Eagles dominated the Super Bowl with a stingy defense, it’s not a stretch to suggest Houston’s unit can rival such production. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. are a freakish edge rushing duo, and there isn’t a single defense surrendering fewer points or yards per game entering the home stretch.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
Playoff chances: 37.6%
The remaining schedule is relatively light. It’s odd to have a dynasty listed as a long shot to make it to the dance, but the Chiefs have relied far too much on last-minute heroics. Still, with Patrick Mahomes doing more through the air as of late, a strong finish is conceivable. The Chiefs’ next two opponents (Texans, Chargers) have proven vulnerable with injury-riddled offenses, and two of their last three are against lowly squads in the Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans.
Miami Dolphins (5-7)
Playoff chances: <1%
The defense is turning a corner. Mike McDaniel might not be able to squeeze Pro Bowl production out of Tua Tagovailoa anymore, but Miami has avoided the catastrophic collapse for which it seemed destined by tightening the screws on “D.” Seasoned veterans like Bradley Chubb, Jordyn Brooks and Minkah Fitzpatrick have all stepped up to limit opponents, including heavyweights like the Bills, to an average of just 14.3 points per game over the last three weeks.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)
Playoff chances: 45.1%
The Ravens refuse to secure the North. In truth, there’s not a lot to like about Pittsburgh right now. Aaron Rodgers fully looks his age (41) as he battles a wrist injury and, apparently, unreliable support from his middling pass catchers. Mike Tomlin’s big-name defense has way more bark than bite. And yet Baltimore, the current frontrunner in the division, is maybe just as volatile at 6-6 with a negative point differential. Tomlin also has a solid track record against the Ravens.
Carolina Panthers (7-6)
Playoff chances: 15.6%
Bryce Young won’t quit. All year, the former No. 1 overall pick has offered plenty of evidence to suggest he’s simply not built to weather the pace and size of the NFL. He’s also sandwiched four different fourth-quarter comebacks and five game-winning drives between the ineptitude. Typically that boom-or-bust operation wouldn’t be enough to forecast a playoff push, but Carolina also boasts a top-10 rushing attack thanks to the emergence of a new bruiser in Rico Dowdle.
Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1)
Playoff chances:Â 24.5%
Dak Prescott is on an MVP-level tear. There have been a few duds from the Cowboys’ longtime quarterback this year, but it’s saying something that he’s mostly overshadowed the drama of Jerry Jones’ defensive makeover. Even with CeeDee Lamb producing untimely drops, Prescott has zipped it all over the yard, displaying all-star downfield chemistry with George Pickens. He’s easily been the most prolific passer of the NFC East, which could haunt the slumping Eagles.
Detroit Lions (7-5)
Playoff chances: 37.8%
They can still move the ball with the best of them. It’s not that Detroit isn’t racking up the yards and points; the Lions rank third in both categories, ahead of title favorites and potential No. 1 seeds like the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots. The fundamentals and trenches just haven’t been nearly as solid, leading to iffier results on coach Dan Campbell’s notorious fourth-down efforts. We’re not counting out home run hitters like Jahmyr Gibbs, and we’ve seen Campbell turn adversity into improved focus before.