NFL bettors have been more selective for which teams to support after all the upsets that occurred last week.
The Packers, Cowboys, Bengals and Bears were all underdogs that won outright during the Thanksgiving slate. The trend continued into the weekend, with the Panthers, Texans and Jets also winning their respective games as underdogs. Ten of the 16 games saw the dog cover against the spread.
But even with all the upsets, it wasn’t a beneficial day for the Vegas sportsbooks because bettors cashed in on the 49ers, Chargers, Bills, Jaguars, Seahawks and Patriots all covering as heavy favorites. Still, bettors took notice of all the surprising wins. The public is split on a handful of games for Week 14 and there’s been more willingness than usual to back underdogs.
There’s been two-way action on the final two games of the week. The Chiefs are laying 3.5 points at home against the red-hot Texans for Sunday Night Football, and the Eagles are three-point road favorites against the Chargers for Monday Night Football.
According to John Murray, the vice president of race and sports at the Westgate SuperBook, the sharps sided with the Eagles when the line was -1.5 and -2.5, but the sharps are now on the Chargers with the line moving to +3 for the home team. Murray doesn’t see the line going over a field goal because his team has already accounted for the possibility of Trey Lance filling in for the injured Justin Herbert, who recently told reporters he’s aiming to play Monday despite having surgery on his non-throwing hand.
There aren’t as many unknowns for Texans-Chiefs. Bettors might have finally accepted that the Chiefs aren’t as mighty as they were in previous seasons. Murray is still seeing support for Kansas City, but there’s been plenty of action on Houston. It says plenty about the Texans’ stout defense that the Chiefs were 3.5-point favorites in Dallas last week and have the same odds for a home game they desperately need for their playoff hopes.
“I think there’s going to be a lot of money on both sides of this one,” Murray says. “It’s not that people don’t trust Kansas City, but Houston is pretty hot right now.”
The public, however, isn’t split on Thursday night’s clash between the Cowboys and Lions. The public is all over Dallas, which is being spotted three points in Detroit.
“I don’t think it’s surprising to see the public backing the Cowboys,” Murray says. “That’s what I thought would happen. … No sharp play on Detroit. Maybe they’re waiting for a better number.”
With more insight from Murray, here’s everything you need to know betting wise about NFL Week 14.
As for the biggest sign of bettors reacting to last week’s upsets, there’s a rare Pros vs. Joes game with the public backing the underdog in Packers-Bears.
The sharps are siding with the Packers, causing the line to move from -5.5 to -6.5 for Sunday’s home matchup with the Bears. But the public took notice of the Bears beating the Eagles on the road last week, taking control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
“I know the public is going to be backing the Bears,” Murray says. “And we actually saw some pretty sharp money on Green Bay at -5.5 here. It looks like the Bears are a popular public dog and the sharp group is on Green Bay. That’s going to be a very well bet game in the afternoon [on Sunday].”
The sharps are also on the Commanders and the Dolphins for this week.
Washington went from being a three-point underdog in Minnesota to now only receiving two points.
“The Minnesota quarterback situation has just been a disaster,” Murray says. “It’s been a nightmare season for the Vikings. We’ve seen some money come in on Washington.”
Miami went from -2.5 to laying three points for its road game vs. the New York Jets. This one was a bit surprising because the Jets are 8–4 against the spread this season, including beating the Falcons last week.
“The Jets are kind of like the Browns, where the sharp guys like to back them,” Murray says. “The sharp guys bet the Browns every week, although not this week.”
Sharp bettors can’t bring themselves to lay 4.5 points on the Browns, even though they’re hosting the atrocious Titans.
Vegas oddsmakers desperately need the Raiders to cover as 7.5-point home underdogs vs. the Broncos, but Murray isn’t holding his breath.
“I know we’re going to need the Raiders and I’m concerned about it,” Murray says. “We needed the Raiders pretty big on Sunday [vs. the Chargers], we needed the Raiders pretty big on Monday Night Football a couple weeks ago [vs. the Cowboys]. … It’s tough to trust them against any team that has a good defense.”
With all the upsets that have occurred, perhaps the Raiders come through, for a change.
*Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook
Buck the trend: Texans (+3.5) at Chiefs
The days of the Chiefs being favorites against most teams need to end. With all the injuries on Kansas City’s offensive line, it’s strange that oddsmakers are giving Houston and its elite edge rushers this many points.
This isn’t too good to be true. Take the Texans and don’t think twice about it.
Enticing Bet: Bengals (+5.5) at Bills
I can’t trust the Bills just because they beat up on the Steelers last week. It wasn’t that long ago this team got pushed around by Houston and Miami. I’ll take a chance here on Joe Burrow’s Bengals.
Moneyline Dog: Jets (+130) vs. Dolphins
Coach Aaron Glenn has turned a corner since the Jets started 0–7. Every phase of the team has improved and they’ve been competitive. Expect the Jets to do more of the same against the Dolphins.
SuperDog: Bears (+6.5) at Packers
I like the Packers to win, but this number is too high for a divisional matchup. Chicago will keep it close with its stout rushing attack.
Not So Risky: Lions (-3) vs. Cowboys
I’m going against the public here. The Cowboys played well at home against the Eagles and Chiefs, but they’re now on the road against an angry Lions team that really needs a win.
Stay Away: Chargers (+3) vs. Eagles
There are way too many unknowns for this prime-time battle. I would not be surprised if Lance ends up filling in for the injured Herbert.
Parlay: Commanders (+2.5) at Vikings; Colts (-1.5) at Jaguars; Broncos (-7.5) at Raiders
I’m with the sharps on fading the Vikings and their bad quarterback play. I’ll take the Colts to rebound in a coin-flip AFC South battle. And give me Denver to crush Las Vegas despite its track record of keeping games close vs. losing teams.
Favorite Fave: Seahawks (-7) at Falcons
The Falcons have no chance here with Kirk Cousins starting and probably no Drake London again. It’s going to be 11 against one, with Bijan Robinson having to face a top defense.
Best Over/Under Total: Cowboys-Lions (under 54.5, -115)
Lions coach Dan Campbell is going to pass up on field goals for failed fourth downs to annoy over bettors on Thursday night.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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