Rivalry Week delivered the chaos and clarity fans expected, and the playoff picture tightened dramatically as unbeaten and one-loss teams fought to secure their spots. With conference championships up next, the margin for error has disappeared for nearly everyone outside the top four.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0)
Ohio State Buckeyes tight end Will Kacmarek (89), running back CJ Donaldson Jr. (12), quarterback Julian Sayin (10) and tight end Bennett Christian (85) celebrate during the NCAA football game against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Mich. on Nov. 29, 2025. Ohio State won 27-9. Credit: © Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn ImagesThe Buckeyes have held No. 1 in all four of the committee’s prior rankings, and their recent win over a ranked rival (Michigan Wolverines) only solidifies their dominance. While schedule strength isn’t great compared with other contenders, their talent, consistency, and control of games makes a strong case for a top seed — even if they lose their conference title game.2. Indiana Hoosiers (12-0)
Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) hands the ball off to Indiana Hoosiers running back Roman Hemby (1) during the third quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn ImagesIndiana is unbeaten for the first time in program history, and despite a relatively modest résumé, their efficiency metrics are among the best in the nation. If they win the conference championship, it would be very difficult for the committee not to consider them for a No. 1 seed — they lead in the strength-of-record metric and even have a shot at a bye if all goes well.3. Georgia Bulldogs (11-1)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets running back Chad Alexander (27) is tackled by Georgia Bulldogs defensive lineman Christen Miller (52) and safety Zion Branch (2) during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn ImagesA strong win against rival Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and Texas A&M’s loss to Texas give Georgia momentum. Their wins over common opponents (including Texas, Tennessee, Ole Miss) help build a compelling résumé. Despite concerns about some efficiency metrics and occasional shaky games (e.g. modest performance against Georgia Tech), Georgia’s body of work — plus a likely SEC championship — should secure them a top-four seed.4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1)
Texas Tech Red Raiders players celebrate after defeating the West Virginia Mountaineers at Milan Puskar Stadium. Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn ImagesTexas Tech has been dominant this season, ranking very high in margin of victory and points per game, while limiting opponents to low scoring. The committee could reward that dominance, especially with Texas A&M’s slip; if Texas Tech wins the Big 12, their road to a first-round bye looks solid.5. Oregon Ducks (11-1)
Oregon celebrates a touchdown by Oregon quarterback Dante Moore as the Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies on Nov. 29, 2025, at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. Credit: © Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn ImagesWith a convincing win over Washington and efficiency rankings among the top five nationally on both offense and defense, Oregon makes a strong case. Even if Texas A&M stays ahead, the Ducks are in prime position to host a first-round game, especially as one of the top one-loss teams.6. Texas A&M Aggies (11-1)
Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed (10) warms up before a game against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn ImagesThe Aggies have earned respect for four road wins and for overall record; they remain in the conversation for a top-six slot despite a recent loss. Although their strength of record and schedule are strong, questions remain whether that will be enough to push them above teams like Georgia, Texas Tech, or Oregon.7. Ole Miss Rebels (11-1)
Mississippi Rebels defensive tackle Will Echoles (52) reacts in the second half against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn ImagesA win in their rivalry game and a solid résumé — including a quality win over Oklahoma Sooners — make Ole Miss a likely playoff lock and potential host of a first-round game. Though their only loss (to Georgia) keeps them below the Bulldogs, some committee members may favor them over Texas A&M — especially considering how A&M’s loss came.8. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)
Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) celebrates with Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman Marvin Jones Jr. (97) and Oklahoma Sooners offensive lineman Derek Simmons (66) after a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the LSU Tigers at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025. Oklahoma won 17-13. Credit: © BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn ImagesOklahoma’s elite-level defense plus critical wins — including back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama — bolster their case under a “bend but don’t break” profile. Still, offensive inconsistency (especially in rushing) hampers their efficiency metrics, making them a wildcard; the committee will weigh those flaws heavily.9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Aneyas Williams (22) celebrates with Notre Dame Fighting Irish tight end Ty Washington (7) after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn ImagesA commanding win over an unranked team in Rivalry Week shows consistency — something some contenders struggled with. Compared with teams like Miami Hurricanes, which also beat similar opponents, the Irish are holding their ground — though their margin for error is slimmer.10. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2)
Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) looks to pass the ball during the second half against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Credit: John Reed-Imagn ImagesAlabama capped their resume with a road win over rival Auburn and still have strong wins (e.g., at Georgia) on the year — making them hard to simply dismiss. However, their loss to Oklahoma and other hiccups make their placement precarious; a conference-title win could push them higher, but a loss may leave them vulnerable.11. BYU Cougars (11-1)
The BYU Cougars celebrate a fumble recovery by safety Raider Damuni (3) during the second half of the game against the UCF Knights at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn ImagesBYU’s only loss came to a top-tier team (Texas Tech), and their résumé features quality wins, plus solid strength-of-record and efficiency metrics. Still, compared with other bubble teams, BYU hasn’t been as dominant. Their playoff fate may hinge on whether they win the Big 12 — otherwise, they risk being edged out.12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
Miami Hurricanes wide receiver Malachi Toney (10) and running back CharMar Brown (right) celebrate a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn ImagesMiami enters the top 12 thanks to a convincing road win over a ranked team, a strong recent four-game run, and what some in the committee view as “eye-test”–worthy football. However, Miami trails in key metrics (strength of record, game control, schedule strength) compared with several other contenders — so while their inclusion is plausible, their ceiling appears to be No. 12.Conclusion
Indiana Hoosiers running back Kaelon Black (8) celebrates with Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Elijah Sarratt (13) after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
As the final ranking approaches, every contender knows that one more strong performance could mean a playoff berth—or elimination. The next weekend will decide who truly belongs in the first expanded College Football Playoff field.