Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

We’re getting our first Thursday night game of December, and things are starting off with a bang with the Lions hosting the Cowboys in an NFC showdown. This is the old “Thanksgiving leftovers” game where the NFL takes two teams that played on Thanksgiving and has them play each other the following Thursday. 

Speaking of Thanksgiving leftovers, it’s a good time to finish yours before they go bad. Last year, I learned the hard way that mashed potatoes definitely don’t last as long as you think they will. 

Anyway, we’ll have some picks and best bets for the game in today’s newsletter, plus we’ll take a look at Mike Tomlin’s future. 

As always, here’s your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Let’s get to the rundown. 

1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Cowboys at Lions
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This isn’t a playoff game, but it might feel like it, because both teams have their backs against the wall. With the Lions sitting at 7-5 and the Cowboys at 6-5-1, neither team can afford a loss. As a matter of fact, the Lions’ chances of making the playoffs will fall to just 10% if they lose this game. It’s also a must-win for the Cowboys, because if they lose, their chances will drop to 19%. (We actually have a story on the Week 14 games with the biggest playoff implications, which you can read here.) 

The Lions are favored by three points against a Cowboys team that has won three straight. So who is going to win? 

Here’s one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game:

Why the Cowboys can win: The Cowboys had one of the worst defenses in the NFL through the first half of the season, but after adding Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline, they’ve suddenly been able to turn things around. In three games with Williams, the Cowboys have surrendered an average of just 69.7 rushing yards per game. (They gave up 143 yards per game on the ground in the nine games without him.) The Lions are 0-4 this year when they’re held under 100 yards rushing, and with Williams on the field, the Cowboys certainly have the talent to shut down Detroit’s strong rushing attack. Why the Lions can win: The Cowboys have a -5 turnover margin, which is tied for the sixth worst in the NFL. They’ve turned the ball over at least once in five straight games, and if the Lions can take advantage of that, they’ll likely walk away with the win. The Lions are 6-1 this season when their defense forces at least one turnover. If Detroit can force the Cowboys into making a mistake or two, that will certainly bode well for its chances of winning. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Garrett Podell.

If you’re thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (odds via BetMGM):

ONE RB PROP I LIKE: Javonte Williams OVER 79.5 rushing AND receiving yards (-115): Williams has gone over this total in four straight games, and I don’t think we’ll see that streak end against the Lions. Williams has topped 79.5 RUSHING yards in three of his past four games, so he might be able to hit the over by just running the ball, but you also get the added bonus of receiving yards here. One thing to like about Williams is that the Lions have given up 120 rushing yards or more in three straight games after only having that happen twice in their first nine games. ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Brandon Aubrey OVER 2.5 extra points (-125): There aren’t a lot of great kicker bets in this game, but this feels like one that could hit. The Cowboys have the second-highest scoring offense in the NFL at 29.3 points per game, and because of that, Aubrey usually gets quite a few extra points attempts. The Cowboys kicker has topped 2.5 extra points in seven of his past nine games, and with a possible shootout looming, I fully expect the Cowboys to score at least three touchdowns, which will allow Aubrey to hit the over. 

If you’re wondering how my props are doing this year, I’m 29-25 (12-13 on kicker props and 17-12 on all other props). 

Now, it’s time for some picks.

PICKS FOR ‘TNF’

Pete Prisco’s pick: Cowboys 34-33 over Lions
Tyler Sullivan’s pick: Cowboys 30-24 over Lions
Jordan Dajani’s pick: Cowboys 36-23 over Lions
Jared Dubin’s pick: Lions 32-28 over Cowboys
My pick: Cowboys 34-27 over Lions

We’ve got some more picks for the game over on our CBSSports.com predictions page. 

2. One reason for hope for NFL teams on the playoff bubble

The Lions and Cowboys are both on the playoff bubble right now, which is not a good place to be heading into Week 14. When you’re on the bubble, it only takes one loss for that bubble to burst. With that in mind, Cody Benjamin identified SEVEN different teams who are on the playoff bubble right now. Since Benjamin is an optimist, he decided to come up with one reason why each team should feel good about their playoff chances. 

Let’s check out three of the seven teams on his list: 

Cowboys: Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level. There have been a few duds from the Cowboys’ longtime quarterback this year, but it’s saying something that he’s mostly overshadowed the drama of Jerry Jones’ defensive makeover. Even with CeeDee Lamb producing untimely drops, Prescott has zipped it all over the yard, displaying all-star downfield chemistry with George Pickens. He’s easily been the most prolific passer of the NFC East, which could haunt the slumping Eagles.Chiefs: The remaining schedule is favorable. It’s odd to have a dynasty listed as a long shot to make it to the dance, but the Chiefs have relied far too much on last-minute heroics. Still, with Patrick Mahomes doing more through the air as of late, a strong finish is conceivable. The Chiefs’ next two opponents (Texans, Chargers) have proven vulnerable with injury-riddled offenses, and two of their last three are against lowly squads in the Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans.Panthers: Bryce Young won’t quit. All year, the former No. 1 overall pick has offered plenty of evidence to suggest he’s simply not built to weather the pace and size of the NFL. He’s also sandwiched four different fourth-quarter comebacks and five game-winning drives between the ineptitude. Typically that boom-or-bust operation wouldn’t be enough to forecast a playoff push, but Carolina also boasts a top-10 rushing attack thanks to the emergence of a new bruiser in Rico Dowdle.

Benjamin’s got four more bubble teams, and if you want to find out who they are, we’ve got them here. 

3. NFL Week 14 picks: Texans, Jaguars and Bengals all pull off upsets
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It’s now time for everyone’s favorite part of the newsletter, which is where I round up three NFL writers — Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani and Tyler Sullivan — and we try to impress you by nailing all of our picks. Last week, Dajani put the rest of us to shame by going 12-4 straight-up. I don’t like being shamed, so I guess that means I’ll take Dajani down this week. 

Here’s how things work with our predictions: I’ll give you one Week 14 pick from each writer and then link you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all of their Week 14 selections. On the other hand, if you hate their pick, you don’t have to read their full story and can move on with your life.

Pete Prisco — Packers (-6.5) 28-20 over Bears. “The Bears lead the division and are coming off an impressive road victory over the Eagles, while the Packers beat up the Lions on the road. This is Ben Johnson vs. the Packers defense in terms of the key matchup. But I think it will be a Jordan Love game. He stays hot and the Packers win it.” Prisco’s full Week 14 picks are here. Tyler Sullivan — Texans (+3.5) 24-20 over Chiefs. “We know Houston is the No. 1 scoring defense and in total yards allowed, which will give K.C. headaches. What you might not know is that the Texans are an ideal matchup to nullify Patrick Mahomes’ improvisation. Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards outside of the pocket (73.4 per game), while the Texans are giving up the fewest passing yards per game (11.0) on throws outside of the pocket. … With C.J. Stroud back under center, the Texans have the capabilities to put enough points on the board offensively, as the defense bottles up the Chiefs’ offense en route to an upset.” Sullivan’s full Week 14 picks are here. Jordan Dajani — Jaguars (+1.5) 30-27 over Colts . “I find it fascinating that the Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014 — going 0-9 during this stretch. The Colts have not looked fantastic as of late, and you have to wonder how much Daniel Jones‘ fibula injury is affecting him. The Jaguars defense is not the Texans defense, but this is the same unit that destroyed Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers, 35-6, a couple weeks ago. You never know what you’re going to get with Trevor Lawrence, but I’ll take Jacksonville in a small upset.” Dajani’s full slate of picks will be released on Friday, but you can get a preview here. John Breech — Bengals (+5.5) 27-24 over Bills. “Not only has Joe Burrow gone a full calendar year without losing a game — he’s 8-0 over the past 12 months — but he’s also never lost a December road game in his career. The Bengals need to win every game from here on out if they want to have any chance at the playoffs, so they’re going to be desperate, and as you can probably already tell, there’s no way I’m picking against Burrow in this spot.” You can find the rest of my Week 14 picks here. 

For more Week 14 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page. 

4. Could Mike Tomlin be done in Pittsburgh: Ranking his most likely options for 2026

During the second half of Pittsburgh’s 26-7 loss to Buffalo on Sunday, an interesting chant broke out at Acrisure Stadium: Steelers fans were calling for the team to fire Mike Tomlin. Although Tomlin has been in Pittsburgh since 2007 — and he’s never had a losing season in that time — the team hasn’t won a playoff game in nine years. And with the way things are going, it doesn’t look like that drought is going to end this season. 

Also, former Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger went on his podcast this week and suggested that the Steelers and Tomlin should mutually decide to part ways. What all this means is that after 18 years in Pittsburgh, Tomlin’s future with the team finally seems to be at a crossroads. 

So what’s going to happen? Our resident Steelers expert, Bryan DeArdo, decided to take a look at the most likely options. 

Most likely scenario for 2026: Tomlin stays with the Steelers. While it’s noisy now, Tomlin remaining in Pittsburgh next season remains the most likely outcome for several reasons. Let’s start with the fact that the Steelers are currently tied for first place in their division and will be in sole possession of first place in the AFC North if they defeat the Ravens on Sunday in Baltimore. If the Steelers win the division and the subsequent playoff berth that comes with it, you can kiss any thoughts of Tomlin and the Steelers parting ways goodbye. There is a good chance that Tomlin will have to make changes to his coaching staff, especially on a defense that has woefully underperformed so far.Wild card option: Steelers trade Tomlin. If he was traded, Tomlin would join Jon Gruden, Bill Belichick and Sean Payton as notable head coaches that have been dealt from one team to another. That’s not bad company to be part of. In fact, being traded could elevate Tomlin’s legacy if he was able to mimic the success that Gruden and Belichick had after being dealt. Tomlin has built a Hall of Fame worthy career during his 19 seasons in Pittsburgh. A trade would not only give him a new opportunity to make an impact elsewhere, but it would also ensure his legacy in Pittsburgh as a championship-winning coach who successfully carried on the franchise’s winning tradition. 

If you want to check out every Tomlin scenario, be sure to read DeArdo’s full story here. 

5. NFL playoff projections heading into Week 14: Chiefs miss postseason for first time with Patrick Mahomes
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With just five weeks to play in the regular season, this is shaping up to be one of the wildest playoff races in NFL history. Heading into Week 14, there have been ZERO playoff spots clinched. That number won’t be changing over the weekend, because there’s not a single clinching scenario this week, which is something that almost never happens. The last time the NFL made it through the first 14 weeks without a single team clinching a playoff spot came all the way back in 2014. 

With all 14 spots up for grabs, we had Stephen Oh of SportsLine simulate the rest of the season to see who’s going to make the playoffs.

Here are the 14 teams projected to make the postseason, starting with the AFC:

AFC
1. Patriots (AFC East champion)
2. Broncos (AFC West champion)
3. Jaguars (AFC South champion)
4. Ravens (AFC North champion)
5. Bills
6. Colts
7. Chargers
First team out: Texans

AFC takeaway: Our projection has the Colts choking away the AFC South, which didn’t seem possible after their 8-2 start. If the Colts somehow MISS the playoffs, they’d become just the third team since 1990 to miss the postseason after starting 8-2, joining the 1993 Dolphins and 1995 Raiders. (We ranked every AFC wild card contender, and you can check that out here). 

NFC
1. Rams (NFC West champion)
2. Packers (NFC North champion)
3. Eagles (NFC East champion)
4. Buccaneers (NFC South champion)
5. Seahawks
6. 49ers
7. Bears
First team out: Lions

NFC takeaway: Since hiring Sean McVay in 2017, the Rams have been to the playoffs six times in eight years, including two Super Bowl appearances, but one thing they’ve never done under McVay is finish as the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. The last time the Rams earned the top seed came all the way back in 2001. They ended up facing the Patriots in the Super Bowl, which is mostly notable because those two teams could be on a crash course this year. 

If you want more details on the projections, including the individual playoff chances for all 32 teams, be sure to click here. 

6. Extra points: Chiefs-Cowboys on CBS sets NFL viewership record 

It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

NFL hits home run on Thanksgiving. A total of 57.2 million viewers watched on CBS as the Cowboys beat the Chiefs on Thanksgiving, which makes it the most watched regular-season game in NFL history. The Lions-Packers game drew 44.7 million fans, which made it the second-most watched regular-season game in NFL history. Joe Burrow’s return to the field also did a strong number with 28.4 million fans watching the Bengals beat the Ravens. That’s up 7% from the prime-time game last year and makes it the sixth-most watched regular-season game of the 2025 season. Basically, Thanksgiving was a huge success for the NFL this year. Deshaun Watson returns to practice. After tearing his Achilles twice over the past 12 months, Watson has finally returned to practice. The Browns opened his 21-day practice window on Tuesday, which means they have until Dec. 24 to decide whether to move him to the active roster. If they don’t activate him by that date, then he’ll be done for the season. That being said, even if he gets activated, it’s hard to imagine him playing this year. It would make much more sense for the Browns to let Shedeur Sanders and/or Dillon Gabriel finish out the year so they can see what they have in their rookie quarterbacks. You can read more about Watson’s return here. Mark Andrews gets hefty extension from Ravens. The Ravens star tight end, who has spent his entire career in Baltimore, received a three-year, $39.3 million extension on Wednesday. After dropping a two-point conversion that crushed Baltimore’s chances of winning against the Bills in the divisional round of the playoffs last year, it looked like Andrews might not return to Baltimore for the 2025 season. However, the Ravens decided to hold on to him, and he’s made that decision pay off so far: Not only does he lead the team in touchdown catches with five, but he’s also second in both receiving yards (332) and receptions (37). Pro Football Hall of Fame names five finalists for class of 2026. The Pro Football Hall of Fame has revealed the coaching finalist, the contributor finalist and three seniors finalists for the class of 2026. In a twist, former Bill Belichick (coaching finalist) could be going in with Patriots owner Robert Kraft (contributor finalist), because they were named the finalists in their respective categories. In the seniors category, former Bengals QB Ken Anderson, former 49ers RB Roger Craig and former Steelers DE L.C. Greenwood were named the finalists. The Hall of Fame selection committee will be meeting during Super Bowl week in February, and if any of these five candidates get approved by 80% of the committee, then they’ll be headed for Canton. As for modern players, there are currently 26 semifinalists. That will be cut down to 15 finalists later this month.Â