The Chicago Bears were expected to show improvement from last season under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, but beating out the two-time defending division champions Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings for the NFC North title wasn’t really on anyone’s bingo card. After all, Chicago went 5-12 in 2024 while each of its three division rivals posted at least 11 victories en route to postseason appearances.

Johnson’s squad opened the 2025 NFL season with back-to-back losses to Minnesota and Detroit, leaving many to believe it would be another lost year in the Windy City. But the Bears (9-3) won nine of their next 10 games, including each of the last five, and enter their Week 14 showdown with the Packers at Lambeau Field atop the NFC North – a half game ahead of Green Bay (8-3-1) and two in front of Detroit (7-5).

While many of Chicago’s victories came against opponents with sub-.500 records, the club rallied past the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-28 in Week 12 and put on an impressive performance in its 24-15 triumph over the defending Super Bowl champions Philadelphia Eagles in the City of Brotherly Love last week. The Bears never trailed in the contest as their second-ranked ground attack racked up 281 yards, with Kyle Monangai gaining 130 and D’Andre Swift recording 125 against his former team to give Chicago two 100-yard rushers in a game for the first time since Walter Payton (107) and Matt Suey (102) ran wild on Nov. 10, 1985 versus the Lions.

Chicago now faces a Green Bay squad that is eighth in the NFL against the run (98.3 yards allowed) and fourth in the league in total defense (284.8). The Bears are sixth in total offense (374.3 yards) and eighth in scoring (26.1 points), but the Packers allow the sixth-fewest points per game (18.8).

Green Bay also is on a roll as it has followed back-to-back losses to the Carolina Panthers and Eagles with three consecutive victories, including last week’s 31-24 triumph at Detroit. Jordan Love threw for 234 yards and four touchdowns – including a pair to Dontayvion Wicks, who is listed as questionable for Sunday’s matchup due to an ankle injury.

Love is 10th in the NFL with 2,794 passing yards and tied for seventh with 19 TD tosses while throwing only three interceptions and has gone four straight games without being picked off. The 27-year-old may have another wideout to target this week as Jayden Reed, who has been sidelined since Week 2 due to foot and shoulder injuries, could return to action. 

Reed woud be a welcome addition to a Packers offense that could be without both Wicks and running back Josh Jacobs. The NFL’s leading rusher in 2022 while with the Las Vegas Raiders, Jacobs also is questionable for Week 14 with a knee injury.

The Bears are not without question marks on offense as the status of both Monangai (ankle) and receiver Rome Odunze (foot) for the divisional showdown is up in the air. The 23-year-old Odunze leads Chicago in catches (44), receiving yards (661) and touchdown receptions (six).

Green Bay’s defense is led by Micah Parsons, who is third in the NFL with 12.5 sacks. Acquired from the Dallas Cowboys in August, the 26-year-old defensive end has recorded six sacks over his last three games and is 1.5 away from matching the career high he set in 2023.

Love’s ability to avoid interceptions will be tested as the Bears lead the league with 17 and also are first with a plus-17 turnover differential. Safety Kevin Byard III tops the NFL with six interceptions after recording two in 33 games over the previous two seasons and cornerback Nahshon Wright, who had one pick in 32 contests over his first three NFL campaigns with Dallas, is tied for second with five.

Even though it is a half game behind Chicago, SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team and its projection model currently like Green Bay’s chances of winning the NFC North. But the ITL team’s model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, feels a Bears win in Week 14 will make their outlook for the division title better than the Packers’.

A victory would give Green Bay almost a 67% chance to win their first NFC North crown since 2021 and reduce Chicago’s odds to 27%. Should the Bears triumph, their prospects would be better than 69% and the Packers’ chances would drop to just over 22%.

CHANCES OF WINNING NFC NORTH

TEAM

CURRENT

WITH WEEK 14 WIN

WITH WEEK 14 LOSS

DIFFERENCE

Chicago Bears

40.5%

69.6%

27.0%

42.6%

Green Bay Packers

52.7%

66.8%

22.1%

44.7%

Making the playoffs is almost a certainty for both the Bears and Packers, according to the model. Each team enters their matchup with a better than 81% chance of reaching the postseason, and a loss would reduce their prospects to no lower than 76%.

CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS

TEAM

CURRENT

WITH WEEK 14 WIN

WITH WEEK 14 LOSS

DIFFERENCE

Chicago Bears

81.8%

93.9%

76.3%

17.6%

Green Bay Packers

90.0%

95.7%

78.1%

17.6%

Green Bay is a 6.5-point favorite against Chicago in the latest NFL odds. The NFC North rivals split their two meetings last year, with each winning on the road. The Bears’ 24-22 triumph at Lambeau Field in the 2024 regular-season finale ended its 11-game losing streak against the Packers, who have won 28 of the last 32 clashes and are 107-95-6 in the all-time series.

The model believes Sunday’s showdown will be decided by one score. However, it feels Green Bay will cover the spread as it is predicting a 28-20 victory by the Packers.