The Athletic’s NFL playoff simulator is a fun, interactive tool that uses thousands of simulations to project various outcomes. Users can explore everything, from the likelihood of an NFL team making the playoffs or winning the Super Bowl, to their favorite team’s divisional odds, or even NFL draft positioning.

It can also be used as a nifty tool for finding betting value in the futures market, and if you play around with it enough, you may find that it likes your team’s chances a lot more than sportsbooks do. We found a few such examples going into this week.

To put it simply, we compared the implied probability of the odds vs. our simulator’s projections to identify betting value for the Week 14 NFL slate and beyond. Here are three betting possibilities that have value based on the numbers generated.

All odds as of Thursday at BetMGM.

AFC No. 1 seed

The Athletic’s playoff simulator gives New England a 59 percent chance of scoring the AFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye in the playoffs. That’s the equivalent to -144 odds. BetMGM is offering New England to win the AFC’s No. 1 seed at -110, so there’s betting value there.

There are only three other AFC teams – the Broncos, Bills and Jaguars – with a greater than 1 percent chance of winning the AFC’s No. 1 seed, per the simulator. Even if all three win in Week 14 (the Patriots are on a bye), New England’s chances of clinching the bye only drop to 51 percent, close to the current implied probability of 52.4 percent suggested by -110 odds. Plus, BetMGM’s odds suggest only a 28.3 percent implied probability that Denver, Buffalo and Jacksonville all win Sunday.

Further bolstering the rosy view of the Patriots claiming the AFC’s top seed? They play their final two games at home against the ailing Jets and the Dolphins.

Austin Mock, whose NFL Projection Model powers the simulator, explains why there is value in betting on the Pats in this spot.

“My model wouldn’t classify the Patriots as an elite team in the NFL this season, but they’re certainly inside the top-10. The main reason they’re heavily favored is their 26th-toughest remaining schedule. The Broncos, by comparison, play the 11th-toughest remaining schedule. So the team that they’re closest to in record has a more difficult path the rest of the way. The Bills, who I think are the best overall team of the three threats to the Patriots, have already lost head-to-head to the Patriots and certainly need a victory in Foxboro in Week 15 to stay in the race.

“Lastly, that leaves the Jaguars, and their schedule is comparable to the Patriots’ (25th toughest), but they still have two games against the Colts and a game against the Broncos. The key point here is that my model would make the Patriots a 3-point favorite over the Jaguars on a neutral field. All in all, the AFC is a mess, and the Patriots have been one of the more consistent teams in the conference. Considering the schedule edge they have over the Broncos, I think it’s fair to say there is value on them to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed.”

Value Bet: New England to win the No. 1 seed (-110)

NFC North

Venturing up to the frozen tundra, the Packers likewise have a 59 percent chance of winning the NFC North per the simulator, the equivalent to -144 odds. That’s more or less the same as what BetMGM is currently offering for the Packers to win the division: -140. But this is where the predictor can help us get ahead of the betting curve.

If the Packers beat the Bears on Sunday, the simulator says their chances of winning the NFC North rise to 71 percent (-245 on the moneyline). Green Bay is a -285 favorite on the BetMGM moneyline to beat Chicago, an implied probability of 74 percent. Given the chances of the Packers beating the Bears, and given what that win would do to Green Bay’s NFC North chances, that -140 to win the division looks pretty good right now.

Value Bet: Green Bay to win the NFC North (-140)

AFC South

The Athletic’s simulator has slightly more faith in the Jaguars to win the AFC South than BetMGM, giving Jacksonville a 42 percent chance, the equivalent of +138 on the moneyline. BetMGM is at 40.8 percent and +145, respectively.

The Jaguars still have two games remaining with the Colts, the closest team to them in the standings. One of them is Sunday in Jacksonville, where Indianapolis hasn’t won since 2014. Nevertheless, the Colts are 1.5-point road favorites, even though they have lost three of their last four and are just 2-3 on the road this season.

Indianapolis’s remaining schedule is difficult, to say the least. After Sunday’s game in Jacksonville, they play at Seattle, and home against San Francisco, at home for the rematch with the Jaguars and then at Houston. That’s five games against four teams with playoff aspirations.

Jacksonville has the two games against the Colts and a difficult road test in Denver, but the Jaguars also have games against the going-nowhere Jets and Titans, both of them at home.

Let’s say the Jags and Colts split their two remaining games, which seems like a reasonable outcome. That would give the Jaguars a 51 percent chance of winning the AFC South, according to the simulator, an increase from their current chances of 42 percent.

Meanwhile, a season split would put the Colts at 20 percent to win the division, a drop from their current 34 percent chance. If merely splitting the season series with the Colts gives the Jags a better chance to win the division and lessens Indy’s chances, and considering the Colts’ demanding remaining schedule, Jacksonville to win the division seems like the side to take.

Value Bet: Jacksonville to win the AFC South +145.