Just a few weeks ago, the Dallas Cowboys were seemingly dead in the water. After falling to the lowly Arizona Cardinals in a home Monday night game, Dallas fell to 3-5-1 and looked like it was about to trudge through a meaningless stretch run of the 2025 NFL season.

Oh, how quickly things can change.

Less than a month later, the Cowboys are now over .500 at 6-5-1. They’re on a three-game winning streak, which features impressive wins over the rival Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, last year’s Super Bowl participants. And the playoffs, should the Cowboys take care of business this December, suddenly feel attainable. That’s partly what makes Thursday night’s de facto playoff game between the Cowboys and Detroit Lions so pivotal (and so dramatic?).

How can the Cowboys actually make the 2026 NFL playoffs? Here’s their best path:

I realize this means the Cowboys have to finish the 2025 season on an eight-game winning streak, but … that’s kind of what has to happen. (Also, they really can’t afford to lose to the 7-5 Lions, one of the teams above them in the playoff picture. That would be a probable death sentence for the Cowboys’ postseason dreams.)

Per ESPN, the Cowboys only have a 16 percent chance of making the playoffs at the time of this writing. Their most likely playoff seed, barring a late-season Philadelphia Eagles collapse that would let them sneak into the top four, is the No. 7 position. That’s because there are four NFC teams with at least nine wins at the moment (the Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and San Francisco 49ers) and two others with eight wins (the Eagles and Green Bay Packers). That means almost everyone above the Cowboys has at least a two-game lead on them for a playoff spot. Essentially, almost everyone above the Cowboys has a higher margin for error.

Put another way: This is likely not the kind of season where 10 wins get you into the playoff dance; 11 wins is the bare minimum.

Outside of the Lions and Chargers, the Cowboys’ remaining schedule isn’t necessarily all that difficult on paper. But they still probably have to take care of business, no questions asked, if they want to be playing meaningful football in January.