Thanksgiving week is behind us, and a slate of big games gave us a profitable week — again — for my NFL Projection Model. I keep saying it: Eventually we will fall off a bit. But hey, we keep on winning, and I won’t complain. This week’s slate is packed with games with huge playoff implications, so let’s see if we can find some value.

Last week’s record: 2-1, +0.88 units
Overall record: 36-22, +12.18 units, +19.1% ROI

Two plays to start the week. It’s a small card, yes, and I’m interested in some other possible edges, but I need more clarity on quarterback situations as we get later in the week. So stay posted for any additional updates. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!

NFL Week 14 best betsDallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions under 54.5 (-102)

Worst price to bet: Under 54 (-110)

I don’t love betting unders when the Lions are at home, but this number is just too high for my liking. It’s been a few weeks now, but I think the Cowboys’ defense still might be underrated. A big factor here for me as well is the status of Lions’ wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. He left last week’s game on Thanksgiving with an ankle injury, and his status for tonight is up in the air. That’s a big blow to a passing offense that already lost Sam LaPorta for the season. An underrated defense, as well as a decimated receiving corps, spells trouble for points in Detroit.

Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-113) vs. Chicago Bears

Worst price to bet: Packers -6.5 (-115)

Maybe I’ll eventually learn my lesson on the Chicago Bears, but it won’t be this weekend. I don’t think the Bears are particularly good. They’re very reliant on explosive plays both on the ground and through the air, and the defense has propped up its numbers this year by generating a lot of turnovers. Luckily for me, Jordan Love has the third-lowest rate of interceptions and sacks among qualified quarterbacks this season. If the Bears can’t generate turnovers or negative plays against this Packers offense, I’m not sure they will be able to keep this within a touchdown.

Another angle I like here is that Caleb Williams has really struggled against defenses when they don’t send extra rushers. He’s 25th in the league against four rushers or fewer this year when it comes to EPA per dropback. That’s two edges that I like here, and you factor in the Packers at home in frigid weather, and it’s hard to pass up Green Bay.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons under 44.5 (-108)

Worst price to bet: Under 44.5 (-115)