It’s do or die time for the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys. While this isn’t a mathematical “must-win” game for either team, their playoff odds become extreme longshots with a loss on Thursday night.
What team has the statistical edge? Why are the Lions three-point favorites with the current trajectory? And who wins?
I’ll break it all down in this week’s Lions vs. Cowboys On Paper preview and prediction.
Lions pass offense (9th in DVOA) vs. Cowboys pass defense (29th)
It’s been a mostly solid season for the Detroit Lions’ passing attack and no statistical performance may have been better than last week’s game against the Packers. Down two tight ends, their starting center and left guard, plus no Amon-Ra St. Brown after the first quarter, the Lions still managed to move the ball surprisingly efficiently against a good Packers defense—and without much help from the run game, too. That should provide at least a little optimism going into this week, where they’re likely to be without St. Brown again and at least one starting offensive lineman.
For the season, Detroit ranks:
Fifth in yards per attempt (7.9)Third in passer rating (110.2)Eighth in dropback EPA (0.169)Ninth in success rate (50.1%)
In just about every metric you can find, this is a top-10 passing attack. Yeah, it’s a step down from last year’s top-five ranked unit, but it’s still a force to be reckoned with.
The biggest fault in this unit is pass protection. It’s not a massive problem—the Lions have the 15th-lowest sack rate and 21st pressure rate—but it certainly isn’t a strength, either. That said, the Lions have given up the shortest time-to-pressure in the NFL. So while they’re not giving up pressure at a ridiculous rate, it is coming in fast.
We’re going to have some trouble this week really getting a full grasp on the Cowboys’ defense. Because in order to be fair to them, we can’t look only at their season-long stats. They’ve been a much better defense over the past three weeks, which coincides with getting some players back from injury and the addition of Quinnen Williams. However, we can’t over-rely on recent data, either, because that involves small samples sizes against struggling offenses (Cardinals, Raiders, Eagles, and to a lesser extent Chiefs). So I’ll present splits for the season and the last three weeks (with Williams), and take both into account.
For the full season, this has been a pretty terrible pass defense. They rank:
29th in yards per attempt (7.8)32nd in passer rating allowed (109.0)28th in dropback EPA (0.192)27th in dropback success rate (50.2%)
For the last three weeks, they rank:
15th in yards per attempt (6.3)26th in passer rating allowed (100.2)21st in dropback EPA (0.043)16th in dropback success rate (44.4%)
It’s clearly been an improvement, but they still rank at or below league average in most statistical categories.
Where they have been more successful for most of the season, however, is pass rush. Though they only rank 19th in sack rate, their 35.7% pressure rate ranks 10th in the NFL, and their time to pressure is 21st. It’s not elite, but they have some threats.
Player to watch: Osa Odighizuwa. While Williams will draw a lot of the attention from the Lions’ interior offensive line, don’t lose sight of Odighizuwa. There’s a reason he was handed a four-year, $80 extension this offseason. The defensive tackle leads the team with 40 pressures—which also ranks fifth in the NFL among DTs. He may have only turned those pressures into 3.0 sacks on the year, but he is disruptive nonetheless, and that will be a challenge for a Lions interior OL that is banged up and still going through growing pains.
Advantage: Lions +1. Despite the injuries, Detroit is still a productive passing unit. Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and even rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa have proven to be reliable weapons, but the front will need to keep Jared Goff clean to stand a chance, and that’s why I’m only giving the Lions a single point advantage here.
Lions run offense (5th) vs. Cowboys run defense (28th)
Detroit’s inconsistencies in the run game continue. You never really know what you’re going to get week to week, and that speaks to some struggles along the offensive line. The Lions rank just 18th in run block win rate, 12th in adjusted line yards, but oddly third in PFF run blocking grade. That overall grade, though, is likely influenced by Penei Sewell’s ridiculous 97.7 run blocking mark, which is a full 7 points better than any other lineman in football.
For the season, the Lions rank:
Third in yards per carry (5.0)Eighth in rush EPA (-0.017)18th in success rate (41.1%)
Personally, I view this as a much more average rushing attack than the DVOA ranking suggests. The reason for the high marks is the rushing attack’s explosive potential. No team has more rushes of 30+ yards than the Lions (eight), but their down-to-down success rate suggests most stats are being skewed by those big plays.
Alright, let’s just jump right to the season-long splits vs. the last three weeks:
Season-long Cowboys run defense stats:
27th in yards per carry (4.7)29th in rush EPA (0.019)30th in success rate (46.4%)11th in yards per carry (3.9)10th in rush EPA (-0.139)7th in success rate (34.1%)
It’s a pretty massive improvement, but it’s hard to know how much to trust it given the strength of opponent. By DVOA, their last three opponents ranked 32nd (Raiders), 24th (Eagles), and eighth (Chiefs) in rush DVOA. So the only strong rushing attack they’ve faced was last week against the Chiefs, where they allowed 5.2 yards per carry and a 40.0% success rate (15th best of the week).
I’m not ready to crown this a top-10 run defense based on a small sample size, but I think it is fair to call them significantly improved. I’m thinking this is probably an average to below average unit right now.
Player to watch: Quinnen Williams. Similar to the passing matchup, I feel like this will come down to the interior line play. Williams has the best PFF run defense grade among all NFL defensive tackles (90.9).
Advantage: Draw. There are just too many unknowns here. I don’t know which Lions rushing attack will show up. I don’t know who will be playing left guard with Kayode Awosika questionable. I don’t know how good the Cowboys’ run defense really is. So I’ve got to call it a draw despite the huge discrepancy in DVOA rankings for the season.
Cowboys pass offense (8th) vs. Lions pass defense (11th)
Dak Prescott is slowly working his way back into the MVP conversation, and if the Cowboys sneak into the playoffs, those discussions will only grow louder. Now, part of the reason their left column is so green is because they throw the ball a ton. Their 446 passing attempts are third-most among teams who have played only 12 games. But their efficiency metrics are fantastic, especially once you move beyond that slow start. For the season, the Cowboys’ passing offense ranks:
Ninth in yards per attempt (7.5)Sixth in passer rating (102.2)Fourth in dropback EPA (0.225)Seventh in dropback success rate (50.6%)
We’re talking about a top-10 unit bordering on a top-five attack.
Their receiving threats come as a three-headed monster of:
George Pickens: 73 catches, 1,142 yards, 8 TDsCeeDee Lamb: 51 catches, 744 yards, 3 TDsJake Ferguson: 70 catches, 496 yards, 7 TDs
And while the Cowboys have a young offensive front, the pass protection is coming together nicely. They’ve allowed the second-lowest sack rate (helped out by Prescott’s mobility), but rank all over the place in pass block win rate (13th), pressure percentage (eighth), and PFF pass blocking grade (27th). They will be missing left tackle Tyler Guyton, who will be replaced by Nathan Thomas—Dallas’ lowest-ranked player in pass blocking grade (45.7). He’s given up 11 pressures in just 129 pass blocking snaps.
I’m not quite sure what the DVOA ranking is seeing, but I see a Lions’ pass defense that is plummeting. Ever since the “Legion of Whom” game against the Buccaneers, it’s been pretty ugly for Detroit’s defense. The problem has been two-fold: no pressure, and too many big plays given up by the secondary. Since Week 9, the Lions rank:
27th in yards per attempt (7.5)26th in passer rating (102.6)30th in dropback EPA (0.239)17th in dropback success rate (46.5%)21st in sacks (9)
For the year, the stats look better—but only a little bit:
22nd in yards per attempt (7.2)20th in passer rating (95.0)20th in dropback EPA (0.083)Seventh in dropback success rate (43.9%)11th in sacks (32)
It’s been talked about all week, but let’s highlight it anyways. There has been a critical failed marriage between pressure and coverage. The Lions rank dead last in time to pressure (2.92), but have the lowest yards of separation allowed per target (2.9). The secondary is doing all they possibly can, but the defensive front is asking them to cover for too long.
Player to watch: Pickens. The Lions give up more 30+ yards plays through the air than any other team. Anyone want to guess which receiver has the most 30+ yards plays so far this year? WRONG. It’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba (10). But Pickens is second with eight. Lamb is also tied for fifth with six.
Advantage: Cowboys +2.5. Yeah, this doesn’t seem like a great matchup for Detroit at all. Unless they can somehow find some pressure—defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard promised some shakeups this week—Prescott should have time and space to hit on explosive plays.
Cowboys run offense (15th) vs. Lions run defense (7th)
Much like Detroit, the Cowboys’ rushing attack has been fairly inconsistent all year. That said, they’ve eclipsed 100 rushing yards in six straight contests, even though their yards per carry have varied from 3.5 to 5.9 over that same span.
Dallas is one of the few remaining teams with a workhorse back, as Javonte Williams’ 198 carries dwarfs second place among running backs on the team (Jaydon Blue’s 20 carries). He’s enjoying his best season to date with 955 yards (79.6 per game), 4.8 yards per carry, and eight touchdowns.
As a team, the Cowboys rank:
Ninth in yards per carry (4.6)11th in rush EPA (-0.030)11th in success rate (42.7%)
A deep dive on the stats suggest Dallas’ rushing success is more of a reflection of the back than the offensive line. They rank just 20th in rushing yards before contact per rush (1.19), but fifth in yards after contact per carry (3.49). So Detroit will have to be at their best in terms of tackling. They typically are, allowing just 2.49 yards after contact per carry—the second best mark in football.
While the Lions have been giving up more yardage than normal recently, they are keeping efficiency numbers low. While they have allowed over 100 rushing yards in five of their last seven games, they’ve only allowed over 4.0 yards per carry in two of those contests.
For the season, the metrics remain pretty solid:
Sixth in yards per carry allowed (3.9)Seventh in rush EPA (-0.115)10th in success rate (39.0%)
Really, they’ve only been dominated on the ground twice all season: Week 8’s bogus game against the Vikings and Week 2 against the Bears. Other than that, Detroit has kept things in check.
Player to watch: Jack Campbell. The Jack Campbell Fun Fact of the Week: His 11.1% run stop rate is first among NFL linebackers with at least 180 run defense snaps.
Advantage: Lions +0.5. This is probably the only strength vs. strength matchup in the game, and I can certainly see it going either way. That said, I think it’s more likely that Detroit holds the Cowboys in check than Dallas gashing the Lions on the ground.
While I got the prediction right, picking Green Bay to sneak by 20-16, I was way off on how the game went. I whiffed on Detroit’s running game having the edge over Green Bay and gave the Lions far too big of an edge in run defense, as well.
In the comment section “Long Time Lions Fan” picked the Lions literally through tears in their eyes, and managed to nearly nail the prediction at 31-23. “ramster” was also just a point away with their 30-24 Packers prediction.
Enjoy your prize: A commemorative Frank Ragnow 2025 season plaque:
The Cowboys come out with a +1 advantage overall, and I remain puzzled as to why Detroit is favored in this game. Admittedly, Dallas is hard to figure out defensive right now, but the Lions offense is tough to analyze right now with all of their injuries.
What seems like the clearest advantage, though, is also the one that is most likely to turn this game. I don’t see many scenarios in which the Lions slow down Dak Prescott and company, and I feel like that will doom the Lions’ season—because it won’t get any easier next week. Lions 21, Cowboys 31.