Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 14’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams.

Glendale gets the late window with two franchises heading in opposite directions. One is fighting for seeding after a jarring loss in Carolina. The other just shut down its franchise quarterback, parked its blue-chip wideout and started treating Sundays like a live tryout. The Rams arrive at 9–3 with a top-five scoring offense and a defense that still gives up only 19.0 points per game. The Cardinals are 3–9, short-handed, and trying to squeeze one more competitive afternoon out of a roster already pointed at 2026. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 14’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford is the reason this number sits near double digits. He has 3,073 yards, 32 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 7.7 yards per attempt, and the Rams as a whole generate 27.8 points per game. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has been a stabilizer at 2,188 yards, 13 touchdowns and 7.2 yards per attempt, but that production lives behind an offensive line that has allowed 42 sacks and 191 pressures. Passing efficiency amplifies the gap: Los Angeles sits at 0.289 expected points added per pass while Arizona is at 0.189. Flip the ball around and the Rams allow only 0.016 EPA per pass; the Cardinals give up 0.171. That is a huge per-snap swing in a league where a 0.05 edge matters.

The high-leverage splits stack the same way. Los Angeles has finished 35 of 53 red-zone possessions with touchdowns, a 66.0% conversion rate that lives in elite territory. Arizona is at 56.3% with 27 touchdowns in 48 trips, good but not punishing. Over four or five red-zone drives each, that 9.7-point gap translates directly into one extra touchdown for the Rams and one extra field goal for the Cardinals. Third down is the lone area where Arizona can claim a statistical edge: 44.2% conversions against 38.0% for Los Angeles. Even there, the Rams have faced only 129 third downs to the Cardinals’ 163, which fits what the tape says about better early-down efficiency and more chunk gains.

The matchups on the perimeter are brutal for Arizona. Wide receiver Puka Nacua has 86 catches for 1,019 yards on 107 targets, with an 80.4% catch rate and a route portfolio that shreds both Cover 3 and quarters. Wide receiver Davante Adams brings 52 catches for 689 yards and 14 touchdowns, plus league-leading volume inside the 20. The Cardinals’ pass defense is allowing 25.5 points per game overall and 30 total touchdowns, with 24 sacks and 9 interceptions on the season. That is not the profile you want against a quarterback who has thrown 32 scores with just four picks, behind a line that has allowed only 17 sacks and kept his time to throw comfortable against pressure.

The one way an underdog like this usually stays around is by running the ball and shortening the game. Arizona does not have that lever right now. Running back Bam Knight is sitting on 255 rushing yards at 3.4 yards per carry with 4 touchdowns, and the Cardinals’ rushing EPA is -0.085 per play. Los Angeles is not blazing on the ground either at -0.045 EPA per rush, but running back Kyren Williams has 868 yards at 4.7 per carry with 7 rushing scores and 3 more as a receiver. Running back Blake Corum adds 422 yards at 4.7 per carry. In the context of a passing advantage this large, the Rams need their run game to be functional, not dominant. The Cardinals need theirs to be a weapon, and it simply has not been.

Rams vs. Cardinals pick, best bet

Context around the rosters makes the math heavier. Kyler Murray is done for the season with a foot injury after never really getting this scheme off the ground. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison is out again with a heel issue after already missing time with appendicitis. That leaves tight end Trey McBride as the focal point, and he has been fantastic with 88 catches for 879 yards and 8 touchdowns on 118 targets. Brissett to McBride will move chains, especially against zone on third down. But asking that connection, plus Knight and a thinned receiver room, to keep pace with Stafford feeding Nacua and Adams while Williams chews clock is a different ask than stealing one competitive game in Tampa.

Game flow should echo the numbers. The Rams can attack early with quick-hitting concepts versus blitz, letting Nacua and Adams work against a secondary that is giving up 6.8 yards per attempt and a 0.171 EPA figure through the air. If Arizona leans into pressure to compensate, Stafford’s history against zero blitz and this protection’s sack rate put explosive plays on the table. Once Los Angeles climbs in front by two scores, the run game and play-action keep drives efficient while a pass rush that already has 33 sacks squeezes Brissett behind that 42-sack line. Brissett and McBride will land some counters, because they are too competent not to, but the red-zone and passing-efficiency gaps make it hard to see repeated touchdown answers.

Laying near 10 in the NFL is never comfortable, and the line carries backdoor risk late. The underlying matchup still points firmly in one direction. The Rams hold the better quarterback, the better weapons, the better defense, the cleaner offensive line and the superior red-zone profile against a Cardinals team that has already turned toward the future. I expect Los Angeles to treat this like a correction game, not a trap, and to lean into their strengths long enough to pull clear.

Final score: Rams 31, Cardinals 17.

Best bet: Rams -9.5 (-115) at Cardinals

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For a prop lean, Blake Corum anytime touchdown at +275 is exactly the kind of correlated, sneaky upside I want with Rams -9.5. He has only 2 rushing scores on 89 carries, but the usage tells the story better than the box scores. Corum is sitting on 422 rushing yards at 4.7 per carry and just dropped 7 for 81 and a touchdown on Carolina in a game where he handled about one-third of the carries and most of the closeout work. That is the role you want when your team is laying 9.5 and projected near 30 points. The Rams own a 66.0 percent red-zone touchdown rate with 10 rushing scores already, and Arizona’s defense has allowed 95.8 rushing yards per game while living on the field too long behind a thin offense. If Los Angeles jumps ahead the way our handicap expects, Sean McVay can bleed the clock with Corum in the fourth quarter instead of burning extra hits on Kyren Williams. Books are still pricing Corum like a pure change-of-pace back; the game script and recent usage say he is the cheaper way into the same touchdown party.

Best prop lean: Blake Corum to score a touchdown (+275)

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