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The stakes get higher as each week passes by in the NFL.
It’s the final instance of bye weeks in Week 14, as we look to cook the books in the glorious world of sports betting props.
A bit of a slump has befallen us in the player prop market, as we are profiting just 1.57 units on the season, far below my previous numbers and below expectation overall.
It’s all in front of us as we head to Week 14 with the hopes of getting things back on track in the beatable player prop betting market.
Week 14 player props: Picks and predictions
Chase Brown Over 11.5 rush attempts (-122, FanDuel) | Over 17.5 (+620, Fanatics) | Over 19.5 (12/1, Fanatics)
The Bills-Bengals clash features two teams that are terrible at run defense.
So while everyone will be talking about the quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, I’m a bit more interested in the running backs.
These two defenses are No. 31 and 30 in defensive DVOA against the run, and the weather will be very cold. In theory, that should point to a more run-heavy approach.
Chase Brown has cleared 12.5 carries in three straight games and the Bills are so bad against the run, that I’d really be mind blown if Zac Taylor didn’t continue committing to the run.
Chase Brown may get some more work this week despite the Bengals’ hesitancy to run. AP
Brown topped 21 carries against the Browns in Week 1, and his totals of 18, 19 and 15 make me very bullish on his prospects in this game, even if it’s a potential negative game script.
He’s cleared 17.5 in two of his last three and the top half of this ladder in one of Burrow’s two full games.
We’re big fans of Brown this weekend, but be sure not to overexpose yourself. This should be a one-unit bet, with break-even being if Brown gets 12 attempts.
Betting on the NFL?
Quinshon Judkins anytime touchdown scorer (-110, bet365 Sportsbook) | 2+ touchdowns (+550, FanDuel)
We are certainly expecting a positive game script for the Browns against a terrible Titans defense.
With backup Dylan Sampson banged up and not practicing most of the week, I project that Judkins gets 90 percent or more of the carries against the Titans.
Tennessee is rated No. 27 against the run, according to FTN’s DVOA, which bodes well considering the Browns have fed their running backs more than nearly every team in the league.
Cleveland Browns running back Quinshon Judkins is very active when the Browns are projected to win. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Judkins has scored multiple touchdowns in each of the Browns’ last two wins, while also running some wildcat offense.
Tennessee is also allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs per game in the NFL (1.17), behind only the aforementioned Buffalo Bills.
Kevin Stefanski will want to shield Shedeur Sanders from inevitable mistakes, so Judkins is pretty much his only shield if they’re leading this week.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.